The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a four-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Today’s slate is a little light on elite PG talent but makes up for it with some excellent matchups. No one has a better matchup at the position than Jeff Teague against the Orlando Magic. The Magic have allowed the highest average Plus/Minus to opposing PGs this season, giving Teague a ridiculous Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.25 on DraftKings.
Teague has also played well of late, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.19 over his past 10 games. His salary has actually decreased by $600 on DraftKings over that time frame, and his current $6,400 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Damian Lillard is another PG in a wonderful spot today against the Phoenix Suns. The Suns are playing at the third-fastest pace this season, resulting in a pace differential (paceD) of +3.8 for the Blazers’ players. Lillard has historically done quite well in comparable pace-up spots:
The Blazers have the highest implied team total on the slate at 113.75 points, and Lillard owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.96 on FanDuel.
Value
The Mavericks have finally unleashed Dennis Smith Jr., playing him at least 31 minutes in three straight games. He’s played well over the past month, averaging 0.97 FanDuel points per minute, so he can potentially do a lot of damage at $6,500 with some extended playing time. He’s also in the top pace-up spot of the day against the Denver Nuggets, resulting in a paceD of +6.5.
Fast Break
Teague and Lillard are far from the only PGs with great matchups today: Seven PGs projected for at least 20 minutes of playing time have Opponent Plus/Minus marks of +2.76 or greater on DraftKings:
Jamal Murray gets to take on the Mavericks, who have been almost as bad as the Magic against PGs this season. He’s particularly appealing on DraftKings, where he has a position-high Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
On the other hand, Kyrie Irving makes a lot of sense on FanDuel. He leads all PGs with 11 Pro Trends and has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Devin Booker has been solid of late on FanDuel, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.96 over his past 10 games:
He remains underpriced on FanDuel despite the awesome production, owning a Bargain Rating of 86 percent. He leads all players with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel and will also be without some of his top running mates in T.J. Warren and Marquese Chriss. Booker’s usage without those guys on the floor has been right around his season average, although those are just situations off the bench. With them out for the full game, he could be needed offensively more than usual.
The only real concern with Booker is his potential minutes, as the Suns are currently double-digit underdogs against the Blazers in Portland. Blowouts have not been uncommon this season for Phoenix, who have lost three of their past four games by at least 14 points and lost their first two meetings to the Blazers by a combined 55 points.
Value
Yogi Ferrell has SG-eligibility on DraftKings in addition to PG-eligibility across the industry, and he has the potential to be one of the chalkiest value options of the day. He’s played at least 33 minutes in three straight games, scoring at least 31.5 DraftKings points in all of them. He’s an especially strong value on DraftKings, where his $4,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Fast Break
Andrew Wiggins has really picked up his play of late, exceeding salary-based expectations in six of his past eight games. He has a strong matchup today versus the Magic, and his resulting Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.04 ranks third among SG-eligible players projected for at least 20 minutes on FanDuel.
C.J. McCollum has posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.18 on DraftKings, where he currently has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent. He’s another SG in a potentially great spot today, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.94 against Phoenix.
Small Forward
Stud
There aren’t a lot of studs to consider paying up for at the SF position on today’s slate, with only Jimmy Butler owning a salary higher than $6,800 on FanDuel. Butler figures to be a very popular option for that reason: No one on the slate has higher projected ownership than Butler on FanDuel. The fact that he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.47 against the Magic is icing on the cake, as is the Timberwolves’ implied team total of 112.75 points.
Value
Jaylen Brown is coming off a game with 35.8 FanDuel points against the 76ers and is in a great spot to return value today against the Pelicans. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.74 trails only Butler’s on FanDuel, where Brown currently has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent. The Celtics’ implied team total of 109.75 points isn’t quite as high as the Wolves’ or Blazers’ marks, but it would represent an increase of nearly seven points compared to their season average.
Fast Break
Evan Fournier has one of the worst matchups of the day against Butler and the Wolves, evidenced by his Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.13. That said, he might be too cheap to pass up on DraftKings at $5,100. Historically, Fournier has delivered solid value with a comparable salary and minute projection (32.5):
Warren is out for the Suns, and extra minutes could go to Josh Jackson, who has scored at least 33 DraftKings points in two straight games. He’s quite cheap across both sites and leads all SFs in Projected Plus/Minus.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis is coming off one of his biggest games of the season, scoring 83.75 DraftKings points in an overtime win against the Knicks. Unfortunately, things likely won’t come as easy for Davis today against the Boston Celtics. The Celtics have been one of the tougher teams all season against the PF position, evidenced by Davis’ Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.04 on FanDuel. The Celtics rank first in the league in defensive efficiency by a comfortable margin, and the Pelicans’ implied team total of 105.25 represents a decrease of nearly six points compared to their season average. Still, Brow might be too good a value to pass up on DraftKings, where his $10,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Value
Old man Dirk Nowitzki can still get it done at this stage of his career, averaging a Plus/Minus of +4.04 on FanDuel over his past 10 games. He likely won’t play more than 25 minutes – he’s currently projected for 23.4 in our NBA Models – but his average of 1.06 FanDuel points per minute over the past month trails only Davis’ on today’s slate. He’s been extremely reliable recently as well, posting a Consistency Rating of 92 percent over the past month.
Fast Break
Tom Thibodeau has eased up a bit on Taj Gibson’s ridiculous workload recently, playing him 34 minutes or less in nine straight games. That has coincided with a rise in playing time for Gorgui Dieng, who has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.94 on FanDuel over his past eight games. Dieng has averaged 0.91 FanDuel points per minute this season, so the concern with him has been a lack of playing time as opposed to a lack of fantasy efficiency. He makes sense for those looking to punt at the position in cash games, but he doesn’t really have the ceiling required for GPPs.
Dragan Bender eclipsed the 30-minute mark for the third straight game and will likely be forced into a big role for the Suns again today. He was dreadful in his last game, scoring just 3.0 FanDuel points on 0-7 shooting, but that could work to reduce his ownership for today’s contests.
Center
Studs
Center is one of the most loaded positions on today’s slate, with three players owning salaries of at least $9,500 on FanDuel.
We’ll start with DeMarcus Cousins, who is the priciest option on today’s slate across the industry. He has a slightly better individual matchup than Davis does against the Celtics, evidenced by his Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.88. His average of 1.5 DraftKings points per minute over the past month is the top mark among today’s options, and only Davis is projected to play more minutes than Cousins on today’s slate (38.5). He’s especially appealing on DraftKings, where his current $10,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Karl-Anthony Towns might be the preferred option on FanDuel, where his 75 percent Bargain Rating is significantly higher than the marks of the other elite options:
He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +1.31 against Orlando, but that probably undersells how good of a matchup this can potentially be. He’ll go against Bismack Biyombo, who currently ranks just 69th out of 73 centers in Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM).
Finally, Nikola Jokic is probably in the best individual spot of the three against the Mavericks. Dallas has been the worst rebounding team in the league this season, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.94 for Jokic on DraftKings. His results are typically more volatile than Cousins’ or Towns’ – he has a Consistency Rating of just 71 percent over the past month – which likely makes him best suited for GPPs.
Value
Mason Plumlee failed to exceed salary-based expectations for just the third time in his past 18 games on Monday against the Spurs. He has a much easier matchup today against the Mavericks, with his Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.78 ranking second among centers projected for at least 20 minutes.
Fast Break
The best matchup of the day at the position belongs to Al Horford against the Pelicans. He’s also priced fairly on FanDuel, where his Bargain Rating of 90 percent makes him a bit of an anomaly at the position. Only Horford and Towns have better Bargain Ratings on FanDuel among centers priced at $4,000 or more.
Good luck!
Photo via Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
News Updates
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