The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a nine-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Today’s slate is loaded with star power, and that starts with Russell Westbrook at the PG position. Westbrook is coming off one of his worst fantasy performances of the season, scoring just eight points and committing seven turnovers against the Orlando Magic. He’s in an interesting spot today against the Dallas Mavericks. On the one hand, the Mavericks have played at the fifth-slowest pace this season, and the Thunder’s implied team total has decreased by 1.25 points since opening. On the other hand, the Mavericks have still been a nice matchup for PGs this season, giving Westbrook an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.60. He’s also been priced down to $11,300 on DraftKings, and Westbrook has historically crushed with a comparable price tag:
There aren’t many opportunities to buy low on a guy like Westbrook, but this could definitely be one.
Value
Ish Smith has played an average of just 27 minutes over his last two games, but Detroit has lost both of those in blowout fashion. His playing time should return to normal if today’s game with the Bucks remains competitive, but Smith’s salary has been decreased to just $5,300 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 0.95 fantasy points per minute over the past month, which makes him too cheap at his current salary.
Fast Break
Rajon Rondo has played over 35 minutes in back-to-back games and has averaged 1.05 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He does have a brutal matchup with the Spurs, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.27 on FanDuel, but he’s just too cheap at $5,800 if he’s going to play that much moving forward.
Houston returns to Los Angeles to face the Clippers for the first time since #SecretTunnelGate. It’s possible that Chris Paul has a little extra motivation tonight after the previous meeting, and he’s been priced down to just $8,400 on FanDuel. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of -0.63 over the past 10 games on FanDuel, but he has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the past two.
Shooting Guard
Studs
The Rockets appear to be in a great spot tonight even without the extra motivation. Their current implied team total of 117 points is tied for the top mark on today’s slate, and the Clippers are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back after allowing 120 points last night. Those numbers bode well for James Harden, who has historically crushed with a comparable implied team total and salary on FanDuel ($11,200):
He also has an excellent individual matchup, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.05.
It’s hard to argue against Harden as the top SG on any slate he’s available, but Bradley Beal makes a compelling case today. He currently leads the slate with a whopping 16 Pro Trends, and players with a comparable number of Pro Trends have historically been solid values:
There have been only five other players with at least 16 Pro Trends this season, so it’s a pretty rare occurrence. Beal is also projected for the most minutes in our NBA Models at 38.3, and the Wizards own one of the top pace differentials at +3.1.
Value
The Clippers have the potential to be shorthanded tonight. Avery Bradley is expected to miss up to the next three weeks and Tyrone Wallace was just sent down to the G-League. Danilo Gallinari is also questionable after missing the past two games with a hand injury, and it’s possible that the Clippers could look to limit Milos Teodosic a bit on the second leg of a back-to-back. That could potentially result in a lot of playing time for CJ Williams, who was just called up from the G-League to replace Wallace. He’s currently priced at just $3,200 on DraftKings and $3,500 on FanDuel, which would make him very appealing if Gallinari misses today’s contest.
Fast Break
Lou Williams has been dominant recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.46 over the past seven games on FanDuel. He’s averaged 1.09 fantasy points per minute over the past month and has dominated usage for the Clippers since they traded away Blake Griffin. He remains underpriced on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Victor Oladipo appears to be in a great spot today. He has an awesome matchup with the Atlanta Hawks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.87. He’s also been playing really well on a per-minute basis recently, averaging 1.34 fantasy points per minute over the past month, and his $9,000 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent. Oladipo did play just 23 minutes in his last game, but that was more a product of foul trouble than anything else. He should return to his normal amount of playing time today.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo has shown an awesome ceiling recently, scoring at least 70 fantasy points in two of the past four games. Some of his value has come from his sheer volume of playing time, as he’s played at least 39 minutes in each of the past four games. His matchup with the Pistons isn’t great on paper, but they’ve allowed at least 108 points in six of seven games. He’s a better value today on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent, and it’s possible that he will be slightly overlooked on a slate loaded with superstars.
Value
Josh Jackson has averaged a nice 1.03 fantasy points per minute over the past month, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +4.67 over his last 10 games on FanDuel. His salary has actually decreased by $700 over that time frame despite his production, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. He does have a tough matchup with the Memphis Grizzlies, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +1.08, but the Suns are still implied for a solid 108 points on today’s slate.
