The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features an 11-game slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
The Nets’ fans will likely have to wait a full year to see Kevin Durant make his debut in Brooklyn, but they can enjoy Kyrie Irving in the meantime. He’s coming off a career-best 44.4 DraftKings points per game in his final season in Boston, and it’s very possible he could improve upon that number this season. He posted a usage rate of 33.9% during the preseason, which was the sixth-highest mark in the league. Irving finished outside the top 15 in usage last year, so that would represent a pretty large increase.
He takes the floor in an excellent spot today vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves. They finished 22nd in defensive efficiency last season, and the Nets’ implied team total of 115.25 ranks fourth on the slate. Opposing PG Jeff Teague also finished just 48th out of 80 qualifiers in Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM) at the PG position.
Nicole Sweet-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Brooklyn Nets guard Kyrie Irving (11).
Kyrie is one of the better values at the position on FanDuel, where his $9,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.49 on FanDuel with a comparable salary and implied team total (per the Trends tool).
Value
Ish Smith will draw the start at PG for the Washington Wizards, which makes him an appealing value at just $4,700. He’s currently projected for 31 minutes in our NBA Models, and Smith averaged 0.84 FanDuel points per minute last season. He also has an excellent matchup vs. the Mavericks, who surrendered the fourth-highest average Plus/Minus on FanDuel to PGs projected for at least 20 minutes last season.
Fast Break
The highest total of the day belongs to the Sacramento Kings and Phoenix Suns, so that seems like a contest you’ll want some exposure to. De’Aaron Fox averaged a stout 1.17 DraftKings points per minute last season, and his $7,700 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Jeff Teague was a solid contributor when on the court last season, averaging 1.02 DraftKings points per minute, but injuries and competition at the position ultimately limited him to just 30.1 minutes per game. That said, Derrick Rose and Tyus Jones are now gone, so Teague has the potential to improve upon that mark this season. He’s a solid value at just $5,600 on DraftKings.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The SG position is deeper than usual today, with eight options priced at $7,000 or more on FanDuel. Among those options, Buddy Hield stands out as the best value given his Bargain Rating of 91%.
Hield put together the best season if his young career in 2018-19, shooting 42.7% from 3-point range while averaging 31.95 FanDuel points per game. He benefits from the same elite matchup as Fox vs. the Phoenix Suns, who ranked just 29th in defensive efficiency last season.
Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sacramento Kings guard Buddy Hield (24).
If you’re paying up at the position on DraftKings, Bradley Beal stands out at $8,800. Beal was a workhorse for the Wizards last season after the injury to John Wall. He led the league with an average of 36.9 minutes per game, and he averaged 37.7 minutes in 50 games without Wall. Unsurprisingly, Beal was very productive in those contests, averaging 46.49 DraftKings points and a +3.3 Plus/Minus.
Beal has an above-average matchup today vs. the Dallas Mavericks, who surrendered an average Plus/Minus of +2.39 to opposing SGs last season.
Value
Tyler Herro and Dwayne Bacon are expected to be the chalk value options at SG on FanDuel. Both guys are priced at just $3,600, and both players are expected to play significant roles for their respective teams this season. Bacon is currently projected for more minutes, but he averaged just 0.69 FanDuel points per minute last season. Herro has a chance to be the better per-minute producer this year, but his matchup vs. the Grizzlies is pretty unappealing.
Fast Break
Luka Doncic is coming off one of the best rookie seasons ever for a teenager. What does he have in store for an encore? Well, he posted a usage rate of 34.2% during the preseason and shot 41.9% from 3-point range on 7.8 attempts per game. If he can carry those marks into the regular season, he has a chance to move into the upper echelon of fantasy superstars.
Jeremy Lamb has always been an elite contributor on a per-minute basis, but he struggled to find consistent minutes as a member of the Hornets. Perhaps that will change in his first year with the Pacers. Lamb has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.35 and a Consistency Rating of 74.4% when he sees at least 28 minutes of playing time, and he’s currently projected for more than 31 minutes on today’s slate.
Small Forward
Stud
Danilo Gallinari was shipped to Oklahoma City as part of the Paul George trade, and he quietly put together one of the best years of his career last season. He averaged a career-best 33.78 DraftKings points per game while shooting 46.3% from the field and 43.3% from 3-point range. His usage rate of 23.8% was also the highest of his career.
He has the potential to improve upon those numbers further in his first year with the Thunder. They don’t have many high-usage players on their roster, so Gallo should see a healthy number of shots and playing time. He has the highest ceiling projection at the position on FanDuel but is projected for just 5-8% ownership.
Value
The Wizards look like one of the best sources of value on today’s slate. They had a lot of turnover in their lineup, and some of their starters are underpriced given their new roles.
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Washington Wizards guard Isaac Bonga (17).
