The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a nine-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
The Celtics will be on the second leg of a back-to-back tonight, but the fact that both games are being played in LA should make that situation less daunting. Regardless, playing on consecutive nights is something that historically hasn’t really affected Kyrie Irving:
He has a decent matchup with the Clippers, but what really makes him appealing today is his salary on FanDuel. At just $8,200, it results in a Bargain Rating of 93 percent and represents a decrease of $700 over the past month. His 12 Pro Trends are also tied for the most among today’s PGs.
Value
Dejounte Murray absolutely smashed against the Cavaliers yesterday, scoring 52.5 FanDuel points in just under 30 minutes of playing time. He remains pretty affordable across the industry, although things likely won’t come nearly as easy for him today against the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies and Spurs have played at the two slowest paces in the league this season and the result is an over/under of just 191 for today’s contest.
One positive for Murray is that the Spurs have the potential to be even more shorthanded than they were yesterday. Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge, Manu Ginobili, and Rudy Gay should all remain out while Pau Gasol and Tony Parker are both questionable to play on the second leg of a back-to-back. The Spurs haven’t played a ton of minutes with all six of those players off the court, but Murray has led the team with a usage rate of 33.2 percent and averaged a ridiculous 50.77 DraftKings points per 36 minutes:
Despite the tough matchup, he should be extremely chalky.
Fast Break
Jerian Grant posted a huge performance in his first game without Kris Dunn and will have a chance to make it two in a row tonight against the 76ers. Philadelphia represents a great matchup for Grant, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.94, and he remains affordable on DraftKings at $5,800.
Jimmy Butler and Jamal Crawford are both unlikely to play today, which means that Jeff Teague should see a nice bump in usage for today’s contest against the Blazers. So far this season, he’s averaging 33.76 FanDuel points per 36 minutes with both players off the court:
At just $6,000, that kind of production would be enough to return value.
Kyle Lowry has one of the best matchups of the day at the position, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.10 against the Atlanta Hawks. The Raptors are implied for a strong 110.25 points and Lowry has posted a Consistency Rating of 91 percent over the past month.
Shooting Guard
Studs
James Harden is getting closer to returning to full strength. So is his salary, which has been increased across the industry to reflect that. His matchup today with the Mavericks is also less than ideal. Dallas has played at one of the slower paces in the league and have improved a bit defensively after a dreadful start to the season. The Rockets’ resulting implied team total of 112.25 points is still the third highest mark on the slate, but it does represent a decrease of nearly 2.5 points when compared to their season average. Harden also doesn’t have a great history against this team, owning a negative average Plus/Minus in five meetings over the last two seasons:
It doesn’t seem like a great spot for Harden.
Andrew Wiggins scored 48.7 FanDuel points in his most recent outing, yet his salary actually decreased on FanDuel by $100 for today’s contest. He’s seen the largest usage bump on the team with Butler and Crawford off the court, resulting in a usage rate of 30.6 percent and an average of over 35 FanDuel points per 36 minutes:
Even in a relatively tough matchup against the Trail Blazers, he’s close to a must-play on FanDuel.
Value
Timothe Luwawu-Cabbarot has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the injury to JJ Redick, playing 29 minutes in each of the last two games. T.J. McConnell is also set to miss today’s game for personal reasons, so that number only figures to increase against the Chicago Bulls. It’s a solid matchup for TLC, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.99 on DraftKings. He’s just too cheap across the industry given the amount of minutes he could see in today’s contest.
Fast Break
Devin Booker has seen a solid price decrease on FanDuel for today’s matchup with the Pacers, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93 percent. It’s a tough spot for him, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.67, but he does lead all SG eligible players with 12 Pro Trends.
Small Forward
Stud
Ben Simmons hasn’t just hit the rookie wall, he’s smashed into it. He’s seen a massive salary decrease across the industry over the past month, but it hasn’t stopped him from posting some dreadful fantasy numbers over his last 10 games:
Still, there is a lot to like with Simmons for today’s contest. He has one of the largest minute projections in our NBA Models given the 76ers’ current injury situation. He also has one of the best matchups of the day, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.00 on DraftKings. Finally, his $7,600 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent. He still might be too tough to trust for cash games given his recent performances, but he has a lot of upside for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Value
Lets stick with the 76ers. Robert Covington is another player who has been a bit of a disappointment recently, although he has exceeded salary-based expectations in two straight games. He’s averaged 0.91 fantasy points per minute over the course of the season. That kind of production would make him a major value given his current salary ($5,700) and minute projection (39.6).
Justin Anderson will also likely see some increased burn for Philly. He’s priced at the dead minimum across the industry and could be an intriguing pivot off some of the chalkier 76ers in GPPs.
Nemanja Bjelica will likely draw another start for the injured Butler and didn’t disappoint in the same situation on Monday. He scored 34.8 FanDuel points in over 34 minutes, and like Wiggins, did not see any sort of a price increase on FanDuel for today’s contest against the Trail Blazers. He should be extremely popular over there, where he has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Fast Break
Given all the value options available, almost no one is going to pay up at SF on today’s slate. That could make a guy like Harrison Barnes intriguing. He’s crushed value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.83 on FanDuel over his last 10 games. He’s in one of the top pace-up spots of the day against the Houston Rockets. The Mavs’ current implied team total of 105.75 is roughly three points higher than their season average.
Power Forward
Studs
There’s a lot of value and not a lot of studs on today’s slate, which will potentially push people in the direction of Anthony Davis. That makes sense as he’s been a strong value recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.00 on DraftKings over his last 10 games. The Pelicans’ implied team total of 111 points ranks fifth on today’s slate. He’s a much stronger play on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Value
Montrezl Harrell should continue to start with the Clippers actively shopping DeAndre Jordan, and he’s been a major value in that role so far this season. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last seven games on DraftKings and has averaged 27.2 fantasy points per game with Jordan out of the lineup:
He remains affordable across the industry.
LaMarcus Aldridge was just ruled out for the Spurs, which really puts their rotation for tonight’s game into question. One guy who looks like a potential value is Davis Bertans. He played 29.5 minutes yesterday in relief of Gasol and could see an even larger workload with Aldridge out today. He’s averaged a solid 0.8 fantasy points per minute on the season and is near minimum priced at $3,900 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
After briefly flirting with Gorgui Dieng, Tom Thibodeau is back to playing Taj Gibson all the minutes he can handle. He’s played at least 37 in four straight games, which gives him a pretty safe floor at $5,600 on FanDuel.
Have I mentioned anyone for Philly yet? Dario Saric is another member of the squad who has seen an increase in value since the injury to Redick, scoring at least 30.7 FanDuel points in each of his last three games.
Center
Studs
As usual, there’s a big pricing discrepancy between FanDuel and DraftKings for some of the top centers on today’s slate.
Let’s start with Joel Embiid. He’s averaged 1.44 fantasy points per minute over the past month, which is second to only DeMarcus Cousins among centers on today’s slate. That said, his $9,700 salary on DraftKings makes him nearly $2,000 less than Cousins and gives Embiid a Bargain Rating of 99 percent. He also has an excellent matchup today with the Bulls, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.60.
It’s much tougher to play Embiid on FanDuel, where he has an $11,000 price tag and a Bargain Rating of zero percent. Instead, consider Karl-Anthony Towns. Towns has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent on FanDuel, which is a major anomaly among the high-priced centers:
He didn’t see much of a bump in usage in his most recent game without Butler, but Butler being out of the lineup still figures to be a positive for him in the long term. He has a strong matchup today against the Blazers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.95.
Value
Tyson Chandler did not play in the Suns’ most recent game, which means he should be all systems go today against the Pacers. The Pacers have been one of the worst teams against centers all season, giving Chandler an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.74 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
If Dwight Howard can avoid foul trouble, he could be in a really nice spot today against the New Orleans Pelicans. The Pelicans have struggled with opposing centers all season, giving Howard an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.43 on DraftKings. The Hornets also lead the slate with an implied team total of 113 points, which is more than seven points higher than their season average.
Good luck!
Photo via Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
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