NBA DFS Breakdown (Sunday, Feb. 21): Center Position Has Best Depth Sunday

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Sunday’s slate features seven games, scheduled to start at 7 p.m. ET.

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Point Guard

Stud

Kyrie Irving is the way to spend up at point guard Sunday and is a pivot off James Harden on DraftKings. The Nets get to square off against the Los Angeles Clippers in the game with the second-highest projected game total, according to the FantasyLabs Vegas Model. Brooklyn is a 5.5-point underdog and still has the fourth-highest projected team total on the slate. The Clippers have a solid defensive backcourt, which is more of a hinderance to Harden than Irving. Irving is nearly $2,000 cheaper than Harden on DraftKings and is the preferred pay-up point guard on FanDuel using the FantasyLabs NBA Model.

Value

There are a few interesting value plays across both slates, but the player that looks to benefit most is Dennis Smith Jr. The newly acquired Piston almost scored 30 fantasy points Friday without making a basket. Delon Wright is out two weeks for Detroit, giving Smith Jr. another crack at 20-plus minutes in a plus matchup against a reeling Orlando Magic backcourt. He is a top-three point guard play on DraftKings while carrying a low ownership projection and top 10 Leverage score on FanDuel.

Fast Break

Monte Morris sits atop the point guard rankings on FanDuel but I do not see the value with him. Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic are the unquestioned alphas for the Denver Nuggets and very few secondary players get to shine. Morris played just shy of 30 minutes and barely cracked 10 fantasy points. His shooting is an issue. If you’re looking for upside and fading the position, go with Smith Jr. or one of the Milwaukee Bucks point guards.

Ricky Rubio has increased his Fantasy Points Per Minute by .05 over the past month with D’Angelo Russell missing time. The pass-first guard has limitations but can stuff the stat sheet at a discount.

Murray may be the streakiest player in the NBA but is on the right side of that trait now. His price is just below the elite point guards but is expected to help lead the Nuggets offense and should see much lower ownership than some of those options.

Shooting Guard

Stud

Fred VanVleet continues to be one of the best twos in the NBA and has a plus matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers. FVV has a top five Opponent Plus/Minus on both slates and has the most ProTrends on DraftKings. I am okay fading Paul George if he is having his minutes monitored. He also ranks below FVV in our rankings.

Value

The Derrick Rose revenge narrative is in full effect against the Minnesota Timberwolves. It would not surprise me to see Tom Thibodeau give Rose extended run as they both look to hand Minnesota another loss. He is a top-three play on DraftKings in what could be a contest DFS players fade with a lower game total.

The best value on FanDuel is the red-hot Cam Reddish. He is in the midst of his best fantasy production of the season and faces a thinned-out Nuggets backcourt.

Fast Break

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected for low ownership on DraftKings and has a top-three fantasy point production. He is a top play on FanDuel but is also expected to carry higher ownership. He may be one of my favorite targets along with his opponent at the two tonight.

Collin Sexton is the top shooting guard and a top 10 overall play on FanDuel against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Delon Wright’s expected absence makes Josh Jackson an excellent lower-priced play. He has an 84% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and is expected to carry low ownership on both sites. Detroit is also a spot to target players with a low game score projection. Jackson has scored in double digits in all but one game in February.

Small Forward

Stud

Tonight is the night to pay down for your top three. Michael Porter Jr. is a top-five overall play on both sites against the Atlanta Hawks. Kevin Huerter and Danilo Gallinari at your Atlanta small forwards and neither has a prayer of guarding the athletic Porter Jr. MPJ has the top Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel and the second highest PPM on DraftKings and is tops on both sites in Points Per Salary.

If paying up for your top play is your game, Kawhi Leonard returned from injury and did not miss a beat Friday.

 Value

OG Anunoby is $5,600 on both sites — an egregious error that should be exploited. His shooting has been spotty in his return from injury, but he is averaging 10.5 attempts in his two games back and is rested after sitting out Friday for maintenance. OG’s return to the lineup could be why Ben Simmons ranks so low at small forward on DraftKings (and rightfully so).

