The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a six-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook headlines the PG position on today’s slate and is coming off a 70-point fantasy performance in his last outing before the All-Star break. He leads all PGs with 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent. That said, he does have a mediocre fantasy matchup versus the Sacramento Kings. The Kings have played at the fifth-slowest pace this season, which results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +1.25 for Westbrook. He’s still one of the safest options available for cash games, evidenced by a Consistency Rating of 89 percent over the past year, but his ceiling may be a little lower than usual.
Value
Emmanuel Mudiay figures to get a long look from the Knicks for the rest of the season. He has loads of potential as a former lottery pick but has been unable to find consistent success at the NBA level. However, he has been really good from a fantasy perspective, averaging 0.92 fantasy points per minute this season and 1.03 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He also has one of the top matchups of the day regardless of position against the Orlando Magic, who have been eviscerated by opposing PGs all season. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.08 on DraftKings and +4.79 on FanDuel. He should be a popular option at his current salary across the industry.
Fast Break
Kris Dunn returned to the starting lineup for the Bulls in their last game, and he figures to retain that role for the rest of the season with Cameron Payne serving as his backup. Dunn has been quite productive from a fantasy perspective, averaging 1.12 fantasy points per minute, and he’s currently projected for 27.5 minutes in our NBA Models. That would make him a solid value at $6,400 on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Tomas Satoransky has quietly been a very nice fantasy option for the Wizards recently. He’s scored at least 30.5 DraftKings points in three straight games and has seen at least 33 minutes of playing time in all three. He has a strong matchup today versus the Cavaliers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.92 on DraftKings. The Cavs’ overhauled roster has yet to really show that they’ve improved much defensively, and George Hill in particular has been one of the worst defensive players in the league this season according to ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM) metric.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Bradley Beal remains intriguing with the Wizards still without John Wall, and especially given his matchup against the Cavs. Cleveland has been a disaster defensively all season, and they’ve been particularly poor against opposing wing players. The matchup results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.63 for Beal on DraftKings. The Cavs have also historically been one of Beal’s favorite matchups: He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.66 over his past nine games against them:
Value
The Nets seem like they’re ready to unleash D’Angelo Russell after initially showing caution with him following his knee injury. He played 28.5 minutes in his last game before the All-Star break, which makes him really intriguing at just $5,600 on DraftKings. He’s posted a usage rate of 34.1 percent and averaged 1.17 fantasy points per minute this season, so he can do a lot of damage when he’s on the court. The Nets have also averaged approximately six additional possessions per game with Russell on the court this season, which bodes well for the fantasy prospects of everyone in this game.
Fast Break
Lou Williams has carried a huge load for the Clippers this season, resulting in an average of 1.08 fantasy points per minute on FanDuel. The Clippers will be a bit shorthanded at the SG position, with Avery Bradley ruled out for today’s contest with a sports hernia. He has a solid matchup with the Warriors, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.50, but there is some blowout concern with the Clippers currently listed as 11-point underdogs.
J.J. Redick will rarely put up a huge performance, but he has exceeded value in four of his past five games on FanDuel. He’s in a solid position to return value again today against the Chicago Bulls. The 76ers’ implied team total of 110.25 points is tied for fifth on the slate, and Redick has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.21. He’s a slightly better value on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Small Forward
Studs
The SF position on today’s slate features two of the biggest names in the game in LeBron James and Kevin Durant. Both players appear to be in wonderful spots; choosing between the two will be difficult.
Let’s start with LeBron. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in both games since the Cavs overhauled their roster, which isn’t exactly surprising. He has thrived this season with Isaiah Thomas and Kevin Love off the court, averaging 1.53 fantasy points per minute, and none of the Cavs’ new additions figure to command nearly as much usage as either of those players. He has a nice matchup today versus the Wizards, who he roasted for 92.7 FanDuel points earlier this season. That’s not really an outlier game either, as James as historically fared well against them:
He’s probably the safer option of the two stud SFs for cash games, especially on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Durant’s performances are a little more volatile than LeBron’s – he’s posted a Consistency Rating of just 72 percent over the past month – but he arguably has more upside today. The Warriors lead the slate with an implied team total of 122.25 points, which is high even for their lofty standards. Durant has historically been a nice value when the Warriors have been implied for a comparable total:
He also has an awesome individual matchup versus the Clippers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.64. He’s $1,500 cheaper than LeBron on DraftKings and projected for just 9-12 percent ownership, which makes him very appealing for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Value
David Nwaba started in the Bulls’ last game, sending Justin Holiday to the bench. He’s been solid as a starter this season, averaging 9.0 points and 6.7 rebounds per game in 28 minutes of playing time. He’s currently priced at $3,500 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, so that kind of production would be more than enough for him to return value at his current salary.
Fast Break
The SF position is loaded on today’s slate. Michael Beasley has been a very strong option in 11 games without Kristaps Porzingis this season, averaging over 30 FanDuel points per contest:
He’s averaged only 31 minutes per game in those contests, which seems like a conservative projection for him today after playing 39 and 40 minutes in his past two games. He’s a better value on FanDuel, where his $7,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81 percent.
DeMarre Carroll could be overlooked on this slate, but he definitely deserves some consideration given his recent play. He’s exceeded-salary based expectations in five straight games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +9.25 over that time frame. He has a nice matchup versus the Charlotte Hornets, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.65 on FanDuel.
Power Forward
Stud
Has Ben Simmons finally broken through the rookie wall? He’s scored at least 40 fantasy points in six of his past seven games, culminating in a 55.40-point FanDuel performance in his final game before the break. His average of 1.25 fantasy points per minute over the past month is much closer to his production from earlier this season, and he’s posted a perfect 100 percent Consistency Rating over his past 12 games. That kind of safety increases his appeal at a typically weak position.
Value
Quincy Acy has played at least 30 minutes in three straight games, and that kind of time is rare for a player with a $3,800 salary. He’s projected to crack the 30-minute mark again today, and PFs with comparable minute projections and salaries have historically been awesome values:
Fast Break
Lauri Markkanen has had an excellent rookie season so far, averaging 0.99 fantasy points per minute. He’s been priced down to just $6,000 on DraftKings, so he doesn’t need to play much to have a chance to return value.
Marvin Williams has one of the best matchups at the position on today’s slate, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.08 against the Brooklyn Nets. His fantasy production has been way down this season – he’s averaged just 0.69 fantasy points per minute over the past month – but he did play 32 minutes in his last game before the All-Star break. That kind of playing time would give him a good shot at returning value in this matchup at just $4,200 on FanDuel.
Center
Studs
The center position features two very strong options at the top in Joel Embiid and Dwight Howard. Embiid is obviously the better player, and he’s averaged a stout 1.42 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He missed the 76ers’ final game before the break, but he should be good to go after playing 20 minutes in the All-Star Game. That said, Howard might be the preferred option of the two on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent. He has a dream matchup against the Nets, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.26.
Value
Cristiano Felicio will likely be a popular value option at the minimum on both DraftKings and FanDuel after entering the starting lineup. He has considerable upside at his price tag given his average of 0.92 fantasy points per minute over the past month, but he has considerable downside as well. Felicio has a brutal individual matchup against Embiid, which is especially concerning given that he’s struggled with foul trouble in the past. He could easily find himself spending a large portion of this game watching from the sidelines. He’s tough to ignore in GPPs but might be too volatile for cash games.
Fast Break
Enes Kanter is one of the few center options who is a slightly better value today on FanDuel. He has a Bargain Rating of 81 percent, which is substantially higher than the marks of most of the other top centers:
He’s seen a nice boost in playing time since the injury to Porzingis, playing at least 32 minutes in three of his past four games, and his average of 1.26 fantasy points per minute over the past month trails only Embiid’s at the position.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Photo credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
