The NBA Playoffs continue with a four-game slate on Saturday, with the first game tipping off at 1:00, as the Heat host the Cavs in Game 3. That matchup is followed by a pair of Game 4 matchups from the Western Conference, as the Grizzlies try to avoid elimination against the Thunder, and the Nuggets try to even up their series with the Clippers. The final game of the night is the Warriors hosting the Rockets in their key Game 3 matchup after splitting the first two games of their series. As you build your lineups from the eight-team player pool, several strong options stand out that are worth considering.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
James Harden has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections on the four-game slate at point guard as well as the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position. He isn’t as expensive as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but he still brings an extremely high ceiling while saving $1,000 in salary.
Harden’s best game in this series was Game 1, when he produced 60.5 DraftKings points on 32 points and 11 assists. He only had 18 points and seven assists in Game 2, but then he bounced back with 20 points and nine assists, falling just one assist short of a double-double that would have pushed him over salary-based expectations. He still finished with a solid 42 DraftKings points.
He’s averaging 23.3 points, 9.0 assists, 5.0 rebounds, and 1.0 block in 38.7 minutes across his first three playoff appearances against the Nuggets and remains a strong pay-up play at point guard in Game 4.
Value
With Ja Morant (hip) listed as doubtful and likely to miss Saturday’s Game 4, Scotty Pippen Jr. will have to step into a much larger role. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards on the slate and the third highest at any position.
Pippen played 38 minutes in Game 3 and racked up 28 points to go with five assists, five rebounds, three steals, and an impressive 50.25 DraftKings points. He knocked down four three-pointers in the first quarter and didn’t look back on the way to his best performance in the playoffs.
In his 79 games this regular season, Pippen averaged 23.8 DraftKings points on a 19.8% usage rate. In his 30 games without Morant, he averaged 32.3 DraftKings points on a 20.9% usage rate while playing an average of 25.4 minutes per game. If Morant is ruled out, Pippen should have a strong opportunity to build on his Game 3 performance and be one of the best value plays on Saturday’s slate.
Fast Break
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at point guard. He bounced back from a down Game 1 with just 29.75 DraftKings points with big performances in Game 2 and Game 3. He finished with at least 49 DraftKings points in each of those games and has at least five assists in each of OKC’s three wins. SGA brings the second-highest projections at any position on Saturday, trailing only Nikola Jokic’s.
Tyler Herro had a strong game in Game 2 against the Cavaliers, posting 49 DraftKings points on 33 points in 40 minutes. He’ll continue to have an extremely heavy usage rate for the Heat and has at least 49 DraftKings points in three of his last four games dating back to the Play-In Tournament.
If you opt to pass up all the superstar point guards and go with a cheap play at the position, Luke Kennard is by far the best option. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards on the slate since he will likely step into a much bigger role without Morant. Kennard averaged 23.7 DraftKings points per game without Morant this season and has a very high ceiling as long as he can play through the Achilles soreness that has him listed as questionable for Saturday. Getting him just over the minimum salary means he doesn’t have to do much to be an outstanding value.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
One of the exciting new features introduced this season on FantasyLabs has been our partnership with ShotQuality. In the ShotQuality projections, Desmond Bane has the top median and ceiling projections at shooting guard and the third-highest Projected Plus/minus behind only Kennard and Pippen.
Bane’s salary is only a little over $7,000, but without Morant, he’ll have to carry even more of the workload for the Grizzlies, giving him an extremely high ceiling.
In his 25 games this season without Ja, Bane averaged 41.5 DraftKings points per game and showed off an even higher ceiling since his usage spiked to 25.6%. In Bane’s 15 games without Morant since January 1, he produced 44.4 DraftKings points per contest.
Bane went just 3-for-14 from the field in Game 3 and finished with 10 points and 30.5 DraftKings points. He was much better in Game 2, when he scored 19 points and had a double-double with 46 DraftKings points. Due to the Thunder’s excellent defense and his scoring inconsistencies, Bane isn’t a lock, but if Morant is out, his ceiling is too high to pass up since he becomes one of the top studs on the slate with a salary barely over $7,000.
Value
Aside from the Grizzlies, the highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard in both projections comes from Davion Mitchell, who continues to emerge as a strong contributor for the Heat.
Mitchell scored 18 points in each of the first two games of the series after scoring 15 and 16 points in Miami’s two Play-In Tournament wins. He exceeded salary-based expectations in each of those four games and in 17 of his last 18 games dating back to the regular season.
His defense will continue to be key, but his offensive emergence has also been a key for the Heat in their push to the playoffs and their first two losses to the Cavs. He should continue to get all the minutes he can handle and get the chance to keep contributing on both ends of the floor. He is an outstanding mid-range value play with a high ceiling after totaling 38 and 30.25 DraftKings points in the first two games of the series.
Fast Break
Jamal Murray scored 20+ points in each of the first three games against the Clippers and had 30+ DraftKings points. He played over 40 minutes in each of the first two games of the series but only played 36 in Game 3 since it turned into a blowout. Murray has shown a high ceiling when the Nuggets need him to step up, and they’ll call on him for a big game Saturday to try to level the series in Los Angeles.
The Warriors didn’t have Brandin Podziemski due to illness for much of Game 2, and he only managed to play 14 scoreless minutes in the loss. He’s not on the injury report on Saturday, but Jimmy Butler (pelvic contusion) is questionable. Pod Racer could take on more workload if Butler is out.
Kennard has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards, but if you need other cheap options, Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace both have a good Projected Plus/Minus as well on the other side of that Game 4 matchup.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
While he’s easy to overlook in the mix of the Thunder’s overall greatness, Jalen Williams is one of the few players on the board who has exceeded salary-based expectations in every postseason game so far. He has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at the position in the FantasyLabs projections behind only Butler, who is uncertain to play.
Williams has averaged 43.6 DraftKings points per game in the Thunder’s three wins. He has at least 20 points, five assists, and five rebounds in each of the three games and also chips in steals and blocks. He had a series-high 47 DraftKings points while helping the Thunder rally to a Game 3 win.
With SGA typically carrying the load and so many deep options in the rotation, Williams doesn’t have quite as high a ceiling as other studs, but he consistently contributes excellent numbers and should continue to thrive as OKC’s secondary scoring option.
Value
In both sets of projections, Moses Moody has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of small forwards with salaries under $5,000. In the FantasyLabs projections, he has the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward and also ranks in the top 10 in Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard.
Moody had a strong Game 2 while filling in for Podziemski, finishing with 12 points and 21 DraftKings points in 24 minutes. He also played 28 minutes in Game 1 and chipped in seven points.
Moody has started every Warriors game since the All-Star break, although his usage has adjusted after Jimmy Butler arrived. Moody can hit multiple three-pointers if given enough looks like he got in Game 2, so he’s a great bargain wing option if Butler, Podziemski, or both are less than 100% on Saturday night.
Fast Break
If Butler does play, he brings an extremely high ceiling that he showed off in Game 1 with a “Playoff Jimmy” style 52.75 DraftKings points against the Rockets. He was hurt in Game 2 and managed just 5.5 DraftKings points in eight minutes. He’ll be a high-risk, high-reward option even if he’s cleared to play Saturday night.
The Nuggets have gone away from Michael Porter Jr. in two of the three games of this series, but he went off for 15 points, 15 rebounds, and 38.25 DraftKings points in his one big game in Game 2. Like Butler, he’s listed as questionable and could have a huge impact if he’s able to play through the issue. If he’s in, he brings a high ceiling for GPP lineups, but he remains a boom-or-bust mid-range play. Norman Powell is a more consistent play even though he doesn’t have quite as high a ceiling.
An alternative bargain option to Moody is Haywood Highsmith of the Heat, who has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last seven games including each of the first two games in this series. He had 19.5 DraftKings points in Game 1 and 23 DraftKings points in Game 2.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Bam Adebayo has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at power forward for Saturday. Like Herro, he has to carry a huge part of the Heat’s offensive production. His massive workload gives him both a high floor and a high ceiling in this matchup against the Cavs.
In Game 1, he had 24 points, nine rebounds, and 45.75 DraftKings points in 39 minutes, and he was even more well-rounded in Game 2, which made him a strong fantasy play even though his scoring dipped. He had just 11 points but added 14 rebounds and nine assists to earn 45 DraftKings points while falling one assist short of a triple-double.
Bam’s versatility and upside make him the best power forward stud on the slate, even with Jaren Jackson Jr. getting a bump in usage without Morant.
Value
Jackson does have the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in both sets of projections. He brings an extremely high ceiling, but he has sometimes struggled to mesh with the replacement guards with Morant is out.
On the season, JJJ averaged 38.7 DraftKings points per game without Morant, which is a slight improvement on his overall average of 37.5 DraftKings points per game. The extra available work definitely raises his ceiling, but it doesn’t necessarily lock him in as a must-play option.
Like most of the Grizzlies, he struggled in Game 1, but he bounced back with 26 points and 22 points in Game 2 and Game 3, totaling 34.7 and 36.75 DraftKings points. If you can’t afford to get to Bam, Jackson is a very solid alternative since the Grizz will need him to come up huge to keep their season alive.
Fast Break
The Clippers have built their 2-1 lead over the Nuggets behind back-to-back big games from proven playoff performer Kawhi Leonard, who had a massive 57.75 DraftKings points in Game 2 and followed that up with 42.75 DraftKings points in Game 3. His projections are slightly lower than Bam’s, but he also brings an extremely high ceiling.
In the ShotQuality projections, Santi Aldama has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward behind only JJJ and Bam. Aldama scored 10 points in Game 2 on his way to 16.25 DraftKings points and was even better with 25.5 DraftKings points in 31 minutes in Game 3.
After missing six weeks with a fractured hand and playing just one minute in Game 1, Nikola Jovic played 25 minutes in Game 2, including crunch time minutes. He finished with 11 points, eight rebounds, and 23.5 DraftKings points, and if he gets similar minutes again on Saturday, he has an amazing ceiling for his salary of just $3,500.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Nikola Jokic always brings an immensely high ceiling since he can put up incredible stats in any matchup. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections on the entire slate and is also a good value since he lives up to his lofty salary most of the time.
Jokic finished the regular season with averages of 29.6 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 10.2 assists per game after posting 34 triple-doubles in 70 games. He had four triple-doubles in five games before taking it easy in the regular season finale.
In Game 1, he fell just one rebound short of a triple-double and posted 67.25 DraftKings points. He finished with a triple-double in Game 2 and Game 3, posting 65 and 65.25 DraftKings points. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the three games in this series and continues to be the focal point of the Nuggets offense.
If the last game had stayed closer, he could have had an even bigger game since he only played 36 minutes. He’ll need some support from his teammates to help him even up the series at 2-2, but he always has the potential to go off and dominate with a monster stat line that makes fading him impossible.
Value
Zach Edey has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center in the FantasyLabs projections and the fourth-highest in the ShotQuality projections. He is affordable at just over $5,000 and has been able to turn in over 20 DraftKings points in each of the last two games while playing 26 and 29 minutes.
Since the Grizzlies made their coaching change, Edey’s playing time has gone up under interim coach Tuomas Iisalo. He has a tough matchup against the stout interior of the Thunder, but the rookie has proven he can be a low-cost contributor at center if you opt to spend up on other stars and go cheaper in the middle.
Fast Break
Going against Jokic is no easy task, but Ivica Zubac has the third-highest ceiling projection and the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center in the FantasyLabs projections. He has outplayed the centers in other matchups by producing back-to-back double-doubles in the first two games of the series, coming up just one rebound short in Game 3. He earned 42.75, 39.5, and 32.75 DraftKings points in the three games in the series so far, and he remains a strong mid-range option on Saturday.
Nikola Jovic of the Heat (discussed above) is the best bargain option at center, while Jabari Smith Jr. and Kel’el Ware are other cheap options getting enough playing time to be worth a look if you can’t afford Edey or one of the stud plays.
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Pictured: James Harden
Photo Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
