The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a seven-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
PG is thin at the top today, with only three players possessing salaries of $6,500 or greater. The only one who has anything resembling a good matchup is Goran Dragic, who owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.22 against the Brooklyn Nets. While that’s a really strong number to begin with, it might actually undersell how good a matchup this can be. D’Angelo Russell is expected to make his return today for the Brooklyn Nets, who have played approximately eight possessions faster with him on the floor this season:
The Nets played 8.0 possessions/48 faster with Russell on the floor this year. Miami/Brooklyn total currently at 207.5 https://t.co/G6RMU0vNP0
— Bryan Mears (@bryan_mears) January 19, 2018
To put that in perspective, the difference between the fastest (Lakers) and slowest teams (Memphis) this season is 7.6 possessions per game. Essentially, when Russell has been on the floor for Brooklyn, they play at the fastest pace in the league and it’s not all that close.
Value
Unfortunately, the position doesn’t get any more appealing today in the value department. One guy who could draw some interest is Tyler Ennis. The Lakers have the potential to be pretty shorthanded, with Lonzo Ball and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope expected to sit and Brandon Ingram currently questionable. Ennis has averaged 0.88 fantasy points per minute over the past month, so any additional playing time could make him an excellent value at just $3,800 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
The Pacers have one of the best matchups of the day at the position, but the PG situation is in a bit of flux for them at the moment. Darren Collison is still the starter and has averaged a solid 0.86 fantasy points per minute over the past month, but he’s only cracked the 28 minute barrier in two of his last nine games. Corey Joseph has been the better fantasy asset at his current salary over the past 10 games, averaging a Plus/Minus of +2.31 over that time frame. The fact that Collison played 36 minutes yesterday on the front end of a back-to-back only complicates the situation today, but both options have appeal against the Lakers.
Shooting Guard
Stud
While every NBA team faces injuries, it’s a little ridiculous what the Grizzlies are going through at the moment. It’s almost easier to list the players who are playing instead of hurt/sick:
- Mike Conley (Achilles) – out
- James Ennis (calf) – out
- Chandler Parsons (knee) – out
- Brandon Wright (illness) – doubtful
- Andrew Harrison (shoulder) – questionable
- Marc Gasol (illness) – probable
All of these players being potentially sidelined could result in a massive workload for Tyreke Evans. So far this season, Evans has commanded a usage rate of 31 percent and averaged 42.25 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with all of the above players except Gasol off the court:
Evans has also played really well of late, averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.58 over his last 10 games. The one downside for Evans is that this game between the Grizzlies and Kings should be really slow as both teams rank in the bottom five in pace this season.
Value
Jamal Murray is questionable today with a concussion. If he can’t go, look for Will Barton to draw the start at the PG position. He thrived in his first start for Murray, scoring 39.0 DraftKings points against the Clippers, and today’s matchup with the Suns profiles as an even better spot. Barton leads all SG-eligible players on DraftKings with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.15, and the Nuggets’ implied team total of 113.75 is first on the slate by a pretty significant margin. He’s going to be tough to avoid on DraftKings regardless of Murray’s status, where his $6,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Fast Break
Jordan Clarkson is another interesting name to consider for the Lakers given all their injuries. His usage rate of 27.3 percent leads the team this season and he’s averaged a very impressive 0.94 fantasy points per minute over the past month on FanDuel. The big concern with him all year has been minutes, but Luke Walton may have no choice but to play him today.
Victor Oladipo has been a bit of a disappointment recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of -1.56 over his last 10 games on FanDuel, but today’s contest against the Lakers could be a prime spot for him to get right. The Pacers’ implied team total of 108 points ranks second on today’s slate. The Lakers have been a disaster defensively with Ball off the court this season as their defensive efficiency of 114.6 would be the worst mark in the league by a mile.
Small Forward
Stud
T.J. Warren will return for Phoenix after missing the last two games with a back injury. His matchup with the Nuggets is tough – he has an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.09 on FanDuel – but he does lead the position with 12 Pro Trends. Historically, SFs with a comparable number of Pro Trends and salary ($6,700) have been strong investments:
He’s been one of the more reliable options at the position recently, owning a Consistency Rating of 88 percent over the past month.
Value
Wilson Chandler is another member of the Nuggets who would potentially stand to benefit from the absence of Murray. His usage rate has fallen off a cliff this season – he currently ranks just 12th on the team – but he’s made up for it at times with sheer volume. He’s played at least 33 minutes in each of his last two games. It would be tough for him not to return value at $4,100 on DraftKings if he plays that much again today.
Fast Break
Josh Richardson has been among the best values at the position recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +4.30 on FanDuel over his last 10 games:
He has seen a slight decrease in playing time with the return of Justise Winslow, but his current minute projection of 34.3 still ranks second among SFs on today’s slate. He’s a better value today on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Power Forward
Stud
Kawhi Leonard has been shut down for the foreseeable future, which means that the Spurs are once again LaMarcus Aldridge’s team. He’s been a huge factor for them all season, averaging roughly 42 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with Leonard off the floor:
That said, his matchup today with the Raptors is pretty unappealing for fantasy purposes. Both teams rank in the top six for defensive efficiency on the year. The Spurs’ implied team total of 100.0 points is the third lowest mark on the slate.
Value
Like the rest of his Miami teammates, James Johnson has a wonderful matchup today with the Brooklyn Nets. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.68 on FanDuel, where he’s a slightly better value on today’s slate. He probably won’t play more than 30 minutes, but he may not need to, given his current salary ($5,600) and recent production (0.95 fantasy points per minute).
Fast Break
Myles Turner remains out for the Pacers, which means that Domantas Sabonis and Thaddeus Young should both continue to play all the minutes they can handle. Sabonis will start at center and has arguably the higher ceiling of the two given his average of 1.04 fantasy points per minute over the past month. Young, however, has been the safer option recently, exceeding salary-based expectations on DraftKings in five of his last six games. Both options look like strong plays against a Lakers frontcourt that has hemorrhaged fantasy points to opposing big men all season.
Skal Labissiere is currently questionable for today’s contest, and his absence would make Zach Randolph pretty intriguing. Z-Bo has seen his minutes wane over the past month or so, which makes sense given that the Kings have a lot of talented young big men who they need to develop. Randolph can still get it done in his old age, however, evidenced by an average of 1.02 fantasy points per minute over the past month on DraftKings. Any additional minutes for Randolph could make him a solid value in a #RevengeGame against the Memphis Grizzlies.
Center
Studs
Center is easily the most loaded position on today’s slate, with four players owning salaries of at least $8,700 on FanDuel. These centers are also in pretty good spots for the most part, so paying up at the position definitely seems like it will be the default strategy for most on today’s slate.
Let’s start with Andre Drummond. He’s been rock solid recently, exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games. The only exceptions for him have come in horrid matchups – vs. the Hornets and at the 76ers – and today’s matchup against the Wizards is far from horrid. He went off for 56.9 FanDuel points against them in their most recent matchup and has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.19.
The option with the highest upside might be Hassan Whiteside, who’s coming off a game with 59.6 FanDuel points on Wednesday against the Bucks. He has the best Opponent Plus/Minus of the group at +5.81, and his average of 1.45 fantasy points per minute over the past month is the highest at the position. The big concern with Whiteside is just how many minutes he’ll play as he’s only broken the 30 minute barrier once in his past 13 games. Prior to his big game on Wednesday, he was benched for his effort on the defensive end of the court. There’s always risk involved with Whiteside, which makes him more suited for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) than cash games.
The other two high priced options are Nikola Jokic and Marc Gasol. Jokic might seem appealing given the Nuggets high implied team total, but the Suns have actually been pretty effective against centers thanks to the defensive presence of Tyson Chandler. Gasol has been the worst of the group by far on a per-minute basis recently, but his matchup against the Kings could make him an appealing contrarian option for GPPs.
Value
Speaking of Chandler, he’s been a reliable source of production for those looking to spend down at the position recently. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 90 percent over the past month, yet his salary has actually decreased by $500 on FanDuel over that time frame.
Fast Break
Aldridge isn’t the only Spurs big man who should see a boost with Leonard sidelined. Pau Gasol has actually seen the largest boost in value with Leonard off the floor this season, averaging 39.73 DraftKings points per 36 minutes:
Of course, he’ll never see that much playing time in a game, but he should still have a chance to pay off his current salary if he can approach the 30 minute mark today. He’s one of the best values of the day on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Good luck!
Photo via Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
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