The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday’s main slate differs by site. DraftKings features a seven-game main slate starting 1 p.m. ET while FanDuel features a five-game main slate starting at 4:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
The end of the regular season is typically tough to handicap. Each team has varying degrees of uncertainty in terms of motivation, and there can be a lot of lineup shuffling prior to lock.
That said, Damian Lillard is as close as you get to a certainty on today’s slate. Every game in Orlando has essentially been a playoff game for the Blazers, and Lillard has been playing that way. He’s scored at least 48.25 DraftKings points in five of six games, and he’s scored at least 60.0 DraftKings points in three of them. He’s definitely more expensive than usual at $10,000 on DraftKings and $9,800 on FanDuel, but he’s one of the safest options on the slate.
Value
The Kings have been eliminated from playoff contention, so they will give De’Aaron Fox the night off vs. the Pelicans. That means Cory Joseph will likely move into the starting lineup. He’s priced basically at the minimum at just $3,600 on FanDuel, and he’s averaged 0.65 FanDuel points per minute with Fox off the court this season. He’s also averaged 31.7 minutes in 19 games with Fox out of the lineup, which should be more than enough for him to pay off his current price tag.
Fast Break
The Rockets are giving James Harden the night off on the first leg of a back-to-back, which means Russell Westbrook should be looking at a huge workload. He’s increased his usage rate by +8.1% with Harden off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.64 DraftKings points per minute. That’s a massive increase from his season average of 1.39 DraftKings points per minute. The Spurs also represent a great matchup, ranking just 26th in the league in defensive efficiency.
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Houston Rockets guard Russell Westbrook (0).
The 76ers have the potential to be extremely shorthanded today. Joel Embiid and Josh Richardson have already been ruled out, while Al Horford and Tobias Harris are listed as questions. Ben Simmons remains out, so they could potentially be without their entire starting five from the early part of the year.
Shake Milton would be an interesting option if all five players are ultimately ruled out. He’s increased his usage rate by +8.5% with all five off the court, resulting in an average of 0.87 DraftKings points per minute.
Make sure to monitor the injury news for the 76ers and all the other teams on today’s slate using the Labs Insider tool.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Devin Booker is to the SG position what Lillard is to PG. He’s led the Suns to a 6-0 record in Orlando, which has them on the verge of qualifying for the play-in series. They might win to need their last two games to have a shot, but they will get to face the shorthanded 76ers today. That should be an excellent matchup for Booker: The Sixers have allowed 113.2 points per 100 possessions with both Simmons and Embiid off the court this season.
Like Lillard, Booker has been priced up a bit across the industry, but he’s rewarded fantasy owners with at least 39.25 DraftKings points in each game in Orlando.
Value
If the 76ers do end up being shorthanded, Alec Burks would become one of the best values of the day. He’s played 14 minutes with all five of the potentially unavailable 76ers off the court this season, but he’s posted a usage rate of +36.3% in that situation. That’s a lot of potential usage at just $4,300 on DraftKings and $4,200 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Bogdan Bogdanovic is another member of the Kings who should benefit from the absence of Fox. He’s increased his usage rate by +4.1% with Fox off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.98 DraftKings points per minute. Bogdanovic and the rest of the Kings are also in an excellent spot vs. the Pelicans, who have played at the seventh-fastest pace inside the bubble.
Sticking with the Pelicans, they have decided to rest Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Jrue Holiday for today’s contest. J.J. Redick will likely move into the starting lineup, and he’s averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute with all three players off the court. He’s displayed an excellent ceiling in Orlando even with the team at full strength – he’s coming off 42.5 DraftKings points in his last contest – so he has monster upside with the team shorthanded.
Small Forward
Stud
Luka Doncic has SF eligibility on DraftKings, and he’s been a fantasy monster this season. He’s averaged 1.65 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s upped that figure to 1.72 inside the bubble. He got the day off yesterday vs. the Jazz, so you’ll need to make sure he’s active today before locking him into your lineup.
The stakes aren’t as life or death for the Mavericks as they are for the Blazers, but they still have something to play for. They’re just one game behind the Jazz for the No. 6 spot in the Western Conference, and the difference between the No. 6 and No. 7 spots in significant. The No. 7 seed has to face the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs, while the No. 6 seed gets a much more palatable matchup vs. either the Nuggets or Rockets.
