Thursday’s NBA slate features Game 2 of the Western Conference semifinals series between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Golden State Warriors. The Timberwolves are listed as 10.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 201.5 points.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
The Timberwolves are coming off a dreadful offensive performance in Game 1. They managed just 88 points, and a good bit of that production came long after the game had already been decided. They managed just 31 points in the first half, largely due to the subpar performance from Anthony Edwards. He was 0-8 from the field with just one point in the first 24 minutes, which put his team into a massive hole.
The good news is that Edwards was still able to salvage a strong fantasy performance. He did strong work on the glass, racking up 14 rebounds, while his scoring bounced back in the second half. He had 22 points from the third quarter on, knocking down 9-14 shots from the field. Ultimately, he finished with 52.0 DraftKings points in his 41.7 minutes.
Hopefully, Edwards can get started a bit earlier on Thursday, and nothing in his profile says he shouldn’t. He’s now posted a positive Plus/Minus in all but one playoff contest, and he’s averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute during the playoffs. Edwards is projected for another 42 minutes in Game 2, and he leads all players in median and ceiling projection. He also owns the top projected Plus/Minus on the slate, so he’s an outstanding stud target.
Jimmy Butler is the other big-name player in this matchup, and he’s going to have to put the Warriors on his back moving forward. Steph Curry went down with an injury in Game 2, and he’s expected to be sidelined at least through Game 4. The Warriors have a little bit of wiggle room after pulling off the upset in Game 1, but they’re going to be facing a significant uphill battle without him. Their offense has been appalling with Curry off the floor during the postseason, averaging just 92.3 points per 100 possessions.
Butler is going to be tasked with picking up the slack. He saw a team-high +3.63% usage bump with Curry off the floor during the regular season, resulting in an average of 1.25 DraftKings points per minute. The difference has been even more stark during the playoffs. His usage is up +7.16% sans Curry during the postseason, and he’s increased his production to a massive 1.56 DraftKings points per minute.
Butler is no stranger to having to carry a team during the playoffs. He did it for years with great success in Miami, and now he’ll have to do the same for the Warriors. He doesn’t grade out quite as well as Edwards in our NBA Models, but his upside is arguably a bit higher.
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NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
The Timberwolves took a big swing this offseason when they decided to flip Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo. The fit hasn’t always been perfect, but Randle has started to deliver for the Timberwolves when it’s mattered. He posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games to close out the series vs. the Lakers, serving as a competent No. 2 offensive option behind Edwards.
However, Randle saw just 30.6 minutes in Game 1 vs. the Warriors. That makes him feel a bit risky at his current price tag. We’re expecting a few more minutes in Game 2 – he’s currently projected for 35 minutes in our NBA Models – but the Timberwolves have a bunch of different directions they can go in with their frontcourt. Even at 35 minutes, Randle doesn’t grade out as a particularly good value in our NBA Models.
Draymond Green is not the same player that he was in his prime, but the Warriors are going to need more from him on Thursday. Fortunately, he’s shown that he still has some gas in the tank. He went for 37.5 DraftKings points in Game 7 vs. the Rockets, and he followed that up with 41.0 in Game 1 vs. the Warriors.
Green has also seen a +3.66% usage bump with Curry off the floor during the playoffs, which is the second-largest boost on the squad. That hasn’t resulted in an uptick in production, but it at least gives him a bit more upside. Whether or not he’ll make any shots is a different story, but expect him to be active for the third game in a row.
Rudy Gobert is a major X-factor in this series. He was able to absolutely punish the Lakers on the interior in their previous series, particularly in the team’s closeout win. He turned in one of the best games of his career, finishing with 27 points, 24 rebounds, and 62.5 DraftKings points. Against an undersized Warriors’ frontcourt, he has the potential to do the same.
However, the Warriors have been able to play opposing centers off the court during most of their championship run, and they did exactly that in Game 1. Gobert was limited to just 26.2 minutes, and he finished with just 28.25 DraftKings points.
The fact that the Warriors will be without Curry should help Gobert’s prospects moving forward. He’s not nearly as exploitable without Curry on the perimeter, which should allow Gobert to take advantage of his mismatch on the inside. That makes him an interesting bounce-back target, especially at what should be reduced ownership.
Buddy Hield has come seemingly out of nowhere to become one of the team’s most important players. He’s going to be even more important without Curry. The team needs guys who can put the ball in the basket, and Hield fits that description.
Hield has gone for at least 43.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and he’s had at least five 3-pointers in both. His shooting was otherwise pretty pedestrian in Game 1 – he was 7-19 from the field – so he has the potential to be a bit better in that department on Thursday.