Fast Break
Jeremy Lamb doesn’t play a ton of minutes, but that hasn’t stopped him from exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games on FanDuel. He’s relied on an awesome average of 1.04 fantasy points per minute over the past month, and his $4,400 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 81 percent.
Otto Porter hasn’t garnered nearly the same attention Beal has recently, but he’s actually seen the larger usage bump with John Wall out of the lineup:
He’s averaged 1.11 fantasy points per minute over the past month and has scored at least 30 DraftKings points in eight straight games. He’s a stronger value today on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Power Forward
Stud
Pau Gasol will miss today’s contest for the Spurs, which could result in a slightly larger role for LaMarcus Aldridge. He’s seen a slight usage bump with Gasol and Kawhi Leonard off the court this season, resulting in an average of 43.84 fantasy points per 36 minutes:
He has an outstanding matchup with the New Orleans Pelicans, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.91, and he has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent on DraftKings.
Value
JaMychal Green will likely be the chalk on today’s slate, and deservedly so. He’s scored at least 25.25 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and has played at least 33.5 minutes in each of his last two. The Grizzlies also have one of the best matchups of the day against the Phoenix Suns. They’re currently implied for 109.5 points, which represents an increase of more than 10 points when compared to their seasonal average (98.8). Green has an outstanding individual matchup as well with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.53.
Fast Break
Jabari Parker played close to 27 minutes last night, and while there’s a chance that he could be rested or limited in tonight’s contest on the second leg of a back-to-back he’s not currently listed on the injury report. He remains affordable at $4,600 on DraftKings and $4,500 on FanDuel and has averaged approximately 0.98 fantasy points per minute since returning from injury earlier this month.
Marcus Morris played almost 34 minutes in his most recent game, which was his third-highest minute output of the season. He’s averaged a solid 0.90 fantasy points per minute this season, so he’s likely underpriced at $4,600 on FanDuel if he’s going to continue to see that much playing time. He has a nice matchup today with the Charlotte Hornets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.51.
Center
Studs
It’s hard to look past what Anthony Davis has done recently. His game log since February 10 is unreal:
He’s averaged a ridiculous 1.70 fantasy points per minute over the past month and has played at least 38.5 minutes in each of the past three games. Despite his unreal production, he remains affordable at $11,700 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. The only caveat is his matchup with the Spurs. The Pelicans’ implied team total of 106.75 represents a decrease of more than five points when compared to their seasonal average (112.0), and the Spurs have historically been one of the few teams to contain Davis:
That said, he did post a Plus/Minus of +5.68 in his only matchup with the Spurs this season, albeit at a salary of just $9,600. It’s obviously tough to do given his recent play, but there is a case to be made for fading Davis on today’s slate.
Virtually all the top centers are better values on DraftKings today, with one glaring exception. Marc Gasol has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent on FanDuel, which makes him incredibly enticing today against the Phoenix Suns. As bad as the Suns have been for the majority of the season, they’ve been even worse without Tyson Chandler. They’ve allowed opponents to score 119.3 points per 100 possessions with Chandler off the floor this season, which is almost nine points worse than their full-season mark of 110.5. Their rebound rate also falls to 49.0 percent, which would be the sixth worst full-season mark in the league. Gasol has not played particularly well recently, but this is a dream spot.
Value
Speaking of the Suns: Alex Len should continue to get the majority of the center minutes with Chandler still nursing a sore neck. He had scored at least 33.1 FanDuel points in three consecutive games before fouling out in 20 minutes against Davis on Monday. He’s an appealing bounceback candidate on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Fast Break
Both Andre Drummond and Clint Capela have Bargain Ratings of at least 93 percent on DraftKings, and each is in a wonderful spot today. Drummond leads all centers on DraftKings with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.00 against the Milwaukee Bucks, who have been the worst rebounding team in the league this season. Drummond has crushed the Bucks in their first three meetings this season, averaging a Plus/Minus of +9.43. Capela isn’t far behind Drummond with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.43 against the Los Angeles Clippers, and his price point of $6,900 is extremely appealing.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Photo credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports
