The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a nine-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Eric Bledsoe disappointed a bit in his first start without Giannis Antetkounmpo, but it wasn’t due to a lack of opportunities. He was plagued by shooting just 5 of 18 from the field, but the 18 field goal attempts were his most in a game in more than a month. He has a chance to build on those numbers today in a #RevengeGame against the Phoenix Suns. The Suns have been one of the best teams to target in NBA DFS all season and Bledsoe’s resulting Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.27 on FanDuel is one of the top marks at the position.
Bledsoe’s salary has increased to over $8,000 across the industry and the Bucks don’t figure to be as short handed as they were in their last game. Malcolm Brogdon is expected to rejoin the team and his presence could have an impact on Bledsoe. Bledsoe has still seen an average increase in usage of roughly 3.5 percent with just Giannis off the court this season, but that has only translated to an average of 33.02 FanDuel points per 36 minutes:
He’s going to need to do more than that today to return value at his current salary.
Value
Kris Dunn is going through the NBA’s concussion protocol at the moment, which makes him unlikely to play today for the Chicago Bulls. That should result in big minutes for Jerian Grant in one of the best spots of the day against the New Orleans Pelicans. Facing the Pelicans rewards Grant, who has averaged 0.86 fantasy points per minute over the past month, with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.49. He’s especially appealing on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Fast Break
Are the Jazz becoming an offensive juggernaut? Probably not, but they have scored at least 117 points in each of their last three games. Ricky Rubio has exceeded salary-based expectations in all three of those games and is in a solid spot to make it four in a row today against the Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league this season against opposing PGs, giving Rubio an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.88 on DraftKings. The Jazz will also be without Rodney Hood for today’s contest. Rubio has seen a usage bump of 1.3 percent and averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute with Hood off the court this season:
He’s currently projected for over 30 minutes of playing time in our NBA Models, which would make him a strong value at his current price tag.
Jrue Holiday has been a nice source of value recently on DraftKings, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.54 over his last 10 games:
His salary has actually decreased by $100 over that time frame and his current $7,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent. He has a strong matchup today with the Bulls, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.61.
Shooting Guard
Studs
James Harden was supposed to be limited to 30 minutes in his last contest, but that went out the window in an exciting win against the Warriors on Saturday night. He probably still won’t play more than 35 minutes in today’s contest against the Heat, but that should still give him a chance to return value at his reduced salary across the industry. He’s averaged a slate-high 1.57 DraftKings points per minute on the season.
Khris Middleton was the biggest beneficiary of Giannis’ absence in the Bucks last game, recording a triple-double in over 40 minutes of playing time. The playing time doesn’t seem like a fluke – he’s played over 40 minutes now in three straight games – and his usage rate of 27.2 percent was actually lower than what might have been expected in that contest. So far this season, he’s averaged a usage rate of 34.3 percent with Giannis off the court:
He’s a better value today on FanDuel, where his $8,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81 percent.
Value
Zach LaVine is being eased into the rotation for the Chicago Bulls, playing less than 20 minutes in each of his first four games. He was expected to play 24 minutes in his last game, but wound up sitting in the fourth quarter in a game that the Bulls would win comfortably. He can be expected to approach the 24 minute threshold in today’s game, which would make him an appealing option on FanDuel given his average of 1.09 fantasy points per minute. He also has an enticing matchup against the Pelicans, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.66.
Fast Break
Malcolm Brogdon may actually be the best value of the Bucks players today on DraftKings. He’s seen a usage bump of 3.1 percent with Giannis off the court this season, which he’s translated into an average of 29.38 DraftKings points per 36 minutes. Unlike Bledsoe and Middleton, Brogdon’s salary remains very affordable at $5,000 since he missed the last game. He has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent and an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.15 on DraftKings against the Phoenix Suns.
Donovan Mitchell has unsurprisingly led the Jazz in usage this season with Hood off the court, resulting in an average of 37.56 DraftKings points per 36 minutes:
He has an outstanding matchup against the Atlanta Hawks, giving him as much upside as anyone on today’s slate.
Small Forward
Stud
TJ Warren has been a solid contributor for the Suns all season, averaging 0.98 fantasy points per minute on FanDuel. He looks like a potential value at the moment as well, with his current $7,000 salary representing a decrease of nearly $1,000 over the past month. The decrease came as no fault of his own, but rather because of an injury that held him out of the lineup for a full week. He showed no ill effects in his first game back, scoring 38.1 fantasy points in over 34 minutes of playing time.
Value
Jimmy Butler is currently questionable for today’s contest after sitting out on Saturday and his absence would increase the value of a guy like Andrew Wiggins. Wiggins has led the team with a usage rate of 28.5 percent with Butler off the court this season and he’s converted that usage into an average of 31.58 DraftKings points per 36 minutes:
Wiggins scored 38.25 fantasy points on Saturday with Butler out of the lineup against a really good Raptors defense. Today’s matchup with the Clippers is much less daunting, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.48.
Nemanja Bjelica will likely enter the starting lineup if Butler can’t go. He’s been a solid source of value in the three games Butler has missed so far this season:
Priced at or near the minimum across the industry, he figures to be one of the highest owned value options of the day.
Fast Break
Josh Richardson continues to get the job done for the Miami Heat:
He’s posted a perfect 100 percent Consistency Rating over his past 13 games on FanDuel, but remains affordable at just $6,300. He also has a strong matchup today with the Houston Rockets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.26. The fact that Goran Dragic and Tyler Johnson are both unlikely to play will likely result in some minutes at PG for Richardson as well.
Denzel Valentine will likely run some backup PG today in addition to his usual minutes on the wing. He’s averaged 0.83 fantasy points per minute over the past month, so any additional playing time could lead to a big day. His $4,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent on FanDuel.
Power Forward
Stud
The Pelicans have an implied team total of 117 points today against the Chicago Bulls, which leads the slate by a pretty significant margin. That’s a large number to see for anyone outside of Golden State, so it’s not a huge shock that Anthony Davis has never played in a game with an implied team total this high. That said, Davis has played in seven games where the Pelicans have been implied for 114-116 points and he has historically smashed in those contests:
He’s a better value today on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Value
The injury situation in Memphis doesn’t appear to be getting any better. They currently have seven players on the injury report for today’s contest: JaMychal Green, James Ennis, and Chandler Parsons have already been ruled out, Jarrel Martin, Dillon Brooks, and Mario Chalmers are questionable, and Andrew Harrison is probable. The guy of most interest is probably Martin, who has exceeded salary-based expectations in three straight games and played 35 minutes in his last contest against the Pelicans. He will likely log big minutes again if he’s active with Green already ruled out, which makes him very appealing at just $4,000 on FanDuel. He also has a strong matchup with the 76ers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.63.
Fast Break
While Rudy Gobert returning to the lineup certainly hasn’t helped Derrick Favors, it really hasn’t hurt him much either. He still played at least 27 minutes in both games with Gobert back in the lineup, which provides some optimism for Favors’ fantasy value moving forward. He’s in an excellent spot today against the Atlanta Hawks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.93 on DraftKings.
Dario Saric has seen has salary come up a bit recently, but it still may be too low for his current role with the 76ers. His floor spacing ability is extremely important for Philly with JJ Redick currently sidelined and Saric has scored at least 30 FanDuel points in back-to-back games. He has a pretty brutal matchup today with the Memphis Grizzlies, who are playing at the slowest pace in the league this season.
Center
Studs
Similarly to Davis, DeMarcus Cousins has never been in a spot where his team has been implied for as many points as they are today against the Bulls. He has historically done well, however, when his team has been implied for at least 114 points:
He looks like the preferred stud option on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
On FanDuel, that designation likely belongs to Karl-Anthony Towns, who would be in one of the best spots of the day if Butler were to sit. So far this season, Towns has averaged over 45 FanDuel points per 36 minutes with Butler off the court:
He also has a dream matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers, who have been one of the worst teams all season at defending the center position. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.02 on FanDuel, where Towns leads all high priced centers with a Bargain Rating of 81 percent.
Value
Robin Lopez could be asked to play more minutes than usual today to combat the size of the Pelicans, which would obviously be a good thing for his fantasy value. He doesn’t need a ton of minutes to pay off his current $4,400 salary on FanDuel given his average of 0.85 fantasy points per minute over the past month. The Pelicans have also struggled with opposing centers this season, giving Lopez an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.67 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Dwight Howard has been priced up to $8,100 on DraftKings after a strong stretch of play recently, but it still results in a Bargain Rating of 99 percent. He also has one of the top matchups of the day against the Sacramento Kings, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.60.
Howard isn’t the only center that seems like a great deal on DraftKings. As usual, there’s a whole slew of talented big men with a Bargain Rating of at least 90 percent:
Rudy Gobert could be intriguing for cash games given his elite matchup with the Hawks, while Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic figure to have minimal ownership despite their big upside.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Photo Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports
