NBA Playoffs DFS Breakdown (Thursday, Aug. 20): Will the Bucks and Lakers Bounce Back in Game 2?

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Thursday features a four-game slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.

Point Guard

Stud

Damian Lillard continues to provide excellent fantasy value for the Blazers. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +10.07 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he’s coming off 47.5 FanDuel points in Game 1 vs. the Lakers.

Lillard has done this thanks to an unparalleled workload. He’s logged at least 39.1 minutes in each game in Orlando, and he’s eclipsed 41.1 minutes in each of his past three. He’s currently projected for 43.1 minutes in our NBA Models, which is absolutely insane. It’s hard for a high-priced player to fail given that much playing time: Players with a comparable salary have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.88 and a Consistency Rating of 63.6% when projected for at least 41 minutes (per the Trends tool).

Lillard remains an excellent value at $10,000 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 98%.

Value

Most of the best values at the position can be found on FanDuel, but Markelle Fultz stands out as an exception. He’s priced at just $4,500 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%.

Fultz has posted a Plus/Minus in each of his past four games, including a Plus/Minus of +9.16 in Game 1 vs. the Bucks. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.06 DraftKings points per minute in the bubble, and he’s expected to play around 30 minutes in Game 2. That makes him too cheap at $4,500.

Fast Break

The Heat made one of the most curious roster decisions in the playoffs when they decided to bench Kendrick Nunn. Nunn was a starter for most of the year and a finalist for the Rookie of the Year award, but he didn’t play a single minute in Game 1 vs. the Pacers. He wasn’t listed on the injury report, and Head Coach Erik Spoelstra gave no indication that this was simply just a one-time thing.

With that in mind, Goran Dragic becomes one of the strongest options at the position. He’s coming off 34 minutes in his last game after entering the starting lineup, and he’s averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute in the bubble. That is a lot of potential production for just $5,900 on DraftKings and $6,200 on FanDuel.

The Thunder lost Game 1 of their series vs. the Rockets, but Chris Paul was awesome from a fantasy perspective. He finished just one assist shy of a triple-double, and the most encouraging part was that he played 37.2 minutes. Paul was limited to around 30 minutes per game during the regular season, so he’s going to have much higher upside in the playoffs if he continues to see that kind of workload.

Shooting Guard

Stud

Russell Westbrook remains out for the Houston Rockets, so James Harden should be looking at another expanded workload today. He’s coming off 58.25 DraftKings points in his last contest, which feels like basically his floor. He posted a usage rate of just 37.9%, and Harden’s average usage rate has been closer to 45% with Westbrook off the court this season. The Rockets’ role players performed well in Game 1, but Harden might be asked to do a bit more scoring if that isn’t the case today.

Value

Dennis Schroder was dreadful in Game 1 vs. the Rockets, scoring just 10.0 FanDuel points. That said, there was actually a lot to like about Schroder in that contest. For starters, he played more than 31.5 minutes off the bench. Schroder has averaged just under 1.00 FanDuel points per minute this season, so that much playing time bodes well for his future success. He should also see some improvement on his shooting numbers and his peripheral stats from Game 1 moving forward, which makes him an awesome buy-low target.

Fast Break

Sometimes it’s easy to forget about Jimmy Butler. He’s clearly not the easiest player to get along with – which is why he’s on his fourth team in four years – but he’s someone you want on your team in the playoffs. He stuffed the stat sheet in Game 1 vs. the Pacers, finishing with 51.6 FanDuel points on 28 points, three rebounds, four assists, four steals, and two blocks. Overall, he’s scored at least 40.9 FanDuel points in four of his past five games, and the only exception was a game where he was limited to just 15 minutes.

If the Magic are going to shock the Bucks again in Game 2, they’re going to need another big performance from Terrence Ross. He was excellent Game 1, finishing with 28.5 DraftKings points over 28.5 minutes. That isn’t exactly fluky production from Ross – he’s averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute this season – and he should be locked in to a similar workload today.

