Tuesday brings two slates of different sizes at 7pm ET. In its six-game main slate DraftKings is not including the two late games — Nuggets at Blazers and Wizards and Lakers. FanDuel is including all games in the main slate, which is thus eight games. Keep that in mind. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets
Vegas: 223 Total, Rockets -1.5
This game has the highest Vegas total in the slate at 223 points and marks the first time all season the Warriors are underdogs (they were 10.5-point dogs in their last game against the Spurs when they sat their starters, but I’m removing that from the sample). Last season, the Warriors were dogs five times: Stephen Curry played in four of those contests, and Klay Thompson and Draymond Green played in all five. Here’s how they fared:
- Curry: 52.25 DraftKings points, +2.6 Plus/Minus
- Green: 42.35 DraftKings points, +1.0 Plus/Minus
- Thompson: 35.95 DraftKings, +2.2 Plus/Minus
Those are unimpressive Plus/Minus values, but this is also a much different team, even if it seems similar now with Kevin Durant out. For what it’s worth, their respective DraftKings salaries today require just 44.65, 38.15, and 35.15 points to hit value. If they put up similar production (which probably isn’t a fair expectation), they will post better Plus/Minus marks due to their lower salaries.
This will be their third meeting of the season with the Rockets and their first without Durant. He eviscerated them in their prior two games, averaging 64.13 DraftKings points and a +14.7 Plus/Minus. Draymond wasn’t too far behind, however, averaging 50.63 points and a +13.5 in his two games. Steph and Klay averaged 43.25 and 24.13 points, respectively. There is certainly upside here for the remaining Big 3, as Houston ranks fourth in pace, averaging 102.2 possessions per 48 minutes, and just 16th in defensive efficiency, allowing 105.9 points per 100 possessions.
The Rockets are most susceptible to wings and centers, as evidenced by their Plus/Minus marks allowed (per the Trends tool):
- SG: 25.48 average points, +3.4 Plus/Minus, 65 percent Consistency
- C: 29.91 average points, +2.8 Plus/Minus, 57 percent Consistency
- SF: 26.83 average points, +2.4 Plus/Minus, 59 percent Consistency
From that data, it seems like Draymond and Klay would be the players to target. However, Klay has been mediocre this year in close games: In the 18 instances in which the Warriors have been favored by no more than eight points, Klay has posted only a +0.95 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Although, to be fair, Draymond hasn’t been much better, posting a +0.76 Plus/Minus. However, given his historical success against the fast-paced Rockets, he seems like a safer bet to hit value in this star-studded affair.
Curry: DFS Scouting Report
Thompson: DFS Scouting Report
Green: DFS Scouting Report
In their first two meetings this year against the Warriors, here’s how the Rockets fared:
- James Harden: 58.75 DraftKings points, +0.6 Plus/Minus
- Clint Capela: 30.25 DraftKings points, +8.4 Plus/Minus
- Sam Dekker: 29.63 DraftKings points, +15.7 Plus/Minus
- Eric Gordon: 25.88 DraftKings points, +1.5 Plus/Minus
- Montrezl Harrell: 23.63 DraftKings points, +5.5 Plus/Minus
- Patrick Beverley: 22.75 DraftKings points, -0.4 Plus/Minus
- Trevor Ariza: 20.38 DraftKings points, -5.0 Plus/Minus
This exemplifies the ongoing issue with rostering Rockets players despite their nightly high totals: They are incredibly balanced, and outside of Harden it is very common for the rest of the rotation players all to score between 15 and 30 fantasy points. That’s fine in a vacuum, but they 1) probably don’t help DFS players win many guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), and 2) it’s hard to predict which player will be in the 30-ish range and which will be in the 15-ish range.
That said, there are still values to be found. Gordon, for example, is only $4,900 on FanDuel and has averaged a +2.80 Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency over his last 10 games. Capela has been even better, averaging a large +6.28 Plus/Minus on 90 percent Consistency over that same time frame:
Harden will be an intriguing player in this slate: He scored ‘only’ 41.0 FanDuel points on Sunday against the Thunder, but he had gone for at least 63 in each of his last four prior to that. He scored at least 38 real points in each of those four contests, and he’s posted double-digit assists in each of his last eight games. His usage has come back up since the inclusion of Lou Williams, and he is again the singular catalyst for the Rockets’ offense. He is $12,500 and requires 52.74 points to hit value, but the Rockets are also implied for 117.25 points.
Harden: DFS Scouting Report
Point Guards
Reggie Jackson has been ruled out today to rest, and here’s a blurb from our NBA News feed on the situation in Detroit:
Jackson has already been ruled out of Tuesday’s contest vs. the Heat after resting on Monday, and coach Stan Van Gundy is contemplating shutting Jackson down for the rest of the season. Van Gundy talked with the team owner Tom Gores about resting Jackson but Jackson resisted profusely. Ish Smith remained in the starting lineup on Monday and logged 35 minutes on his way to 32.5 DraftKings points while Beno Udrih played 13 minutes off the bench as the backup point guard. If Jackson is shut down for the season, Smith will continue to be highly owned in cash games until his price elevates.
Smith is still only $4,500 on FanDuel, which means that in the starting PG role he should be one of the highest-owned players in tonight’s slate, even against a tough Miami defense that ranks fifth on the year, allowing just 104.1 points per 100 possessions. Pro subscribers can review Smith’s ownership (and that of other players) with our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock.
Per the NBA On/Off tool, Smith has averaged 25.35 FanDuel points and a +3.0 Plus/Minus in 29.6 minutes per game without Jackson in the lineup this season. He needs just 17.62 points to hit value tonight.
The Denver Nuggets remain the worst team in the league against opposing PGs this season, allowing an average of 32.04 FanDuel points and a +6.50 Plus/Minus on an impressive 75.6 percent Consistency to players projected for at least 15 fantasy points. They’ll have to deal with a red-hot Damian Lillard tonight, who is helping the Blazers push for the eighth seed: Over his last 10 games, he’s averaged a +7.32 Plus/Minus on 90 percent Consistency. He hasn’t scored fewer than 40 FanDuel points in seven straight games, and he’s been predictably awesome against the Nuggets this season, averaging 55.9 FanDuel points:
He’s a better value on FanDuel, where his $9,400 salary comes with a 99 percent Bargain Rating and position-high 13 Pro Trends, which Pro subscribers can access in our Player Models. This game has huge playoff implications, as the Blazers and Nuggets are tied in the eighth spot at 35-38. Lillard is about as safe as a DFS asset gets.
Lillard: DFS Scouting Report
If you want to pivot up in tournaments from the likely chalky Smith, Jeremy Lin sits at only $5,900 on DraftKings and $5,800 on FanDuel, and he has an elite matchup against a tanking 76ers squad. Philadelphia ranks fifth in pace this year, averaging 101.1 possessions/48. Also, while they rank a respectable 14th on defense, allowing 105.7 points/100, the 76ers have been miserable without Joel Embiid on the floor: Per nbawowy.com, they’ve allowed 111.2 points/100 with Embiid off the floor, which would be slightly worse than the Lakers’ league-worst Defensive Rating.
This game will likely be fast-paced — the Nets rank first in pace on the year — and Lin has posted high usage during his relatively short time on the floor. He’s played only 28.5 and 20.5 minutes over the last two games, but he’s put up 28 field-goal attempts during that span, and he went off for 37.8 FanDuel points on Sunday against the Hawks. He has only nine to 12 percent projected ownership on FanDuel (compared to a conservative estimate of 17-20 percent for both Smith and Lillard), which makes him an intriguing GPP pivot.
Shooting Guards
Gerald Henderson has been ruled out of tonight’s game against the Nets, and Sergio Rodriguez is also questionable with left hamstring tightness. In the five games that he’s missed over the past two months, his minutes have been distributed to Justin Anderson, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, and Nik Stauskas:
None of those guys have been very efficient in their time: They have averaged just 0.68, 0.54, and 0.68 FanDuel points per minute during those games, but they are priced near the minimum on both DraftKings and FanDuel in an elite matchup against a Nets team that ranks first in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency. Stauskas will likely be the most popular option of the three, as he’s the best bet to approach 30 minutes and he leads the trio with a 95 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel. At his low $3,600 price tag there, he needs just 13.67 FanDuel points to hit value. Even with low efficiency, he brings safety given the minutes and matchup.
The Houston guys will obviously be very popular, and Tim Hardaway Jr. could be an intriguing pivot up from Gordon in GPPs. He’s been playing huge minutes of late — he’s gone 39 in the last two games — and he has a brilliant matchup against a Phoenix Suns team that ranks second in pace, averaging 102.7 possessions/48, and 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 109.1 points/100.
The Hawks remain thin, as Paul Millsap, Kent Bazemore, and Thabo Sefolosha will miss Tuesday’s game. Hardaway will start on the wing alongside rookie Taurean Prince, and in four games this season sans Millsap and Bazemore he has averaged 7.5 more FanDuel points and a +2.3 Plus/Minus differential. He will match up against Devin Booker, who ranks 90th out of 99 eligible SGs this season with a poor -2.24 Defensive Real Plus-Minus. Hardaway is a better value on FanDuel, where his $5,900 salary comes with eight Pro Trends and a huge 97 percent Bargain Rating.
Small Forwards
Speaking of Prince: He’s only $3,800 on FanDuel with both Bazemore and Sefolosha out. In the only game (this past Sunday) that those two and Millsap have all been out, Prince played 38.4 minutes and finished with 32.7 FanDuel points on 13 shots. He has seven steals and two blocks over his last three games, and he certainly has a lot of offensive and defensive upside against a Suns team that plays fast, ranking second in pace, but not particularly well: They rank 26th in turnover ratio, giving the ball up on 13.5 percent of their possessions. But really this play is about Prince’s silly salary in relation to his current role: He’s second among all FanDuel players today with a +7.56 Projected Plus/Minus.
Playoff Paul George continues to play well: He hasn’t gone under 30 minutes in nine straight games, and he’s averaging an impressive +5.82 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 60 percent Consistency over his last 10 games. For the first two weeks after the All-Star break, the Minnesota defense was one of the best in the league, but it has since regressed. The Timberwolves now rank 18th in defensive efficiency, allowing 107.0 points/100, since the All-Star break. These two teams met earlier in the season, and PG responded with 43.3 FanDuel points and an +11.63 Plus/Minus against Andrew Wiggins and company. Further, PG is back at home today, where he’s been better this season, averaging a +3.37 Plus/Minus on 62.5 percent Consistency. He’s the most expensive option in the slate at $8,600 on FanDuel — Giannis Antetokounmpo is more expensive on DraftKings at $9,700 — but George has gone for 40-plus points in three of his last four games.
George: DFS Scouting Report
Antetokounmpo: DFS Scouting Report
Robert Covington has been very up and down of late:
That said, Philly could be thin today: Henderson is out, Rodriguez is questionable, Okafor is out, and of course Embiid is out the rest of the season. In two games this year without Hendo and the missing bigs, Covington has averaged 32.95 FanDuel points and a +3.4 Plus/Minus in 35.0 minutes per game. He experienced a 3.3 percentage point bump in usage rate in those contests, which helped him increase his value despite posting an awful 90.9 Offensive Rating while on the floor. The 76ers played at a swift 104.95 pace in those contests, and this game will likely be an up-and-down affair against the fastest team in the league, the Nets. DFSers could flock to Stauskas, Anderson, and T.J. McConnell for the excess value today, but Covington has underappreciated upside and may carry lower ownership.
Power Forwards
Fair warning: I’m going to mention at least two more Hawks in this breakdown. That’s what happens when three starters and essentially 90-plus minutes of action get distributed suddenly to cheap players. Ersan Ilyasova will continue to start at the PF spot in Millsap’s absence, and he’s been solid during that time: In the past four games sans Bazemore and Millsap, Ilyasova has averaged 23.8 FanDuel points and a +5.7 Plus/Minus in 29.8 minutes per game. And that doesn’t even factor in the subtraction of Sefolosha in their rotation: On Sunday, Ilyasova went for 30.1 fantasy points in 32.1 minutes of action and took 14 shots. His increased role, his opponent in the awful Phoenix Suns, and his low $4,800 salary on FanDuel will likely make him a popular option yet again. I declare today Hawks DFS day.
Richaun Holmes has been an easy plug-and-play lately when Jahlil Okafor has been out. Okafor will miss his fourth of five games, which means that Holmes will likely get the start at the center spot against a Nets team that ranks first in pace, 26th in defensive efficiency, and 28th in rebound rate on the year, grabbing only 48.2 percent of the available boards. Given the matchup and Holmes’ reasonable $5,700 price tag, Holmes is in play.
However, Holmes may have some underappreciated risk: Shawn Long did get up to 23.4 minutes on Sunday and finished with 29.5 FanDuel points on 15 real points and 10 rebounds. Further, Tiago Splitter may make his 2016-17 debut: He’s listed as questionable but did go through shootaround this morning. Again, Holmes does bring a lot of safety given Philly’s current lack of depth and the matchup, but he could be a worthwhile fade in tournaments.
If you want to pay up at the position, Draymond will likely be the choice. For many people, the choice won’t be Nikola Jokic, who played just 18.5 minutes on Sunday against the Pelicans and has been very poor as a DFS asset of late, averaging a -1.42 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 50 percent Consistency over his last 10 games:
You see that tall green line, though? That marks a game last Friday in which he exploded for 55.9 fantasy points in 34.4 minutes of action thanks to 30 real points and 17 rebounds: coach Mike Malone couldn’t take him out because of his dominant performance. His minutes have been down lately — you have to trade for and then play Mason Plumlee 20 minutes, right? — but remember that he still possesses that immense ceiling tonight, even if it’s a longshot. Further, this game is incredibly important, as, again, the Blazers and Nuggets are tied for the eighth spot in the Western Conference playoff race. Jokic put up 55.4 FanDuel points against them in their first meeting this year, and he might have something to say against former teammate Jusuf Nurkic.
Centers
Let’s get the last Hawk out of the way. In four games this season without Bazemore and Millsap, Dwight Howard has averaged 35.45 FanDuel points and a +6.9 Plus/Minus in 32.2 minutes per game. He’s increased his usage rate by 3.2 percentage points up to 22.3 percent in those games, and they’ve also played faster by 2.8 possessions/48. As it is, pace won’t be an issue against a Phoenix team that ranks second in pace this season. The Suns have been especially poor against opposing centers lately, allowing an average Plus/Minus of +4.65 on 73.3 percent Consistency to the position in March. This is a ‘pace-up’ game for Dwight — the Suns average almost three more possessions/48 than the Hawks — and in 14 such games this year Dwight has averaged a +5.64 Plus/Minus on 71 percent Consistency. He should be a popular option today, especially on FanDuel, where his $7,200 salary comes with a 93 percent Bargain Rating.
Brook Lopez has been surprisingly consistent of late, considering the Nets don’t often give heavy minutes to any single player: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games, averaging a +2.93 FanDuel Plus/Minus during that time. He leads all centers in the slate with a massive +5.85 Opponent Plus/Minus against the 76ers, who defend at the league’s worst rate without rim protector Joel Embiid on the floor. Lopez has averaged 43.6 FanDuel points and a +13.91 Plus/Minus in two meetings against the 76ers this year, and he’s crushed value against the league’s worst teams (those with winning percentages of 35 or worse):
If you want to pay up to be contrarian: Karl-Anthony Towns will look to rebound from an awful 22.0-point FanDuel performance on Saturday against the Blazers. He is on the road today, where he has notably negative splits:
- Home: 51.15 average DraftKings points, +7.4 Plus/Minus, 78 percent Consistency
- Away: 45.05 average DraftKings points, -0.2 Plus/Minus, 50 percent Consistency
That said, those splits have been negligible over the past two months:
- Home: 49.8 average DraftKings points, +1.6 Plus/Minus, 63 percent Consistency
- Away: 50.21 average DraftKings points, +0.6 Plus/Minus, 53 percent Consistency
Intriguingly, he’s averaged more DraftKings points on the road in 13 games since the beginning of February. He’s pricey today as usual at $10,100, but he also predictably carries the position’s highest projected ceiling and has upside against an Indiana team that ranks 27th in rebound rate on the year, grabbing just 48.3 percent of the available boards. He dropped 58.0 fantasy points on them in their first meeting in late January.
Towns: DFS Scouting Report
Good luck!
News Updates
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