The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a four-game slate starting at 7:30 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Damian Lillard has been fantastic recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +7.10 on FanDuel over his past 10 games. He’s averaged 1.29 fantasy points per minute over the past month, and no one at the PG position is projected to play more than his 37.7 minutes in our NBA Models. The Blazers have a solid matchup vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves, who rank just 24th in defensive efficiency on the season. Portland’s implied team total of 111.25 ranks second on the slate and represents an increase of more than six points compared to their season average (105.1).
Value
De’Aaron Fox has one of the best matchups of the day at the PG position, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.86 against the Brooklyn Nets. His playing time has been a little inconsistent recently, but he did play 33.5 minutes in his most recent contest. He’s averaged 0.86 fantasy points per minute over the past month, so he’s almost undoubtedly underpriced at $5,800 if he’s going to play that much moving forward.
Fast Break
Goran Dragic should be one of the highest-owned players of the day. He has a strong matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers, evidenced by his Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.93, and Miami’s implied team total of 109.5 points represents an increase of more than eight points compared to their season average (101.1). In addition to the nice matchup, the Heat will also be shorthanded in this contest, with both Wayne Ellington and Tyler Johnson ruled out with injuries. So far this season, Dragic has averaged 36.7 FanDuel points per 36 with Ellington, Johnson, and Dion Waiters off the floor:
Dragic is also one of the best values of the day on FanDuel, where his $6,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Jeff Teague has been a nice source of value recently, exceeding salary-based expectations in six straight games. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 27.1 percent in each of his past two, which is not really a surprise given the injury to Jimmy Butler. No one on the Timberwolves has seen a larger bump in usage or fantasy value than Teague with Butler off the court this season:
He’s a better value today on DraftKings, where his $7,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Shooting Guard
Studs
It’s a pretty rough slate for the high-priced shooting guards. D’Angelo Russell is the most-expensive option on FanDuel and is coming off a 45.0-point fantasy performance in his last game against the Cavaliers. He’s definitely an intriguing option moving forward given his increased minutes, but he has a brutal matchup today against the slow-paced Sacramento Kings. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.71 on FanDuel. C.J. McCollum has been a dreadful fantasy producer of late, posting an average Plus/Minus of -4.50 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. His price has only decreased by $200 over that time frame, however, so this isn’t exactly an opportunity to buy low on him either. Finally, Andrew Wiggins is the definition of an empty scorer. He’s averaged 22 points per game over his past three contests but has provided virtually nothing in the peripheral categories. As a result, it’s tough to trust him at an elevated salary even with Butler out of the lineup. Overall, it seems like a good day to pay down at the position.
Value
Dwyane Wade has been a usage machine of late, posting a usage rate of at least 34.8 percent in three of his past four games. He has the potential to be in another high-usage spot today: He’s averaged a usage rate of 38.1 percent with both Johnson and Ellington off the court since arriving in Miami:
He probably won’t see much of a bump in playing time – he’s currently projected for just 25 minutes – but he can still do a lot of damage given his average of 1.51 fantasy points per minute with both players off the court. He’s close to a must-play on FanDuel, where his $4,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Fast Break
The Kings feature a pair of intriguing shooting guards in Bogdan Bogdanovic and Buddy Hield. Both players have an excellent matchup vs. the Nets, with the Kings’ current implied team total of 105.75 representing an increase of almost seven points compared to their season average (99.0). Bogdanovic is the safer bet to play big minutes – he’s played 32.5 in each of his past two games – while Hield has been the superior per-minute producer (1.03 fantasy points per minute over the past month.) Both options are better values on FanDuel, where each has a Bargain Rating of at least 81 percent.
J.J. Redick and Marco Belinelli have the best matchups of the day at the position against the Cavaliers, with each owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of at least +4.93 on DraftKings. Redick looks like the better value on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 90 percent, while Belinelli could have some sneaky appeal on DraftKings. He’s priced down to just $3,800 and is projected for just 2.5 fewer minutes than Redick.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James has looked like his old self after he the front office jettisoned Isaiah Thomas to Los Angeles. He’s exceeded value in eight straight games on FanDuel and has increased his fantasy production to 1.54 fantasy points per minute over that time frame. His salary has finally caught up to his recent production – he’s currently priced at $12,200 on FanDuel and $11,800 on DraftKings – but he appears to be in a great spot against the 76ers. They’re playing at the fifth-fastest pace this season, and Cleveland’s resulting implied team total of 113.25 is the top mark on the slate. LeBron also has a solid individual matchup, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.46 on FanDuel. He leads all players with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel and should continue to serve as a building block for cash-game lineups.
Value
The Heat have a pair of SFs who could be intriguing on today’s slate. Josh Richardson is the obvious value play. He played just under 38 minutes in their last game and will likely carry a similar workload today. He’s averaged 0.92 fantasy points per minute over the past month, which gives him a nice floor at $6,100 on FanDuel and $5,800 on DraftKings. Justise Winslow is the wild card. He’s significantly cheaper than Richardson across the industry and could see a larger role than expected given the Heat’s injury situation.
Fast Break
Brandon Ingram could be a bit overlooked on this slate, but he’s been a fantastic fantasy option recently. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.74 on DraftKings over his past 10 games, highlighted by a 50.5-point fantasy performance in his most recent game against the Hawks. He doesn’t have a great matchup vs. the Heat, but he still has appeal on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Nemanja Bjelica is no longer cheap at $5,800 on FanDuel and $5,300 on DraftKings, but he still has upside given the injury to Butler. He’s averaged 0.84 fantasy points per minute over the past month and has played at least 32.5 minutes in each of his past two games.
Power Forward
Stud
As usual, the PF position is one of the weaker ones at the top. Ben Simmons stands out in his own tier on FanDuel, but he’s priced up to $9,500 despite bombing badly in his last start. It results in a Bargain Rating of just four percent, which makes it tough to justify paying up for him. His saving grace today could be his matchup vs. the Cavs, who have been a disaster defensively for the majority of the season. The 76ers’ implied team total of 110.25 ranks third on the slate, and Simmons has an elite Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.42 on DraftKings.
Value
Kelly Olynyk returned from injury in the Heat’s last game and ultimately played 25 minutes. He wasn’t very productive in those minutes, scoring just 17.1 FanDuel points, but the playing time is still encouraging for today’s contest against the Lakers. Olynyk has averaged 0.97 fantasy points per minute this season and has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.51. He’s a solid value on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Fast Break
Sticking with the Heat, both James Johnson and Bam Adebayo could be interesting targets for those looking to be contrarian in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). Both benefit from the same great matchup as Olynyk and neither figures to command nearly the same ownership. If for some reason Erik Spoelstra decides to bench Hassan Whiteside today — which seems to happen on an almost weekly basis — one of these two figures to be the primary beneficiary.
Larry Nance Jr. has been phenomenal recently on a per-minute basis, averaging 1.23 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He’s played approximately 26 minutes in two of his past three games and has a strong Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.45 against the 76ers on today’s slate.
Center
Studs
The top center option on today’s slate likely comes down to which site you’re playing. Karl-Anthony Towns stands out on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent. He’s been very reliable recently, posting a Consistency Rating of 88 percent, and he has a strong Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.82 against the Trail Blazers. He’s also seen a slight bump in playing time with Butler out of the lineup, seeing at least 37.5 minutes in each of his past two games.
On FanDuel, it’s hard to look past Hassan Whiteside given his Bargain Rating of 90 percent. Whiteside has averaged 1.34 fantasy points per minute over the past month but has been plagued by inconsistent minutes. He has seen 33.5 in two of his past three games, however, which provides some optimism for him going forward. He has an elite matchup against the Lakers, who have been destroyed by opposing centers all season.
Value
Jarrett Allen disappointed a bit in his last game, but his 28 minutes of playing time is encouraging for his fantasy prospects moving forward. He’s averaged 1.15 fantasy points per minute over the past month and has an awesome matchup today vs. the Sacramento Kings. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.20 on DraftKings, where Allen has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Fast Break
Julius Randle has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his past 10 games and each of his past four. He is finally playing big minutes for the Lakers, including a 37.5-minute performance two games ago against the Kings. He’s averaged 1.16 fantasy points per minute over the past month, which makes him appealing at his current salary across the industry.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Photo credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
