Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Wednesday marked the fourth consecutive playoff game where Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored over 30 points. During that stretch he is averaging 34 points and 56.7 DraftKings points per game with a 31.6% usage rate. In Wednesday’s 43-point blowout, Gilgeous-Alexander only played 30 minutes but still scored 34 points and added eight assists while shooting 11-for-13 from the free-throw line. He was the league’s leading scorer and has had no trouble filling it up during the playoffs, making him a fantastic stud option.
The Thunder are 5.5-point road favorites in Game 3, implied for a slate-high 119 points. They are the team to target on this slate and no better way to get exposure than through their superstar point guard, Gilgeous-Alexander. He is under $10,000 and has the highest projected usage rate on the slate at 33% tonight.
Value
Russell Westbrook has been a remarkable addition to the Nuggets bench this season, averaging 13.3 points, 6.1 assists, and 4.9 rebounds per game. The Nuggets feed off his energy and priced at only $5,100, Westbrook is a cheap way to get exposure to this game environment. Over the last four games, he is averaging over 30 DraftKings points per game, which makes him an incredible value play in all formats.
Playing at home has been a much better environment for Westbrook all season long. He is averaging 14.8 points per game at home compared to 11.8 on the road and his shooting numbers are substantially better, especially from the perimeter. Regardless of the outcome, Westbrook is going to get his numbers and be aggressive. His consistency in the playoffs with spike games provides a ton of value at his salary.
Fast Break
Tyrese Haliburton did not have the best Game 2 but came up in the clutch once again, hitting a game-winning 3-pointer to give the Pacers a 2-0 series lead. However, last game was the first time that Haliburton had a negative Plus/Minus in his last six playoff games. In the other five ceiling performances, Haliburton averaged a double-double with 20 points, 11.8 assists, and 50.1 DraftKings points per game. He is slightly cheaper and drawing a little less ownership than Gilgeous-Alexander, but still a great play.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Playing without Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and De’Andre Hunter allowed Donovan Mitchell to go into super aggressive mode. The Cavaliers ended up choking Game 2 away, but Mitchell erupted for 48 points, nine assists, five rebounds, four steals, and one block, accumulating 75.75 DraftKings points. He shot an absurd 15-for-30 from the field with a 50.1% usage rate. Expect that to come down with all three of those important players expected to be back tonight, but Mitchell is still a strong pay-up option.
The Pacers rank third in the playoffs in pace, making this a great matchup for Mitchell. The healthy Cavaliers are road favorites in basically a must-win game. Despite the team getting multiple players back, Mitchell is the player to target. He is an incredible contrarian option currently drawing only 5% ownership.
Value
Drawing a slate-high 67% projected ownership is Nuggets’ guard Jamal Murray. With dual guard eligibility, Murray is easy to fit into all lineup builds. He had one amazing game against the Clippers, scoring 43 points and over 70 DraftKings points, but other than that has had a pretty average playoff run thus far. However, his recent play has dropped his salary under $7,000, which is simply way too cheap.
Murray is projected to play a slate-high 42 minutes for the Nuggets. He has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate and is a lock in cash games and an elite tournament value. Murray is still the second option on the Nuggets and has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in three of his last five games. Drawing this much ownership on a small slate, it is nearly impossible to get away from his value tonight.
Fast Break
Another value play that is worth targeting is Pacers’ guard Andrew Nembhard. During this playoff run, Nembhard has been a key piece to the Pacers’ success. He has a positive Plus/Minus in six of his last seven games, while averaging 15.9 points, 6.1 assists, and 32.7 DraftKings points per game. Nembhard posted a near triple-double last game displaying his versatility with 13 points, 13 assists, and seven rebounds. Priced in the mid-range, Nembhard is one of my favorite plays, given his recent performances.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Jalen Williams is in a class of his own at the small forward position. No other player with small forward eligibility is within $2,000 of his salary and within 15 projected points. That is the main reason why he is drawing over 50% on this slate. Williams can provide fantasy points on both ends of the court, so even when his shot isn’t falling, he can still provide value. Game 1 against the Nuggets was a perfect example, with Williams shooting a putrid 5-for-20 from the field but still recording nearly 40 DraftKings points.
Not only does Williams have the highest projected ceiling at the small forward position, but he also has the highest projected Plus/Minus. He will likely play nearly 40 minutes with a 27% usage rate, making him a strong play tonight. Williams is basically the second option on the Thunder behind Gilgeous-Alexander.
Value
Similar to Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith has provided incredible value for the Pacers when needed the most. He has thrived in his last six playoff games. During that time, he is averaging 17.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 32.9 DraftKings points per game while shooting 57.6% from the field and 57.9% from distance. He has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his last six games and has shown no signs of slowing down.
Nesmith is an elite value play in all lineup builds with his shooting guard and small forward eligibility. He is drawing nearly 50% projected ownership due to his recent play and is a phenomenal way to get exposure to the Pacers tonight. Bennedict Mathurin has cut into his playing time a little bit, but Nesmith is playing too well to keep off the floor. Expect another great game from Nesmith against the Cavaliers.
Fast Break
Christian Braun was one of many Nuggets players who did not come to play in Game 2. In his 26 minutes he had three points, two rebounds, and one block, while shooting 1-for-6 from the field for only seven DraftKings points. That game was an anomaly given how well Braun has played recently. In four of his last six games, Braun has recorded at least 35 DraftKings points. Playing at home, it would be surprising if the Nuggets got boat-raced again tonight like last game. Braun is another strong value play in all formats.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
After recording a 20-point, 10-rebound double-double in Game 1, Evan Mobley was unable to play last game due to his ankle injury. Keep an eye on his status throughout the day, but it is expected that Mobley will be able to suit up tonight. The Cavaliers need him. They are down 2-0 with their backs against the wall now going to Indiana. Mobley played great in Game 1 and will excel in this matchup if he plays.
The Pacers have been one of the best matchups for opposing big men all season long. They ranked 28th in rebounding percentage at 48.3% and 27th in points allowed in the paint at 51.4 per game. It is not a surprise that Mobley had a double-double in Game 1. He has an amazing opportunity to duplicate that performance tonight. He is projected for less than 10% projected ownership, but expect that to rise.
Value
Aaron Gordon has been the heartbeat for the Nuggets’ playoff run with two game-winners already and a positive Plus/Minus in five of his last six games. He was one of several players who did not have a great Game 2. However, in his five ceiling performances before that, Gordon averaged 20 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 35.2 DraftKings points per game. He posted a 22-point, 14-rebound double-double in Game 1 with a game-winning 3-pointer to complete the Nuggets’ historic comeback. He has had a fantastic playoff run.
Gordon has been playing nearly 40 minutes a night in the playoffs and his power forward and center eligibility makes him a strong play in all formats. The Thunder have a smaller frontcourt so Gordon is able to use his size and strength to take advantage on the glass and in the paint. Another great outlook tonight.
Fast Break
Chet Holmgren is the Thunder’s starting power forward and is coming off a double-double of his own with 15 points and 11 rebounds in Game 2. Holmgren has been fairly consistent during the playoffs, with three double-doubles in his six games played and four of those six games finishing with a positive Plus/Minus. Holmgren’s activity on the defensive end has provided a ceiling that is worth getting exposure to. Not only is he able to stretch the floor offensively, but he already has 17 blocks during the playoffs this year.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
To no surprise, the stud to pay up for on this two-game slate is Nikola Jokic. He went nuclear in Game 1 with 42 points, 22 rebounds, and six assists for 83.5 DraftKings points. Jokic followed that up with a less than stellar Game 2, accumulating 17 points, eight rebounds, and six assists in the massive Nuggets loss. If the Nuggets are going to be competitive and, especially, win, Jokic is going to have to have another huge game. He may be $11,000, but Jokic is drawing 56% projected ownership with plenty of value available.
Jokic’s ceiling projection is 12 fantasy points more than Gilgeous-Alexander and he also has the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate. There is no denying that Jokic is the best player to target tonight. Do not get cute; just roster Jokic. He will obliterate the smaller Thunder frontcourt again in Game 3 tonight.
Value
After Jokic, the center position drops off like a rock. However, Myles Turner has been amazing in his last four games for the Pacers. During that stretch he is averaging 20 points, 8.3 rebounds, and over 40 DraftKings points per game, while shooting 54% from the field and 41.2% from behind the arc. Turner has also been a monster defensively with seven blocks and four steals in the first two games of this series.
The Cavaliers on paper have an incredible interior defensive unit, but Turner has been able to take advantage with his athleticism and stretching the floor. Priced at $6,300, Turner is an incredible value despite the Pacers having the lowest implied team total on the slate. He has to compete on the glass to limit the Cavaliers’ opportunities and he has done just that. Look for another great game from Turner.
Fast Break
Guarding Jokic is not an easy task, but that is why the Thunder went out to get Isaiah Hartenstein. He is having the best year of his career, averaging a career-high 11.2 points and 10.7 rebounds per game this season while shooting 58.1% from the field. Hartenstein will likely only play around 28 minutes a night, but he can provide value at his $6,000 price tag with his activity. In the two games already in this series, Hartenstein is averaging 13 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. He is another strong value play tonight.