Value
The Wizards have been a disaster in Orlando, losing each of their first six games by an average of 11.67 points per game. That said, it doesn’t mean they can’t offer some fantasy value.
Troy Brown Jr. has been playing more minutes recently, and he’s responded with at least 30.25 DraftKings points in each of the past five games. Shabazz Napier is also questionable, and Brown could see a few additional minutes if he’s ruled out.
Fast Break
Cam Johnson continues to provide excellent fantasy production for the Suns. He’s scored at least 31.5 DraftKings points in three of his past five games, and he finished third on the team with 32 minutes in their last contest. He’s an elite value at $4,700 on FanDuel.
The Spurs are another team with playoff aspirations, so expect them to take today’s game vs. the Rockets very seriously. That said, they may have to do it without Derrick White. He’s been arguably the Spurs’ best player in Orlando, but he’s listed as questionable after leaving their last game early with a leg injury.
If he’s inactive, DeMar DeRozan could be asked to take on a larger offensive role than usual. He’s averaged just 32.9 minutes over his past six games, but that hasn’t stopped him from scoring at least 35.5 DraftKings points in four of them. He has excellent upside if he sees a few additional minutes today.
Credit: Mark Sobhani-NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Spurs SG DeMar DeRozan (10), Photo
Power Forward
Stud
Lillard has gotten the majority of the attention for the Blazers recently, but Jusuf Nurkic has been nearly as important. He was one of the Blazers’ best players in terms of Net Rating differential last season, so his return has been massive.
Nurkic has also been strong from a fantasy perspective. He’s scored at least 41.25 DraftKings points in five of his six games, and he’s scored at least 50.75 DraftKings points in three of them. Hassan Whiteside is expected to rejoin the rotation today, but he’s been a complete non-factor in Orlando. He’s yet to play more than 18 minutes in a game, and Nurkic’s three best fantasy games have actually come with Whiteside in the lineup.
Value
Today’s game between the Nets and Magic is going to be borderline unwatchable. That said, it could be one of the best games of the day from a fantasy perspective.
On the Nets side, they’ll be without Caris LeVert, Jarrett Allen, Joe Harris and Garrett Temple, which opens up a ton of minutes and usage for the rest of the lineup. Rodions Kurucs should step into the starting lineup, and he’s averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute with all of the currently injured Nets off the court this season.
Fast Break
Rudy Gay has transitioned to more of a PF with Aldridge out of the lineup in Orlando, and he has been thriving in that role. He’s scored at least 25.25 DraftKings points in all six games, and he’s scored at least 33.75 DraftKings points in each of his past three. He remains pretty affordable at $5,800 in a great matchup vs. the Rockets, who have been absolutely eviscerated on the glass since trading away Clint Capela.
Nikola Melli could be looking at an expanded workload for the shorthanded Grizzlies, and he’s been a pretty nice fantasy asset when given an opportunity this season. He’s currently projected for 26.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and Melli has averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.16 on FanDuel when projected for at least 24.5 minutes this season (per the Trends tool).
Center
Stud
Nikola Vucevic is basically the only member of the Magic who is expected to play today. Terrence Ross has already been ruled out, and Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier and Michael Carter-Williams are listed as doubtful. Vucevic hasn’t played a ton of minutes with those guys off the court this season, but I think it’s pretty safe to assume he’ll see an increased usage rate.
Of course, there’s no guarantee that the Magic actually stick with Vucevic for the entire game. It’s kind of odd that he’s playing to begin with considering all the other inactives, and the Magic have nothing to gain in this contest.
Value
Sticking with that game, Donta Hall could be someone worth considering on the Brooklyn side. He’s priced near the minimum at just $3,200 on DraftKings, and he played 21 minutes in the only other game that Allen has missed inside the bubble.
Fast Break
The Bucks are playing the Wizards on the second leg of a back-to-back today, which makes them a definite rest candidate. If Brook Lopez is out of the lineup, Robin Lopez would become a very interesting target at a minimal salary across the industry. The Wizards have been an elite matchup for big men this season, ranking 29th in defensive efficiency and dead last in team rebound rate.
Deandre Ayton didn’t start for the Suns in their last game after missing the COVID-19 test, but he ended up coming off the bench. He should be back in the starting lineup today vs. the 76ers, and he will have a significant advantage on the interior with Embiid and possibly Horford out of the lineup.
