The NBA had one of the wildest weekends in its history, and we still have a few days before Thursday’s Trade Deadline. On Monday, we start the work week with eight games on DraftKings’ main slate, which tips off at 7:00 p.m. ET. Of the 16 teams in action, the Bucks, Grizzlies, and Pistons are the only three playing for a second day in a row, while the Rockets, Pacers, Knicks, and Trail Blazers are starting back-to-back sets of games, which they’ll complete on Tuesday. The injury reports for those teams will be especially important to keep a close eye on, and several other teams have important players questionable as well. Be sure to update the projections and modify your roster as news breaks throughout the day.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
The Kings are trading De’Aaron Fox to the Spurs, which will open up more playing time and usage for the rest of the roster, especially with players likely unavailable on Monday due to the move. Malik Monk is one of the biggest beneficiaries in the backcourt and should carry a heavy load in Monday’s road matchup in Minnesota.
Monk and the Kings have played at the third-fastest pace in the NBA over the last seven games, and their up-tempo style has helped Monk regularly out-produce his salary-based expectations. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in 11 of his last 13 games, averaging 43.3 DraftKings points per contest and producing at the rate of 1.23 DraftKings points per minute.
With Fox off the floor during the last 13 games, Monk’s usage jumps over 3.5 percentage points to a team-high 29.5%, and his production rate increases slightly to 1.24 DraftKings points per minute. He’ll be running the show in Sacramento for the rest of the season, and he brings a high ceiling and floor on Monday’s slate from his salary of just over $7,000.
Value
One of the exciting new features this season on FantasyLabs is our partnership with ShotQuality. In both the FantasyLabs and ShotQuality projections, Jose Alvarado has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards. He’ll be stepping up for the Pelicans after the team lost Dejounte Murray (Achilles) for the season.
Alvarado had 20 points, and 37.75 DraftKings points in 34 minutes on Friday in the game that Murray went down. He also played 30+ minutes against the Hornets last week when Murray was out, although he only produced 16.75 DraftKings points. The only other games this season in which he played 30+ minutes came back in early November when he had double-digit points and over 35 DraftKings points in four of five games while filling in for injuries in the backcourt.
Whether he moves into the starting lineup or plays big minutes off the bench, Alvarado brings a very high ceiling as both a creator and a defensive hustler for the Pelicans. He has produced 1.0 DraftKings points per minute in his 26 games this season, but that number has increased to 1.09 DraftKings points per minute with Murray off the floor since January 1. With more minutes and usage, Alvarado has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players at all positions in the FantasyLabs projections.
Fast Break
With Jalen Williams (wrist) questionable, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander could have to carry the workload again on Monday. The pay-up option has the highest median, ceiling and floor projections at the position in both sets of projections and had 52.5 DraftKings points in 30 minutes with Williams out last Saturday night against the Kings. SGA’s already-high usage rate of 34.8% climbs to 40.2% with Williams off the floor.
Russell Westbrook (hamstring) will miss a second straight game, so Jamal Murray has very high projections against the banged-up Pelicans. Murray has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards and the third-highest of all shooting guards in the FantasyLabs projections. He has scored 20+ points in four of his last five games and had over 50 DraftKings points in two straight games last week, highlighted by a double-double against the Sixers with 31 points, 11 assists and 60 DraftKings points.
The Hornets won’t have LaMelo Ball (ankle) on Monday in a very favorable spot against the Wizards. Vasilije Micic ($5,000; ankle) has been starting in his absence and will be a good value play if he can play through his questionable tag. If he’s out as well, K.J. Simpson ($4,400) will be an elite value play after posting over 16 DraftKings points in four straight and finishing with 26.5 DraftKings points in 27 minutes on Saturday. Simpson will be a good play with Micic and almost a “must-play” without him.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The Grizzlies didn’t have Ja Morant (shoulder) for their last two games, and if he misses Monday’s matchup with the Spurs, Desmond Bane will continue to carry more work in the offense. The Grizzlies-Spurs matchup has the highest point total on the slate, and Bane has shown his upside in this specific matchup without Morant.
The Grizzlies beat the Spurs twice in January in San Antonio, and Morant missed one of those two games. Bane went off for 22 points, 14 assists, six rebounds, and 57.5 DraftKings points in 33 minutes while leading the Grizz to a 140-112 victory.
In the 16 games he has played this season without Morant, Bane has produced 1.30 DraftKings points per minute and 40.7 DraftKings points per game. In this matchup, he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard in both the ShotQuality and FantasyLabs projections and the highest median and floor projections at the position in both sets of projections as well.
Value
According to multiple reports, the Spurs will be able to acquire Fox without giving up first-round pick Stephon Castle. Castle has been excellent lately and will be a key part of the team’s core going forward.
He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard and the second-highest at point guard in the ShotQuality projections. Victor Wembanyama (illness) is questionable and not included in the projections, and if he misses a second straight game, Castle could carry even more offensive responsibilities.
Castle has exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of his last 12 games and has over 28 DraftKings points in four straight contests. He has produced in a variety of ways, with both high-scoring games and games where he scored fewer points but chipped in more other production instead. He has a high ceiling, both short and long-term, and he’s a fun option to build around at just over $5,000.
Fast Break
Without Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy and CJ McCollum will have to carry the offensive workload for the Pelicans, although having Zion Williamson should help too. All three of those stars are high-risk, high-reward plays against the Nuggets, who have been giving up plenty of points lately. Murray’s absence makes the offense murky, but there is definitely still potential for there to be good fantasy production from those three scorers.
Devin Vassell has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards in the ShotQuality projections, and he will have a very high ceiling if Wemby misses another game. On Saturday, he took 22 shots without Wemby but struggled to just 18 points. That kind of workload gives him plenty of upside to be a good consideration against the Grizzlies, who he had 36.25 and 31 DraftKings points against last month.
The FantasyLabs projections give Keon Ellis the highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard since he will likely step into more usage on Monday night with Fox on the move and Zach LaVine unlikely to make his Kings debut. Ellis has been boom-or-bust this season but usually finds ways to chip in at least solid returns on his minimal $3,500 salary.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
If the Kings are without the outgoing Fox and the incoming LaVine, DeMar DeRozan will carry a much bigger workload for the team in Minnesota. DeRozan has the third-highest median and floor projections at small forward in both the FantasyLabs and ShotQuality projections, and he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in the FantasyLabs projections as well.
DeRozan has been held under 20 points and under 30 DraftKings points in four straight games, but he has flashed a high ceiling when asked to do more. He had 32 points and 50.25 DraftKings points in the last game in which he took at least 20 shots, which was January 22 against the Warriors.
In the three games that DeRozan played without Fox this season, he averaged 34.1 DraftKings points per game, and he has produced 1.04 DraftKings points with Fox off the floor this season, while his usage rate climbs over four percentage points to a team-high 29.0%. If he gets that kind of usage against the Timberwolves, he should be able to return excellent value.
Value
Michael Porter Jr. edges out DeRozan for the highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward in the ShotQuality projections while finishing just behind him in the FantasyLabs projections. Porter is a little cheaper, and he should be lined up for more work, with Westbrook missing a second game in a row.
Porter’s usage rate increases from 20.4% to 21.7% with Westbrook off the floor, and he has produced 0.98 DraftKings points per minute in that scenario this season. On Saturday without Russ, Porter played 41 minutes against the Hornets and racked up 15 points, 10 boards and 35 DraftKings points. He has 27+ DraftKings points in seven of his last nine games after that performance and continues to carry plenty of work for Denver.
MPJ gets a great matchup against the Pelicans, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to his position so far this season. His salary under $6,000 leaves plenty of space for other stars, but he brings both a high ceiling and high floor based on his consistently high workload.
Fast Break
Josh Hart is once again questionable with a knee injury, but if he plays and gets his normal work like he has been, he’ll be a solid target once again. He posted a nice triple-double with 66.75 DraftKings points on Saturday against the Lakers despite the questionable tag and has popped for two games over 65 DraftKings points in his last four contests. The Knicks are starting a back-to-back, so keep a close eye on their injury report. If he plays, Hart could get even more work if O.G. Anunoby (foot, questionable) is unable to go.
Under $5,000, Nick Smith Jr. has upside for the Hornets, especially if Micic is out and Simpson steps in as point guard. On Saturday, Smith had 19 points and 27.25 DraftKings points, which was a nice bounceback after a few down games. He has been inconsistent but does bring a nice ceiling since Charlotte will be looking for any offensive spark they can get.
With Jalen Johnson (shoulder) out for the season and Bogdan Bogdanovic (personal) away from the team, the Hawks have given a big role to rookie Zaccharie Risacher since he returned from injury. The No. 1 overall pick has looked strong in his three games back in the lineup, exceeding salary-based expectations in each of those three games and averaging 31.75 DraftKings points. His minutes have increased from 20 to 25 to 29 in those three games as well, so he should be ready for a full workload on Monday.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Despite playing through a knee issue, Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to post incredible numbers. He has over 60 DraftKings points in four straight contests and over 55 DraftKings points in seven of his last eight. Even though he’s the most expensive power forward option, his recent production shows he’s worth considering as a pay-up play.
On Sunday night, he had 30 points, 11 rebounds, seven assists, and 60.75 DraftKings points against the Grizzlies. He did play 37 minutes, but as long as he’s ready to roll for the second night of the team’s back-to-back, he should be in a good position to produce.
He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all power forwards in both sets of projections.
Value
If you can’t spend all the way up on Giannis but still want good upside, Pascal Siakam has been heating up for the Pacers and has a top-five Projected Plus/Minus at power forward in the FantasyLabs projections. He gets a great matchup against the Jazz on Monday and will look to keep his impressive run going.
Siakam has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight straight contests, averaging 39.4 DraftKings points over his last 10 games. He had over 50 DraftKings points in back-to-back wins over the Spurs and Pistons last week and capped the week with a strong performance on Saturday, producing 41.75 DraftKings against the Hawks.
The Pacers are 8-2 over their last 10 games and are up to No. 4 in the Eastern Conference just ahead of Giannis and the Bucks. Spicy P is fueling their recent surge, and he should stay aggressive and productive in Monday’s road game against the Jazz.
Fast Break
If Morant is sidelined again on Monday, Jaren Jackson Jr. ($8,300) would likely get more work against the Spurs. He leads the team in usage in games without Morant and posted an impressive 37 points and 49.75 DraftKings points on Sunday in the team’s win over the Bucks. He always brings a high ceiling when Morant is out, and if Wemby is out for the Spurs, Jackson will have an even more favorable matchup against San Antonio.
The FantasyLabs projections give Kings’ forward Keegan Murray the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards. Due to the Kings’ transition, he could get more work on Monday against the Timberwolves. He has reached double-digit points in five of his last six games and has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of those five contests.
The Spurs have shuffled their rotation at forward multiple times this season, resulting in inconsistent playing time for Keldon Johnson ($4,300). When he has gotten a chance, though, the 25-year-old forward has put together strong numbers. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards under $4,500 in the ShotQuality projections and the second-highest in that price range in the FantasyLabs projections. Johnson had 34 DraftKings points last Friday against the Bucks and followed that with 27.25 DraftKings points against the Heat. Especially if Wemby is out, he’ll be a solid bargain forward again on Monday.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
As is usually the case whenever the Nuggets are on the schedule, Nikola Jokic has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections on the entire slate. Even though his salary is all the way up to $12,300, he still is actually a good value since he has a top-three Projected Plus/Minus at the position in both sets of projections.
While his salary is very high, his production lately has been even higher. On Saturday, he went off for 83.25 DraftKings points against the Hornets with a triple-double of 28 points, 17 assists, and 13 rebounds. He has 60+ DraftKings points in seven of his last nine games and has produced an incredible 66.7 DraftKings points per game and 1.96 DraftKings points per minute.
If you can find the salary to spend up on any superstar, Jokic at home against the Pelicans should be in a smash spot to continue to deliver elite production.
Value
With Alexandre Sarr (ankle) out, Jonas Valanciunas is a great value center to consider as the Wizards visit the Hornets. He has the top Projected Plus/Minus in both sets of projections and has shown he can still post good numbers when given an expanded role.
Valanciunas has started three straight games in place of Sarr and posted a double-double of 13 points and 10 rebounds for 30.5 DraftKings points on Saturday against the Timberwolves.
The Hornets have been the second-best matchup for centers this season, and Valanciunas should play plenty of minutes against Mark Williams, who returned from his two-game absence with 50 DraftKings points on Saturday. Both centers are in great matchups with high ceilings, but Valanciunas is so much cheaper that he brings slightly better value.
Fast Break
Without LaMelo Ball, the Hornets will need to run their offense through Williams again on Monday, and the big man has been excellent since returning from almost a full year off due to injury. Williams has 40+ DraftKings points in six of his last eight games and looked sharp after two games off for injury maintenance. He isn’t a bargain now that his salary is up over $8,000, but he still brings enough upside to make him a good target.
The Timberwolves will be without Julius Randle (groin) for a second straight game, while Naz Reid (finger) and Anthony Edwards (illness) are both questionable. As a result, Rudy Gobert could get more work like he did on Saturday against the Wizards. In that game, Gobert had 16 points and 16 rebounds on his way to 50 DraftKings points in 37 minutes. His matchup against Domantas Sabonis will be a much tougher one, but with so much extra work available, he’s still a great midrange option to consider.
I don’t love any ultra-cheap play, so rather than focus on Richaun Holmes as Valanciunas’s backup, let’s finish with Jalen Duren, who has been tearing it up lately for the Pistons. Duren has seven double-doubles in his last eight games and over 40 DraftKings points in three of his last four, after finishing with 46.25 DraftKings points on Sunday against the Bulls. Given how many strong options there are at center, it’s not a good night to punt the position. It’s worth considering whether to play a center in your utility spot as well, and Duren, Gobert, Valanciunas and Onyeka Okongwu are all great midrange options.