Small Forward

Stud

Is it too early to call this a must-win game for the Lakers? Maybe, but they’d certainly like to avoid falling into a 2-0 hole vs. the Blazers.

LeBron James was absolutely phenomenal in Game 1 of this series, finishing with 23 points, 17 rebounds, and 16 assists. He played more than 41 minutes in that contest, and he should be looking at another big workload today. He should continue to crush in an elite matchup vs. the Blazers, who finished 27th in defensive efficiency during the regular season.

LeBron is also an excellent value today on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 88%.

Value

Danilo Gallinari is another member of the Thunder who figures to play more in the playoffs. He’s coming off 33 minutes in Game 1 vs. the Rockets, and he responded with 39.1 FanDuel points. He also owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.23 vs. the Rockets, so he has an excellent matchup as well.

Fast Break

The Pacers have one of the most important injury situations to monitor today. Victor Oladipo did not play in the second half of Game 1 after getting poked in the eye, and he’s currently listed as a game-time decision. He is tentatively expected to play after going through shootaround yesterday, but make sure to monitor his status using the Labs Insiders tool.

If he is unable to suit up, Justin Holiday would be an interesting punt play at $3,700 on FanDuel. He’s averaged 0.77 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he can take advantage of a few additional minutes.

Robert Covington stands out on DraftKings, where his $6,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%. He didn’t shoot the ball in Game 1 of this series, but he has the ability to contribute in every category across the board.

Power Forward

Stud

The Bucks are looking to bounce back today vs. the Magic, so expect to see a big performance from Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giannis was excellent in Game 1 despite the loss, finishing with 65.25 DraftKings points. He also played just under 34.5 minutes, and no one on the slate can match his average of 2.04 DraftKings points per minute during the season.

The Bucks lead the slate with an implied team total of 119.75, so there’s nothing to dislike about Giannis on today’s slate.

Value

Jeff Green has been a remarkable value for the Rockets in the bubble. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past nine games on DraftKings, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +10.22 over that time frame. He has been priced up a bit across the industry, but he still has plenty of upside since he’s playing around 30 minutes per game.

Fast Break

Giannis is listed as a SF on FanDuel, so you can target Anthony Davis if you want to pay up at PF. He scored 53.7 FanDuel points in Game 1 vs. the Blazers despite the fact that he shot just 8-24 from the field and 12-17 from the free throw line. He has plenty of room for improvement in both departments in Game 2, and he should continue to benefit from the absence of Zach Collins.

The Lakers are begging for someone other than LeBron and AD to step up, and Kyle Kuzma looks like one of the best potential options. He certainly has plenty of appeal from a fantasy perspective after averaging 0.98 FanDuel points per minute during the restart.

Center

Stud

Nikola Vucevic was absolutely phenomenal in his first postseason game vs. the Bucks. He recorded 55.8 FanDuel points over 36.5 minutes, resulting in a Plus/Minus of +20.46.

That said, he does look like a regression candidate on today’s slate. He shot 15-24 from the field and 5-8 from 3-point range, both of which are significantly higher than his season averages. Vucevic has also seen a price increase of +$400 on FanDuel, so fading him is perfectly acceptable.

Value

Steven Adams is coming off 33.4 FanDuel points in his last game despite being limited to just 27.6 minutes. He could see a bit more playing time today, and the Rockets are an elite matchup. They have been absolutely crushed on the boards since trading away Clint Capela, and Adams ranks 10th in total rebound rate this season.

Fast Break

Hassan Whiteside is an interesting value play at $4,500 on FanDuel. He saw a few additional minutes with Collins out of the lineup, and he’s averaged 1.41 FanDuel points per minute this season.

Bam Adebayo leads all centers with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $7,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 83%. Adebayo is coming off 46.0 DraftKings points in Game 1 vs. the Pacers, and he is a daily threat to pile up a triple-double.

Pictured above: LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers
Photo credit: Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images