Of course, he also has the potential to be a bit worse. Most of Hield’s value is derived from his jump shot, and players like that are highly volatile for DFS. Expect plenty of opportunities for Hield on Thursday, but at an elevated price tag, he has some bust potential.
Jaden McDaniels was a major key in their series vs. the Lakers. The Lakers tried to hide Doncic on him on defense, and McDaniels was able to make them pay. He racked up at least 37.75 DraftKings points in three of five games, including a 30-point performance in Game 3.
However, he doesn’t figure to have the same level of importance vs. the Warriors. They don’t have a clear negative on defense for the Timberwolves to exploit, and McDaniels finished with just 20.5 DraftKings points in Game 1. He should be a bit better in the peripheral categories than he was on Tuesday, but I wouldn’t expect a huge bump to his scoring numbers.
Brandin Podziemski stands out as one of the best values in this price range. His role has fluctuated a bit during the playoffs, but he played nearly 40 minutes in their Game 7 victory over the Rockets. That figure decreased to just 29 minutes in Game 1 vs. the Timberwolves, but they’re going to need much more from him with Curry out of the picture.
Podziemski’s production with Curry off the floor has been dreadful during the playoffs, but that’s over a small sample size. He averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute sans Curry during the regular season, which feels more indicative of his potential in Game 2. He’s also projected for 38 minutes, so he has the potential to provide immense value.
Naz Reid was the big man for the Timberwolves who ended up getting the most burn in Game 1. He played nearly 33.7 minutes off the bench, which was more than both Randle and Gobert. He responded with 30.25 DraftKings points, and Reid has always been a strong per-minute producer. If he gets an expanded role again in Game 2, he should be able to take advantage.
Of course, there’s no guarantee that happens. We currently have Reid projected for 28 minutes, and he has a wide range of outcomes in that department. He saw 21.5 minutes or less in three of his final four games vs. the Lakers.
Ultimately, Reid has negative correlations with both Randle and Gobert, so choosing between those three players makes sense. One will likely return value, and it will probably come at the expense of the others.
DiVincenzo rounds out this tier, and he’s another excellent value target. He struggled with his jump shot in Game 1, going just 3-11 from the field and 1-7 from 3-point range. However, he was able to pay off his salary pretty consistently vs. the Lakers. Outside of a game where he struggled with foul trouble, DiVicenzo posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games. That makes him a nice buy-low candidate.
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NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Gary Payton ($4,400): Payton should be one of the highest-owned value plays on this slate. He started the second half in place of Curry, and he’s currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, Payton has averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.24 when projected for at least 26 minutes (per the Trends tool), and he’s typically a solid per-minute producer when he gets the opportunity to play.
- Mike Conley ($4,000): Conley is nearing the end of his career, and his production has dipped significantly this season. He’s not seeing nearly as many minutes as in previous years, and his per-minute production is also down. That gives him minimal upside, even at a pretty cheap price tag.
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($3,200): Alexander-Walker is on the court primarily for his defense, which is pretty ironic when you think about how his NBA career started. He played just 14.1 minutes in Game 1, and he’s averaged just 0.55 DraftKings points per minute during the playoffs.
- Jonathan Kuminga ($2,800): Kuminga has been Steve Kerr’s “break glass in case of emergency” option during the playoffs. He clearly doesn’t trust him, but he dusted him off in the second half of Game 1 without Curry. He’s one of the team’s top remaining offensive threats, giving him excellent per-minute upside. How many minutes he’ll see is the bigger question, but his upside is too high to ignore.
- Kevon Looney ($2,600): Looney has posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past seven postseason contests, but his salary has crept up a bit in recent games. He could see a few additional minutes in this series to try to combat the Timberwolves’ size.
- Moses Moody ($2,400): Moody’s role has diminished as the playoffs have progressed. He saw just 8.5 minutes in Game 1, even with Curry missing the entire second half. He does have a bit of offensive upside – he’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute without Curry during the postseason – but it seems unlikely he’ll see a huge spike in minutes in Game 2.
- Quentin Post ($2,000): Post started a few games for the Warriors at the beginning of the postseason, but he’s basically fallen out of the rotation.
- Pat Spencer ($1,200): Spencer is pretty interesting at a near-minimum salary. He’s posted solid numbers when he’s gotten the opportunity to play, and he had 10.0 DraftKings points in 10.6 minutes in Game 1. He’s projected for 12 minutes in Game 2, and his price tag helps you fit both Edwards and Butler with one at captain.
Pictured: Jimmy Butler
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
