The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a two-game slate starting at 8 p.m. ET.
This breakdown is for the full two-game slate, but if you’re interested in single-game formats, be sure to check out the following pieces by Matt LaMarca:
- 5 Tips to Dominate the DraftKings NBA Showdown Format
- How Does the Single-Game NBA Format on FanDuel Differ From DraftKings?
Point Guard
Stephen Curry’s salary is down to $9,000 on FanDuel and $7,900 on DraftKings. Over the past three seasons, he’s averaging a +2.48 Plus/Minus and 70% Consistency Rating across 30 instances in which he was priced between $8,900 and $9,100 on FanDuel, as well as +8.38 and 75% figures, respectively, when he’s been under $8,500 on DraftKings, according to our NBA Trends tool.
Our NBA Player Models have Curry projected for a top-three Plus/Minus on both sites.
Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Milwauke Bucks guard Eric Bledsoe (6)
Eric Bledsoe is practically being given away for free on DraftKings at $5,800. He’s been a reliable option over the past month (74% Consistency Rating), so I’d be surprised if we don’t see an aggressive bounce back from him tonight after he turned in a dismal six points on five shots in 25 minutes in Game 1.
Also note that Shaun Livingston pops as the preferred punt option on FanDuel when using our new “punt last spot” feature.
Shooting Guard
No player on this slate has a higher Projected Plus/Minus on either site than James Harden. You have to like the added upside of Harden potentially getting more bullshit foul calls than usual after referees admitted to 12 free throws worth of missed calls on him in Game 1.
Khris Middleton’s DraftKings Plus/Minuses in his last three games against Boston: +10.4, +10.65, +12.03. He’s a top-three value at both wing spots on DraftKings and at shooting guard on FanDuel.
Small Forward
Kevin Durant is $9,100 on DraftKings but $11,400 on FanDuel, earning him a 99% Bargain Rating and a top-three Projected Plus/Minus on the former. His FanDuel price makes him a dicier option; if he exceeds his salary expectation tonight, it will mark the first time he’s done so against Houston on FanDuel this season.
Marcus Morris’ $4,200 price tag on DraftKings gives him a 97% Bargain Rating and the top Projected Plus/Minus of any player priced below $6,600 on the site. He’s exceeded value in four of five postseason games and played more than 30 minutes in each of the past two.
Power Forward
Nikola Mirotic has the top Projected Plus/Minus among players priced below $4,000 on both sites. He’s seen an increase in minutes in the past two postseason games and is a useful punt play at whichever position he’s eligible on each site (PF/C on DraftKings and SF on FanDuel).
P.J. Tucker finally came back to Earth with a 0-for-4 performance against the Warriors in Game 1, but he’s hit value on both sites in eight of his past 10 games. Just as he does for the Rockets, Tucker functions as a premier glue guy in DFS lineups thanks to his ability to play big minutes and contribute in multiple categories.
Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Houston Rockets forward P.J. Tucker (17)
Center
Al Horford has the top Projected Plus/Minus among centers on FanDuel. DraftKings’ multi-position eligibility means you don’t need to pay up at the position there, but that also lowers Horford’s ownership projection to the point where he has the top Leverage Score on the slate.
Another reason Horford is expected to carry relatively low ownership on DraftKings is that Draymond Green is center-eligible and has an edge of more than five points in Projected Plus/Minus at $200 less. Draymond posted another one of his patented gentleman’s triple-doubles in Game 1 with a 14/9/9 line. We should expect more of the same on his home floor: Dating back to the 2014-15 season, he’s averaging a +3.1 Plus/Minus and 60% Consistency Rating at home compared to +1.6 and 56%, respectively, on the road (per our Trends tool).
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) and Golden State Warriors guard Klay Thompson (11)
Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
