The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s main slate differs depending on which site you’re playing on: FanDuel features a six-game slate starting at 6:00 pm ET, while DraftKings features a four-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Today’s slate is a little light on top-end PGs, with only three players owning a salary above $6,800 on FanDuel. One of those players is Kemba Walker. He has a tough matchup with the Raptors, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.08. That said, he still leads all PGs with 13 Pro Trends, and players with a comparable number of Pro Trends and salary ($7,900) have historically been solid investments:
Value
Dennis Smith Jr. is in one of the best spots of the day against the New Orleans Pelicans. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.76 on FanDuel, but that still might undersell how good of a matchup this is. The Pelicans have played at a blistering pace recently, averaging 105.1 possessions per game over their last six games. Smith Jr. has played at least 34 minutes in each of his last two games and has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent on FanDuel.
Fast Break
On the other side of the same matchup, Rajon Rondo has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent on DraftKings. He’s scored at least 44.5 DraftKings points in two of his last three games thanks in no small part to his recent increase in playing time. He’s cracked the 32-minute barrier in each of his last three games and has averaged 1.10 fantasy points per minute over the past month. His matchup with the Mavs is also a good one, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.10.
Today’s slate could be a nice time to buy low on Tomas Satoransky. He’s failed to return value in each of his last three games but is still routinely playing 33-plus minutes per game. His salary has decreased by more than $1,000 on FanDuel over that time frame, and he’s averaged 0.90 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Anthony Davis has deservedly gotten a ton of praise for his recent play, but Jrue Holiday has been almost as important to the Pelicans’ recent success. He’s been awesome over his last seven games in particular, posting an average Plus/Minus of +10.32 on FanDuel. He’s obviously been a huge beneficiary of the injury to DeMarcus Cousins, averaging over 39 FanDuel points per game in 13 games without the star big man:
His salary has actually decreased by $700 on FanDuel over his last three games despite his awesome production, giving him a Bargain Rating of 93 percent for today’s contest with the Mavericks. His 13 Pro Trends are tied with Walker’s total for the most on the slate regardless of position.
Value
The Kings’ implied team total of 105.5 on today’s slate may not jump off the page, but it does represent an increase of over six points when compared to their seasonal average (99.2). They have an awesome matchup with the New York Knicks, who have allowed a putrid 116.2 points per 100 possessions over their last 10 games. That puts both Bogdan Bogdanovic and Buddy Hield in play on today’s slate. Bogdanovic has been the more consistent option recently and is the preferred option on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 97 percent. Hield has the higher upside given his superior average of 0.97 fantasy points per minute, and he’s a slightly better value on DraftKings at $5,500.
Fast Break
Lou Williams has had a fantastic season for the Los Angeles Clippers and is in the midst of a good stretch. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 90 percent on DraftKings, yet his salary has decreased by $600 over that time frame. His current $7,700 salary gives him a Bargain Rating of 86 percent, and the Clippers have one of the best matchups of the day against the Brooklyn Nets. They lead the slate with an implied team total of 116.75 points, which represents an increase of more than seven points when compared to their seasonal average (108.9).
Bradley Beal has a tough individual matchup today against Victor Oladipo, who has graded out as the second-best defensive SG in the league per Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM). That said, Beal’s Bargain Rating of 97 percent is tied with Bogdanovic’s mark for the top at the position on FanDuel, which does give him some appeal despite the tough matchup.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo stands in his own tier at the position on today’s slate. He’s been playing all the minutes he can handle recently, seeing at least 39 in five of his last six games. His salary has also decreased by $1,000 on DraftKings over the past month, and his current $10,000 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent. That could spell good things for Giannis on today’s slate: Comparably priced players with a similar monthly salary change and Bargain Rating have historically dominated on DraftKings:
He leads all players on DraftKings with 13 Pro Trends and has a solid Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.02 against the Philadelphia 76ers.
Value
Lance Stephenson has been awesome on a per-minute basis recently, averaging 0.97 fantasy points per minute over the past month on FanDuel. He’s also seen a nice bump in playing time of late, hitting the 25.5-minute threshold in three of his last four games. He remains very affordable at just $4,800 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Fast Break
Otto Porter has flown somewhat under the radar since the injury to John Wall, but he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.99 over his last 10 games on FanDuel. He’s seen a team-high usage bump of 3.1 percent with Wall off the court this season, resulting in an average of 35.88 fantasy points per 36 minutes:
He’s a better value today on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Harrison Barnes has the best matchup of the day against the New Orleans Pelicans, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.49 on FanDuel. He’s currently priced at a reasonable $6,200, which represents a decrease of $500 over the past month. He has returned value in each of his last three games and could see a few additional minutes if Wesley Matthews is unable to play (currently questionable).
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis has basically rewritten the fantasy record books recently, going for at least 81.5 FanDuel points in four of his last seven games. He’s done it by dominating in all facets, providing elite production in virtually every category across the board. He stumbled a bit in his most recent matchup, but that came against the elite defense of the San Antonio Spurs. He should have a much easier go of it today against the Dallas Mavericks, who rank just 20th in defensive efficiency and dead last in team rebound rate this season. Those factors combine to give Davis an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.80 on DraftKings, where he also has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent. He’s the most expensive player on the slate by a pretty significant margin, but it’s hard to argue that he’s not worth every penny.
Value
It’s tough to trust Markieff Morris fully, but he has played at least 31.5 minutes in each of his last three games. Morris has been effective recently, averaging 0.96 fantasy points per minute, so it’s not surprising that he exceeded value in all three of those games. As long as the playing time continues to be there, he looks like a solid value at just $5,600 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Only Davis has averaged more fantasy points per minute recently than Montrezl Harrell at the PF position. He’s averaged a stout 1.35 fantasy points per minute on FanDuel, which has helped him exceed value in six of his last seven games. He has an elite matchup today against the Brooklyn Nets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.66.
Nerlens Noel could be an intriguing punt option on DraftKings at the dead minimum on today’s slate. Head coach Rick Carlisle has said that he will look to play Noel down the stretch to help him rebuild his stock before heading to free agency, and he’s played approximately 15 minutes in each of the Mavs’ last two games. Noel is capable of producing greater than 1.0 fantasy points per minute given his proclivity for piling up defensive statistics, and he has a strong Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.92 against the Pelicans.
Center
Studs
Joel Embiid could be a bit overlooked today given the presence of Davis, but he’s been an elite producer in his own right of late. He’s averaged 1.61 fantasy points per minute over the past month, and he posted a usage rate of 41 percent in his most recent outing. He’s in an interesting spot today against the Milwaukee Bucks, who have been much better defensively of late but continue to get crushed on the glass. They have the second-worst team rebound rate in the league, and Embiid has dominated the Bucks in two previous career matchups:
DeAndre Jordan is also in an elite spot today against the Brooklyn Nets, evidenced by a massive Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.54. He’s increased his per-minute production to 1.28 fantasy points per minute over the past month and has posted a rebound rate of 27.7 percent since the Clippers traded away Blake Griffin.
Value
The Nets may have found a winner with Jarrett Allen. The 22nd pick in last year’s draft has averaged 1.13 fantasy points per minute over the past month and is coming off 34 minutes in his most recent game against the Sacramento Kings. He could continue to see a similar workload moving forward with the Nets playing for the future, and he has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.44 against the Los Angeles Clippers.
Fast Break
Enes Kanter saw 30 minutes in his last game after not cracking 23 in each of the three prior. He could be a nice value on FanDuel if he gets a similar workload today: The Kings have been awful against opposing centers all season, and Kanter has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Photo credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports
