The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
The regular season’s last day features a 12-game slate starting at 8 p.m. ET. Some teams are tanking, but there are a number of teams with something still play to for. That leaves us with a nice combination of studs and value.
Russell Westbrook needs 16 rebounds to average a triple-double for the second consecutive season. He came into last game needing 34 rebounds over his final two games to secure a 10.0-rebound average and pulled down 18, so getting at least 16 Wednesday is almost certainly going to be a thing. Westbrook has run roughshod over Memphis in two games this season, averaging 65.25 DraftKings points and an +11.43 Plus/Minus. He’s a better play on DraftKings: His Projected Plus/Minus is positive there but negative on FanDuel.
Frank Ntilikina has played 30-plus minutes in three straight games for the Knicks and put up 35.5 DraftKings points in 40 minutes last game. He’s projected for 35 minutes tonight at Cleveland yet still costs $4,700 on FanDuel and $4,300 on DraftKings. Granted, he’s a low-usage player who averages under 0.7 fantasy points per minute, and the Knicks should have definitely taken Dennis Smith Jr. over him, but Ntilikina still has upside given his playing time and price.
Shane Larkin should push for minutes in the upper 20s with Terry Rozier resting for Boston. Larkin averages right around 0.7 fantasy points per minute.
With John Wall (knee/doesn’t want to play against non-playoff teams) likely out, Tomas Satoransky should push for 30 minutes in the Wizards backcourt at Orlando. Satoransky is a FanDuel-only target, as he has a Bargain Rating of 99% there. Even then, expectations should be kept in check. Per the Trends tool, Satoransky has averaged only a +0.26 Plus/Minus and 45.5% Consistency in the 33 games in which he’s been projected for 24 or more minutes.
Damian Lillard has the highest projected ceiling at the position outside of Westbrook and makes for an interesting contrarian play against Utah.
Donovan Mitchell has one final game to make his case for rookie of the year, and he’s facing a Portland team against which he has averaged a +5.27 FanDuel Plus/Minus in three games this season. Mitchell has been a strong value of late, posting a +3.08 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.
Josh Hart is still priced at only $5,700 on FanDuel. If the recent past is any indication, he should have one more game of value left in him at that price range:
Even up at $6,500 on DraftKings, Hart is projected as one of the top values on the slate.
Luke Kennard is only $4,300 on DraftKings, where he has a resulting Bargain Rating of 99%. Kennard is projected for 32 minutes for the Pistons and should be a serviceable value play.
D’Angelo Russell has had a usage rate of 30% or more in 10 of his past 15 games. He’s a nice upside play against a Celtics team that’s resting people.
Marshon Brooks has averaged 16.3 field goal attempts for the tanking Grizzlies over his past four games; you know he’ll get his shots up. He’s a much better play on DraftKings at $6,400 than on FanDuel at $7,500.
Ben McLemore is projected for 34.3 minutes and has hit value in four of his past five games on DraftKings. He’s a cheap shooting guard if you need it.
JJ Redick has been on fire lately, averaging a +4.86 Plus/Minus and 80% Consistency in his last 10 games. Go back over the last 30 days, and it’s been nearly as strong, with a +2.74 Plus/Minus and 67% Consistency. Redick’s most negatively correlated teammate is Ben Simmons, so keep that in mind if you’re thinking about having exposure to both in tournaments.
Sean Kilpatrick has scored 27-32 FanDuel points in each of his past four games. He’ll likely play minutes in the 20s, but he has some blow-up appeal at home against Detroit.
Tyrone Wallace should still be a value play for the Clippers even with Austin Rivers back in action. The same goes for JR Smith on the Cavs with Rodney Hood out.
LeBron James has a 93% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, but he hasn’t quite lived up to his cost against the Knicks in three games this season:
The Cavs are at home, though, and that’s been the place where you’d want to play him:
Giannis Antetokounmpo is also in action Wednesday, and he too has a Bargain Rating north of 90% on DraftKings. The Bucks are in Philly tonight, which is a current match for this red flag of a trend:
Giannis has averaged 62.88 DraftKings points and a +12.31 Plus/Minus in two games against the 76ers this season, but they unsurprisingly were both at home.
Kelly Oubre is expected to play 30-plus minutes with Otto Porter out. Oubre normally scores about 0.8 fantasy points per minute, but he is capable of putting up 40-plus for the game. Oubre played at least 29 minutes in each of his past two games and hit value in both.
Rudy Gay has been flawless in his last 10:
Gay averages over one fantasy point per minute and rates as the top value on FanDuel for Wednesday’s matchup at New Orleans.
Anthony Davis‘ Pelicans are home against San Antonio. Davis may not have a split between his eyebrows, but he sure does have one between his home and road performance:
Brow has a 95% Bargain Rating on DraftKings but has averaged a -4.24 Plus/Minus and 33% Consistency in three games against the Spurs this season. Naturally, the game in which he hit value against them was at home.
On FanDuel, LaMarcus Aldridge is the top-rated stud in our Models and comes with a 98% Bargain Rating. Without Kawhi Leonard‘s scoring punch, San Antonio has resigned itself to surrounding Aldridge with good defenders and letting him carry the offense on his back. This has been especially true since the All-Star Break. Pre-break, Aldridge averaged 23.0 points on 28.6% usage; post-break, he’s averaged 25.8 points on 31.5% usage. It’s all led to exceptional daily fantasy production over the last month:
On top of that, Aldridge has averaged a higher Plus/Minus on the road (+1.7) than at home (+1.2) this season.
While Ben Simmons‘ rookie-of-the-year candidacy is drawing the ire of Donovan Mitchell, Simmons himself is drawing the ire of DFS players who’ve deployed him on FanDuel since his salary has come up:
Simmons has posted a Plus/Minus of -9 or worse in four of his past seven games despite stellar on-court play.
Eric Moreland costs $6,700 on FanDuel but only $4,300 on DraftKings. With Andre Drummond, Blake Griffin, and Dwight Buycks out for Detroit, Moreland should be in line for minutes somewhere in the range of the 32 he got last game.
Nikola Mirotic has dropped 50-plus FanDuel points for three games straight and 25 or more real points for four consecutive games. He’s projected to play 35-plus minutes tonight and makes for a great play in all formats.
Montrezl Harrell will be a top value if he goes for the Clippers against the Lakers after logging 33 minutes last game. He’s questionable with a shoulder injury, though, which means that Boban Marjanovic could get playing time.
Paul Millsap should get all the minutes he can handle in a key game for Denver at Minnesota. Millsap’s on a down three-game stretch, but that may lower his ownership. He’s flashed 50-fantasy-point upside as recently as April 1. Millsap still has a +2.51 average Plus/Minus and a 60% Consistency on FanDuel over his past 10 games.
Henry Ellenson should get minutes in the mid-20s with all the Detroit bigs out and is an option as a punt play, especially with Anthony Tolliver priced up higher than you’d like.
The Minnesota Timberwolves will host the Denver Nuggets in a battle for the Western Conference’s final playoff spot, which means we get Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Nikola Jokic. Once again, home/road splits come into play.
Here are Towns’ splits:
And here are Jokic’s:
Towns has averaged 48.67 DraftKings points and a +4.8 Plus/Minus against the Nuggets this season; Jokic has averaged 44.08 DraftKings points and a +0.8 Plus/Minus against the Wolves. As hot as Jokic has been recently (23.8 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 8.6 assists in April), the numbers point to Towns (who’s $900 cheaper on DraftKings) as the better play. That said, it’s tough to imagine that you could go wrong with either one in what should be a competitive, evenly-matched game.
Al Horford resting puts Greg Monroe in line for minutes in the upper-20s against Brooklyn. He’s averaging 1.17 FanDuel points per minute, which makes him a great value at $6,000; his DraftKings cost of $6,700 is much less enticing.
Kyle O’Quinn put up three straight 40-point fantasy games before a clunker last game against Cleveland. His price has come up, but he’s still rated as one of the best values at the position in our Models.
Willie Cauley-Stein is an interesting mid-range play on DraftKings at $6,300. His projected Plus/Minus is over +6 for the matchup with Houston. He’s posted a Plus/Minus of +7.69 or higher on DraftKings in each of his past three games.
Pictured above: Russell Westbrook
Photo credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports