The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a six-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Eric Bledsoe looks to be in one of the best spots of the day at the PG position. The Bucks are taking on the Philadelphia 76ers, who have played at the third fastest pace this season. It results in a pace differential (paceD) of +4.5 for the Milwaukee players and their resulting implied team total of 106.75 ranks third on today’s slate. Philadelphia has also struggled with the PG position this season, giving Bledsoe an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.17 on FanDuel.
Value
Mario Chalmers stepped up for the shorthanded Grizzlies on Friday, playing 33 minutes and scoring 42.8 FanDuel points. They have the potential to be undermanned yet again today, with Tyreke Evans and Deyonta Davis both questionable and JaMychal Green, Chandler Parsons, and James Ennis already ruled out. The Evans injury in particular could be huge for Chalmers: He’s averaged 31.07 FanDuel points per 36 minutes with Evans and the rest of the injured Grizzlies off the floor this season:
Chalmers could have some value even if Evans does play. He has an elite matchup against the Phoenix Suns, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.84 on FanDuel. The Grizzlies’ implied team total of 106.75 represents an increase of over seven points when compared to their season average (99.4). He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games and remains extremely affordable on FanDuel, where his current $3,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Fast Break
Dennis Smith Jr. has a brutal matchup today against the Miami Heat, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.39 on DraftKings. Despite that, he might just be too cheap on the moment on DraftKings at $6,000. He’s played at least 30 minutes in straight games and has averaged 1.07 fantasy points per minute over the past month. The Mavs could also be without JJ Barea and Devin Harris, who are both currently questionable for today’s contest. Smith has seen the third largest bump in production with both players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 36.55 DraftKings points per 36 minutes:
The best matchup at the position belongs to Jeff Teague, who has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.61 on FanDuel against the Atlanta Hawks. Minnesota also leads the slate with an implied team total of 110.75 points, which should make him one of the highest owned players at the position.
Shooting Guard
Studs
The top of the SG position is much more appealing today on FanDuel, where each of the three priciest options has a Bargain Rating of at least 75 percent. Unfortunately, all three have question marks on today’s slate.
Victor Oladipo has been a major disappointment in his last 10 games:
Oladipo has a tough individual matchup against the Charlotte Hornets, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.18. That said, the Pacers’ implied team total of 108.25 does rank second on today’s slate and Oladipo has seen a salary decrease of $600 on FanDuel for today’s contest.
The other two options are Tyreke Evans and Devin Booker, but both are currently questionable for today’s contest. If Evans suits up, he has the best matchup of the day against Phoenix. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.54 is the top mark among SGs on today’s slate, which makes him appealing if he’s not on any sort of minute restriction. Booker’s matchup against Memphis isn’t as appealing, but he leads all SGs with 11 Pro Trends and a Bargain Rating of 98 percent on FanDuel.
Value
The Heat are another team that have been devastated by injuries recently. Wayne Ellington has been one of the primary beneficiaries, playing at least 31 minutes in 13 of his last 14 games. He’s been solid on a per-minute basis, averaging 0.71 FanDuel points, and his salary has actually decreased by $700 on FanDuel over that time frame. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games.
Fast Break
Will Barton continues to play huge minutes after moving into the Nuggets’ starting lineup, but the fantasy production has yet to come. He’s failed to return value in each of his last four games and his fantasy production has dipped from 0.94 fantasy points per minute on the season to 0.84 over the past month. Barton figures to eventually be a value if he continues to play this much. He’s historically averaged a solid Plus/Minus with a comparable salary and minute projection on DraftKings:
He’s a better value today on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Nicolas Batum could be intriguing on FanDuel, where his salary has decreased by $800 over the past month. He’s gone for at least 36.8 FanDuel points in two of his last five games, so he has the ceiling required for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) at just $5,500.
Small Forward
Stud
Things have been good so far for Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks under interim head coach Joe Prunty. They’ve won each of their last two games by comfortable margins and Giannis has exceeded-salary based expectations in both. Today’s matchup against the 76ers should be a good one for Giannis, evidenced by a position-high Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.07. Giannis has also thrived in games with a comparable paceD (4.5) over the past two seasons:
He should be pretty chalky, with no one on FanDuel projected for more ownership than Giannis in our NBA Models.
Value
If Booker doesn’t play, T.J. Warren will become one of the best value options of the day. Warren has seen a usage spike of 3.2 percent with Booker off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 35.62 DraftKings points per 36 minutes:
You could make a case that he’s underpriced on FanDuel even if Booker does play. His salary has decreased by $1,000 over the past month despite the fact that he’s posted a Consistency Rating of 88 percent over that time frame.
Fast Break
Harrison Barnes continues to be reliable but slightly unspectacular for NBA DFS purposes. He’s averaged 0.96 fantasy points per minute over the past month, which gives him a solid chance to return value at his current $6,100 salary on most nights. He could also see some additional offensive responsibilities if Barea does sit. Barnes posted a usage rate of over 30 percent in the Mavs last game without Barea.
Jimmy Butler didn’t really ease back into the lineup after returning from injury, playing over 35 minutes in a game the Wolves won by 14 points. That puts him on track to play big minutes today against the Atlanta Hawks, who have been the fifth worst team this season in terms of defensive efficiency.
Power Forward
Stud
Ben Simmons may finally have gotten over the rookie wall. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last three games and he’s played approximately 39 minutes in each of the 76ers’ last two competitive games. J.J. Redick remains sidelined, and Simmons has led the team with a usage increase of 2.1 percent with Redick off the court this season. He doesn’t have a great matchup with the Bucks, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.28, but he does have a Bargain Rating of 93 percent on FanDuel.
Value
The biggest beneficiary of the Barea injury could actually be Maxi Kleber, despite the fact that one is a PG and the other is a PF. He played a season high 34.5 minutes in the Mavs last game and has scored at least 25 fantasy points in back-to-back outings. He’s shown the ability to pile up defensive statistics, which increases his ceiling today against the Heat.
Fast Break
Speaking of the Heat, their frontcourt has one of the best matchups of the day against the Dallas Mavericks. They’ve been the worst rebounding team in the league this season, which gives James Johnson some appeal at $5,300 on FanDuel. He played 32 minutes in Miami’s most recent contest and has averaged 0.92 fantasy points per minute on the season.
On a per-minute basis, no one at the PF position has been better than John Collins over the past month. He rarely plays more than 24 minutes, but has shown the ability to put up a huge game with limited playing time recently.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid has been a disappointment recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of -4.14 on FanDuel over his last 10 games. That said, his matchup against the Bucks today could be just what the doctor ordered. Only Dallas has rebounded the ball at a worse rate than the Bucks this season, resulting in a massive +5.33 Opponent Plus/Minus for Embiid on FanDuel. His salary has also decreased by a solid amount over the past month, which gives him some additional upside on today’s slate.
Value
The Suns’ center situation has been difficult to figure out for the majority of the season. The one staple has been that Tyson Chandler does not play on the second leg of back-to-backs, which the Suns are facing today against the Memphis Grizzlies. Greg Monroe was out of the rotation for a long stretch, but he has reentered the lineup recently thanks to the injury to Alex Len. Len is currently questionable for today’s contest, which means there’s a chance that Monroe will be the only active center for the Suns in today’s contest. That would make him extremely appealing across the industry, but especially on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Fast Break
Normally there are a bunch of centers with strong Bargain Ratings on DraftKing. Both Nikola Jokic and Dwight Howard fit that description on today’s slate. Jokic is a bit of an enigma in that it seems like he only wants to play about half of the time, but when he’s motivated he can destroy everything in his path. That kind of mentality makes him better suited for GPPs. Howard, meanwhile, has been an absolute monster of late, posting a Plus/Minus of at least +7.18 in each of his last seven contests. He has an exploitable matchup today with the Indiana Pacers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.66. Both options have a Bargain Rating of 98 percent, which makes them appealing pivots from the potentially chalky Embiid.
Hassan Whiteside is potentially the must frustrating player to roster in all of NBA DFS. He will occasionally get benched by head coach Erik Spolestra and has a tendency to loaf through games. Even so, his upside is so tantalizing that he’s tough to ignore at just $7,900 on FanDuel. He’s shown the ability to put up huge fantasy numbers in limited playing time, and the Mavs represent one of the best matchups possible for centers.
Good luck!
Photo via Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