Fast Break

The love for Denver small forwards extends to Will Barton. He is a top-three play on both sites.

R.J. Barrett is a top-10 play on FanDuel and DraftKings but is priced 11th and 19th on those sites, respectively. Anthony Edwards may be able to posterize anyone who gets in his way, but he is an easy target defensively. Malik Beasley is also not expected to slow down Barrett.

Nicolas Batum could be overlooked after playing a decoy role in his return from a migraine. Points will be had between the Nets and Clippers and Batum is a unique way to get a piece of the scoring pie with no Kevin Durant at the three.

Khris Middleton had his best game in a week Friday and has the best small forward matchup on FanDuel against the Sacramento Kings. The Kings are on a second game of a back-to-back and have health issues littering their frontcourt.

Power Forward

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo is in the nuts spot against the Kings. He has the top scoring projection on FanDuel and second-highest on DraftKings. Giannis also hits on two of my favorite ProTrends – averaging at least 25 points per game over the past month and a Projected Plus/Minus over 3.0. Those two trends lead to higher expected points compared to actual points scored. Expect massive ownership of the Greek Freak.

Value

Nerlens Noel has a juicy matchup against Minnesota and its 4.07 Opponent Plus/Minus to power forwards. Noel is eligible at the four on FanDuel but not DraftKings.

In a potential blowout spot, Bobby Portis at $5,100 on DraftKings could be a leverage spot and makes for a unique pairing with Giannis to absorb all the fantasy points from the Bucks at power forward.

Fast Break

I like a Jerami Grant bounce-back against Orlando. After a poor first half Friday, Grant salvaged his fantasy night and finished just short of 30 overall points after putting up a near goose egg in the first two quarters. He is a top-five play across both sites.

Picking which game will be a John Collins dud has been a chore. Tonight projects to be a positive one against Denver. The Nuggets will be without their top two power forwards and Nikola Jokic will be battling with Clint Capela. Atlanta-Denver projects to have the third highest game total but could end up with the highest score at the end of the evening. Collins could end up seeing Michael Porter Jr. but that should not scare you.

JaVale McGee is the dart throw of the evening as he is power forward eligible on FanDuel and sits atop the position in our model. Al Horford is matched up against Jarrett Allen, leaving McGee to pick up minutes behind Allen and in place of Cedi Osman if the Cavs decide to play bigger against an undersized Thunder team.

Center

Stud

Center continues to be filled with excellent options nightly. The best part about having such a deep player pool is the flat ownership among the top plays. Nikola Jokic and Nikola Vucevic dominate the position on FanDuel while Giannis’s dual eligibility makes him one of the better elite plays with Jokic on DraftKings.

And then there is Joel Embiid, who is laying waste to any big who gets in his way. His matchup against the bigs from Toronto hurts his ranking tonight but do you want to fade the MVP candidate? Prayers up to Aron Baynes and Chris Boucher tonight.

Value

Brook Lopez is another Buck that projects to have his way against the Kings tonight. He is the top center on DraftKings and costs a cool $4,300. Playing Lopez at the Utility spot easily allows for a two-center lineup on DraftKings.

Noel is a center on DraftKings and is $600 more than Lopez. That price jump makes it a little more difficult to pay up for two centers but is still a bargain based on projected production.

Fast Break

Clint Capela and Mason Plumlee look like the best mid-priced plays. The two are double-double threats nightly and should see low double-digit ownership at most with the dearth of talent at the position.

Al Horford is no longer a bargain, or the leverage play based on his pricing. If you are rostering him it is because you think he is among the best plays on the slate. Keep that in mind with his matchup against Cleveland.

If you are okay spending down at another position or two, Giannis and John Collins being PF/C eligible on DraftKings is a higher-priced duo that few teams will roster together.