Tuesday features a five-game NBA slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Tuesday’s slate is on the smaller side, but there is plenty of star power to choose from. That starts with Luka Doncic at point guard. Doncic has struggled a bit recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus in five straight games on DraftKings, and his output has dipped to 1.52 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Still, Doncic posted a massive 42.9% usage rate in his last outing, and he’ll take the floor in a solid spot vs. the Lakers. The Mavs’ implied team total of 115.75 points ranks third on the slate, and the Lakers rank merely 20th in defensive efficiency for the year.
Doncic is worth consideration across the industry, but he’s particularly appealing on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 95%.
Tomas Satoransky has seen a boost in playing time for the Wizards recently. They’ve been playing without Kyle Kuzma, who will miss his sixth straight game on Tuesday, and Sato has logged at least 28.9 minutes in back-to-back games. He’s currently projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.77 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. His price has come up to $4,100 on DraftKings, but he still stands out as one of the best values at the position.
Killian Hayes is another excellent option at the position, and his $3,900 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%. He’s also played some of his best basketball recently, increasing his production to 0.91 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. The Pistons are clearly playing for the future at this point, so it makes sense to get Hayes more minutes than someone like Cory Joseph over the final few games.
The Lakers are in real jeopardy of falling out of the play-in tournament entirely. They’re just a half-game up on the Spurs in the loss column for the No. 10 seed in the West, and both LeBron James and Anthony Davis are doubtful for Tuesday’s matchup vs. the Mavs. They’re going to need a monster performance from Russell Westbrook to try and pull off the upset, and it’s unclear if he’s still capable of that. Still, he’s averaged 1.26 FanDuel points per minute with LeBron and AD off the court, so he has some appeal from a fantasy perspective.
Zach LaVine has been listed as questionable vs. the Wizards, and he’s a rest candidate on the second leg of a back-to-back. Still, the Bulls are now just one game ahead of the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference standings, and falling into the play-in tournament would be a disastrous scenario. No one wants to match up with the Nets, so securing a top-six seed is vital.
If LaVine does suit up, he’s an interesting buy-low target across the industry. His production has increased over the past month, but his price has remained stagnant. He also draws a solid matchup vs. the Wizards, who rank just 25th in defensive efficiency this season.
Corey Kispert is another appealing value option for the Wizards. Like Satoransky, he has seen a boost in playing time following the injury to Kuzma. Kispert is not a particularly strong per-minute producer – he’s averaged 0.65 DraftKings points per minute this season – but his combination of minutes and salary is hard to ignore. He’s projected for 33 minutes at just $3,900 on DraftKings, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.28 (per the Trends tool).
Ayo Dosunmu’s playing time has diminished with the Bulls essentially back at full strength, which has caused his salary to plummet to $3,600 on FanDuel. That makes him an awesome buy-low target. Dosunmu is still projected for 33 minutes in our NBA Models, and he can definitely pay off his reduced salary with that much playing time.
Jalen Brunson is coming off 44.0 DraftKings points in his last outing, yet his salary still decreased from $6,300 to $5,900. Brunson isn’t being asked to do quite as much with Spencer Dinwiddie now in Dallas, but he’s still averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
If LaVine is ruled out, DeMar DeRozan would become an elite pay-up option across the industry. He only has power forward eligibility on DraftKings, but he has dual SG/SF eligibility on FanDuel. He’s more valuable on the latter on Tuesday, where his $7,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%.
DeRozan has been able to pay off a $7,900 salary all season, but he should be able to crush it if LaVine is ruled out. He’s seen a team-high +6.2% usage rate bump with LaVine off the court, resulting in an average of 1.29 FanDuel points per minute. His 11 Pro Trends are also tied for the most at the position.
Reggie Bullock is a very similar player to Kispert on this slate. He’s slightly more expensive at $4,200 on DraftKings, but he’s also expected to see a few additional minutes. He also stands out as the better pure value on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 83%, and the Mavericks are implied for roughly six more points than the Wizards.
Bullock is a 3-point specialist, and he has some upside on nights where his jumper is falling. He’s scored at least 34.75 DraftKings points in two of his past four games thanks to a combined 13 3-pointers.
Wenyen Gabriel has been only listed at center in the past, but he has SF/PF eligibility on DraftKings on Thursday. That makes him very interesting at $4,000 with LeBron and Davis expected to sit. Gabriel has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute this season and is projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models.
Saddiq Bey is overpriced on DraftKings, but his $5,500 salary on FanDuel is very reasonable. His 11 Pro Trends are tied with DeRozan’s, and his price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. Bey is currently projected for 32 minutes, and he should continue to benefit from the absence of Jerami Grant.
Giannis Antetokounmpo stands out as arguably the top stud option across the industry. That’s not exactly a hot take – Giannis is one of the top studs every time he takes the floor – but there’s plenty to like about him vs. the 76ers. For starters, his price tag has decreased following a stretch of mediocre performances. He hasn’t been bad recently – he’s still averaged a stout 1.82 DraftKings points per minute over the past month – but his playing time has been sporadic.
Minutes shouldn’t be an issue in a massive contest vs. the 76ers. These two teams are currently tied in the standings, so Giannis could play a bit more than usual. Grabbing the top spot in the conference is still very realistic for the Bucks, but they need a win on Tuesday. If Giannis sees his projected 35 minutes, he has the potential for a monster performance.
Stanley Johnson is another appealing target for the shorthanded Lakers. He’s currently projected for 31 minutes at just $3,300 on DraftKings, and he’s averaged 0.73 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That’s a nice combination.
Marvin Bagley might be the best pure value at the position on DraftKings. His $5,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 83%, and Bagley has racked up at least 34.6 minutes in back-to-back games. Bagley is an outstanding per-minute producer, so he can do a lot of damage with that much playing time vs. the Nets. There are some blowout concerns here – the Pistons are 14-point underdogs – but Bagley’s upside is impossible to ignore.
The hate on Tobias Harris has gone too far. He’s down to $5,900 on FanDuel, even though he’s scored at least 29.6 FanDuel points in three of his past four games. The lone exception was a blowout win vs. the Clippers where he played just 24.8 minutes. Fire him up with confidence.
Joel Embiid is the clear top choice at center. He’s coming off 70.25 DraftKings points in his last outing, and he’s managed to retain most of his fantasy value despite James Harden joining the rotation. He’s averaged 1.63 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is in line with his season average of 1.67.
Embiid also benefits from the same dynamic as Giannis, so he should see plenty of playing time in this crucial matchup. I give Giannis the edge – he’s the better fantasy producer – but Embiid’s projections are only slightly lower and should command lower ownership.
Let’s conclude our tour of the Lakers with Dwight Howard. He’s not expected to see nearly as many minutes as Gabriel or Johnson, but he should make up for it with superior per-minute production. He’s averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute this season, and that figure increases slightly with LeBron and Davis off the floor. Howard is also very cheap across the industry, and he popped off for 39.5 DraftKings points just two games ago.
Andre Drummond is coming off a huge performance in his last outing, and his $5,500 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%. Drummond might not see as much playing time moving forward with LaMarcus Aldridge ready to return to the rotation, but he’s capable of doing damage quickly. He’s averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he can pay off his current salary without a ton of playing time.
Nikola Vucevic would also be worth considering for the Bulls if LaVine is ruled out. He’s arguably in play even if LaVine is active on FanDuel, where he leads the position with 12 Pro Trends and owns a Bargain Rating of 87%.