Isaac Bonga stands out as one of the best value options. He’s priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel and averaged a strong 0.87 FanDuel points per minute over the past year. He’s currently projected for 26.5 minutes, and players with comparable salaries, minute projections, and per-minute averages have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.32 on FanDuel.
Bonga is currently projected for 31-35% ownership — which could make him the highest-owned player on the slate — but he’s very tough to fade in cash games.
Fast Break
Kelly Oubre was dominant as a member of the Suns, averaging a Plus/Minus of +4.99 on FanDuel. His salary got as high as $7,700 during that time frame, yet he’s been priced down to just $5,500 for today’s matchup vs. the Kings.
The Spurs have an elite matchup vs. the Knicks, who figure to be one of the worst defensive teams in the league this season. San Antonio is currently implied for 112.5 points, which ranks sixth on the slate. The Spurs can be a tough team to handicap in DFS, but DeMar DeRozan and Rudy Gay both stand out as excellent values on DraftKings given their Bargain Ratings of 93%.
Power Forward
Stud
The original unicorn Kristaps Porzingis is set to make his return to the court after missing all of last season with a knee injury. The Mavericks will likely tread lightly with him this season, but he shouldn’t need a ton of playing time to take advantage of his matchup vs. the Wizards.
Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dallas Mavericks forward Kristaps Porzingis (6).
They were absolutely dreadful against opposing big men last season, which makes sense considering they ranked just 29th in team rebound rate. Porzingis is too cheap at $7,700 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 98%.
Value
P.J. Washington is an excellent value at the other end of the pricing spectrum. He’s expected to draw the start for the Hornets, and his $3,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. Washington was impressive during the preseason, averaging 12.2 points and 5.0 rebounds over 25.4 minutes per game. He also showed excellent touch from behind the 3-point line, shooting 50% on 3.2 attempts per game.
Fast Break
Marvin Bagley has been confirmed as a starter for the Kings on opening night, which gives him massive upside vs. the Suns. He was dominant on a per-minute basis last season, averaging 1.14 DraftKings points per minute, but he was limited to an average of just 25.3 minutes per game. The Suns ranked dead last in rebound rate last year, so Bagley can do some serious damage with increased minutes in this contest. He’s underpriced at $7,200 on DraftKings.
Markieff Morris will draw the start for the injured Blake Griffin, which makes him one of the best values of the day at just $3,600 on DraftKings. Kieff averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute last season, so he doesn’t need much playing time to pay off his current salary.
Center
Studs
There are lots of values available on today’s slate, so you should strongly consider paying up at center. Most of the top options on today’s slate reside at the center position: Five of the top six players in terms of ceiling projections on DraftKings are listed at center.
Karl-Anthony Towns is the most expensive option at the position, and he’s coming off a dominant season in 2018-19. He averaged a career-best 50.85 DraftKings points per game despite seeing a slight reduction in playing time. He has a juicy matchup today vs. the Brooklyn Nets, who were absolutely demolished by opposing centers last season. They surrendered an average Plus/Minus of +6.07 on DraftKings to centers projected for at least 20 minutes of playing time.
The only concern with Towns is his weird splits to start his career. For some reason, he does not seem to play as well at the beginning of the season:
- October: 43.24 DraftKings points per game | +1.8 Plus/Minus
- November: 40.07 DraftKings points per game | -0.3 Plus/Minus
- December: 45.3 DraftKings points per game | +4.5 Plus/Minus
- January: 46.5 DraftKings points per game | +2.9 Plus/Minus
- February: 50.45 DraftKings points per game | +4.7 Plus/Minus
- March: 49.39 DraftKings points per game | +2.9 Plus/Minus
Maybe he needs some time to play his way back into shape, or maybe this is just a small sample size issue. I’m still definitely interested in him in this spot, but it’s something to think about.
Joel Embiid also deserves some attention. His matchup vs. the Celtics doesn’t seem great on paper, but this isn’t the same Celtics’ frontcourt.
Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Joel Embiid
They lost both Al Horford and Aron Baynes in the offseason, and no one on their roster should present Embiid with much of a challenge. His average of 1.62 DraftKings points per minute last season is the top mark on today’s slate.
Value
Bobby Portis is priced at a discount on FanDuel, where his $5,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. Portis should see a few additional minutes today with Mitchell Robinson ruled out and Taj Gibson dealing with a calf injury. Portis has always been a strong contributor when given the opportunity to play, and he could see upwards of 30 minutes in his Knicks’ debut.
Fast Break
Hassan Whiteside may be the biggest enigma in basketball. He’s blessed with so much raw talent, but he still wound up in Erik Spoelstra’s dog house on what seemed like a monthly basis. He should get a fresh start in Portland, and he’s underpriced if he can see consistent minutes. His average of 1.45 FanDuel points per minute ranks fourth at the position on today’s slate.
