The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Jacob Misiorowski (R) $11,500 Milwaukee Brewers (-225) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
It’s hard to overstate how good Misiorowski has been this season, both from a real-life perspective and in DFS. He showed traces of it in his 2025 rookie season, finishing with a strikeout rate north of 30%, but he has made huge strides forward in 2026. Through 10 starts, he’s maintained an ERA below 2.00, with his strikeout rate all the way up at 39% and a swinging strike rate that suggests the number is somewhat sustainable.
The only even mild criticism would be his lack of pitching deep into games. He’s thrown 57 innings through ten starts for an average a bit under six innings per start, but even that has improved in recent starts. He’s finished the sixth frame (or more) in four of his last five starts, with his average dragged down by a shorter leash early in the season.
All of that has added up to an average of 26.3 DraftKings points per game, an elite number at any price tag. A matchup with a slightly above-average Cardinals lineup doesn’t necessarily raise our expectations, but even if he performs slightly below his average scoring, he’s still far and away the best pitcher on the slate. He has a massive lead in median and ceiling projections and ranks fourth in Pts/Sal projection despite his massive salary.
It’s probably impossible to roster Misiorowski and the top stack today, or Misiorowski and another top pitcher, making it a tricky strategy decision to roster him or not. However, that also means his ownership will be at least slightly lower, which is another check in the positive column.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Nolan McLean (R) $8,700 New York Mets (-160) vs. Cincinnati Reds
The pitcher we’re projecting for the highest ownership is the Mets’ McLean, another second-year off to a solid sophomore season. He’s no Misiorowski, but a 3.57 ERA and a strikeout rate just under 30% are nothing to scoff at, especially with his ERA indicators about half a run lower.
He’s got two things going for him over Misiorowski today. The obvious one is salary, with McLean coming in nearly $3,000 cheaper. That means you can roster him with another solid arm and/or more easily fit him around the stronger offensive stacks of the day.
The other factor in his favor is the matchup. The Reds’ wRC+ against right-handed pitching is 15 points lower than the Cardinals’, and they also strike out at a slightly higher rate. McLean doesn’t have the raw strikeout upside of Misiorowski, but if he’s able to throw seven scoreless innings, he might not need it.
With very similar Vegas data and projections within a couple of points of Misiorowski, McLean is the much stronger price-considered option today. He’s also the leader in Pts/Sal projection by a wide margin, which will make him the most popular play on the slate.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Shane McLanahan (L) $9,000 Tampa Bay Rays (-136) at Baltimore Orioles
McLanahan is projecting about five points short of McLean in both median and ceiling projections, making him a tough click at $300 more in salary. Of course, we have to roster two pitchers, and it’s a lot easier to fit McLanahan with McLean than spend more than $20,000 on two pitchers with Misiorowski. McLanahan has been solid with a 25% strikeout rate and an ERA south of three. Since the Orioles are bad against lefties with an 89 wRC+, the McLean/McLanahan pairing makes a lot of sense today.
Ben Brown (R) $6,700 Chicago Cubs (-123) at Pittsburgh Pirates
The best option to pair with Misiorowski is probably Ben Brown, the Cubs starter who ranks fourth in median projection despite a budget price. His numbers are every bit as good as McLean’s, with a 2.09 ERA and a 26% strikeout rate, though both feel slightly unsustainable based on his underlying numbers. It’s a much tougher matchup, though, as the Pirates have a top-five wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and they’re implied for four runs. It’s probably worth the risk with slightly pitcher-friendly weather, but it’s a risk nonetheless.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the New York Yankees:
Eleven of the 12 teams on Monday’s early slate are implied for 4.5 runs or less. The twelfth is the Yankees, who check in at 5.1 runs, more than half a run clear of any other team.
Of course, with all of the stars in the Yankees lineup, they’re priced as the top team on the slate, which makes for some tough decisions given the price points of the best pitchers. An extra half run implied isn’t really worth the $3,000+ premium for the Yankees relative to some of the other stacking options today, so you’re betting on ceiling by rostering New York.
With that said, the shot at ceiling is certainly there against Michael Wacha ($8,000), whose 2.70 ERA is hiding underlying numbers in the low fours. Given the salary dynamics and the fact that Kauffman Stadium is a bottom-five home-run park, I’m not going out of my way to force the Yankees into lineups, but if you have the salary, they’re obviously a good choice, with a bit of “pay up to be contrarian” to them outside of Judge.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jackson Chourio OF ($4,900) Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Matthew Liberatore)
Probably my favorite use case for PlateIQ is the ability to identify “exceptions to the rule” from teams who are bad against a certain hand of pitcher. Often the field will overlook a team like Milwaukee, who has a bottom-five wRC+ against lefties, when they’re facing a southpaw, for good reason. However, that doesn’t mean every batter in the lineup struggles.
It’s pretty easy to spot the exception in the Brewers lineup:
Additionally, when the lefty in question is Matthew Liberatore ($6,000) with a 4.70 ERA, there’s a solid chance some of those red numbers from other Milwaukee bats improve today. I like the Brewers as a team stack given their price point, but at a bare minimum Chourio is a great play.
Bo Bichette SS ($4,200) New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds (Nick Lodolo)
The Mets are very similar to the Brewers today in that they struggle against lefties (87 wRC+, 21st in baseball) but have a soft matchup as well as a solid team total. Also like the Brewers, they have a specific hitter who gets a considerable boost against southpaws.
That would be Bichette, who comes into the week with an OPS more than 300 points higher against lefties than righties this season. His career splits aren’t nearly as wide but point in the same direction, with the OPS delta about 100 points since he broke into the majors. With Nick Lodolo ($7,500) also representing a very winnable matchup and Bichette’s price pulled down by his awful work against righties, he’s a steal today.
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Pictured: Jacob Misiorowski
Photo Credit: Imagn
