The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a six-game main slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Trae Young has been brilliant over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.21 on FanDuel. He’s in a fantastic spot today vs. the Washington Wizards, who have been one of the best matchups in fantasy this season. They rank sixth in pace and 29th in defensive efficiency, giving Young an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.82. The Hawks have also played at one of the fastest paces in the league, so expect this contest to feature plenty of possessions. The Hawks are currently implied for 121.5 points, and the combined total on this game sits at 242. Both rank first on the slate.
Value
Malcolm Brogdon has been ruled out for the Indiana Pacers, which opens up plenty of value at the PG position. Aaron Holiday will likely draw the start, and he’s coming off 30.9 FanDuel points in 29.6 minutes with Brogdon out of the lineup in his last contest. Holiday has absolutely crushed in 13 games without Brogdon this season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +9.8 on FanDuel.
T.J. McConnell is another interesting option. He also saw a spike in playing time without Brogdon in his last game, and he’s scored at least 30.2 FanDuel points in each of his past three contests. He’s made has mark as a distributor more than a scorer, racking up 29 assists over that time frame.
Both players stand out as awesome values on FanDuel, where each owns a Bargain Rating of 89%.
Fast Break
Ricky Rubio remains underpriced on FanDuel, where his $5,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s struggled over his past two games, but he did play just under 35 minutes in his last contest. That’s encouraging for his fantasy prospects moving forward given his average of 1.11 FanDuel points per minute this season. He also has a great matchup vs. the Grizzlies, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.67.
Elfrid Payton has scored at least 32.5 DraftKings points in four straight games, so he’s very reasonably priced at $5,500 for today’s matchup vs. the Nets. He’s played at least 31.5 minutes in three of those contests, and he’s averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute this season. The Nets have also been crushed by opposing PGs this season, giving Payton an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.23.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The top stud SG option depends on which site you’re playing.
Devin Booker stands out on DraftKings, where his $8,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%. He’s scored at least 52.75 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.63 over his past 10 contests. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.29 vs. the Grizzlies, which is one of the top marks at the position.
On FanDuel, Bradley Beal stands out as the preferred target. He’s slightly cheaper than Booker at $8,300, and his price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 73%. Beal has seen a price decrease of -$1,200 over the past month on FanDuel, and his matchup vs. the Hawks results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.87. This is an awesome buy-low opportunity.
Value
Sticking with the Suns, Mikal Bridges is underpriced on DraftKings given the sheer volume of minutes he’s been playing. He’s played at least 32.3 minutes in each of his past six games, and he’s seen as many as 40.4 minutes during that time frame. He’s currently projected for 33 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.04 (per the Trends tool). There’s no reason to shy away from him in an elite matchup vs. the Grizzlies.
Fast Break
Kevin Huerter is a strong target on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 84%. He’s been a reliable option recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games and he’s displayed a ceiling of 54.0 FanDuel points during that stretch. Virtually everyone expected to see minutes in the Wizards-Hawks game is in play, and Huerter certainly fits that description.
De’Anthony Melton has been phenomenal on a per-minute basis this season, averaging 1.11 DraftKings points per minute, and he has the chance to play a few additional minutes today. Grayson Allen has been ruled out and Jae Crowder is doubtful, and Melton is currently projected for 26.8 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s a viable option at $4,800.
Small Forward
Stud
Kawhi Leonard is coming off the first triple-double of his career in his last outing, resulting in 72.0 DraftKings points. He’s now posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past seven games, and he’s in another great spot today given the Clippers’ current injury situation. Paul George will miss his ninth straight contest, while Patrick Beverley and Patrick Patterson are both listed as questionable. Leonard has crushed in 17 games without George this season, averaging 53.0 DraftKings points and a +8.1 Plus/Minus.
That said, expectations should be slightly tempered vs. the Orlando Magic. They’ve played at the fourth-slowest pace this season, and they also rank sixth in defensive efficiency. The Clippers are currently implied for 111.0 points, which represents a significant decrease when compared to their season average (115.7).
Chris Elise/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: A close-up shot of Kawhi Leonard (2) of the Los Angeles Clippers.
Value
Kyle Anderson could draw the start today for the Grizzlies given their current injury situation. That would make him an appealing target at just $3,100 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off his current salary.
Fast Break
The Celtics’ injury report will be important to monitor heading into today’s slate. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum both missed their last contest, and both players are listed as questionable vs. the Pelicans. Make sure to stay up to date on all the latest news using the new Labs Insiders tool.
If they’re unable to suit up, Gordon Hayward would become one of the strongest targets at the position. He’s increased his usage rate by +6.5% with both players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.25 DraftKings points per minute.
The Knicks are clearly playing for the future at this point, but apparently no one has told Mike Miller. He continues to play Marcus Morris massive minutes, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all five games since returning from injury. He’s a nice value on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 87%.
Power Forward
Stud
Domantas Sabonis stands out as an elite option today. He’s been fantastic for most of the season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +1.95 on FanDuel, and he’s going to need to carry a large load for the Pacers given their current injury situation. Myles Turner will join Brogdon on the sidelines, and Sabonis has increased his fantasy production to 1.29 FanDuel points per minute with both players off the court this season.
He’s also in an excellent spot vs. the Blazers. They’ve struggled against opposing big men this season, giving Sabonis an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.61 on FanDuel. That’s the top mark at the position.
Value
Davis Bertans appears to be fully removed from the injury that caused him to miss an extended period of time. He’s currently projected for 27.2 minutes in our NBA Models, and Bertans has averaged 0.98 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s seen a price decrease of -$1,500 over the past month, so this is an excellent opportunity to buy low on him.
Fast Break
Julius Randle has increased his production to 1.31 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the third-highest mark among today’s PFs. He’s also seen plenty of playing time recently — he’s logged at least 34 minutes in four of the past five games — and he has an elite matchup vs. the Brooklyn Nets.
John Collins should be another beneficiary of this elite game environment between the Hawks and Wizards. He’s averaged a stout 1.43 FanDuel points per minute this season, and his $7,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%.
Center
Stud
The center position is a little thinner than usual at the top. That said, Nikola Vucevic definitely deserves some attention. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.82 over his past 10 games, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.46 vs. the Clippers. He leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Value
Mitchell Robinson is always a risky proposition for DFS. He has a tendency to rack up fouls in bunches, which can result in limited playing time. Still, it’s hard to ignore his upside at $4,900 on FanDuel. He’s averaged 1.21 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he can rack up fantasy points in a hurry.
Fast Break
Hassan Whiteside has a tough matchup today vs. the Pacers, but he’s simply too cheap at $8,300 on DraftKings. It results in a Bargain Rating of 94%, and Whiteside has averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.71 with a comparable price tag this season. He should also carry lower ownership than usual, which makes him an excellent pivot for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
No one at the position is projected for more minutes than Deandre Ayton. The Suns will be without Aron Baynes for at least the next week, so Ayton should continue to carry a massive workload moving forward. He’s averaged 1.37 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he has big upside today in an elite matchup vs. the Grizzlies.
Pictured: Hawks PG Trae Young (11)
Photo Credit: Jasear Thompson-NBAE via Getty Images
