NFL Week 6 features a Monday Night Football doubleheader starting at 5 p.m. ET.
The QB position is robust for a two-game slate. That said, it’s hard to argue against Patrick Mahomes as the top option.
He leads the position in projected points and ceiling in an excellent matchup against the Bills. The Bills’ pass defense has been atrocious to start the season, giving Mahomes an Opponent Plus/Minus of +9.0 on DraftKings.
The Chiefs are also currently implied for a slate-high 30.5 points. Mahomes has historically crushed with a comparable implied team total, posting an average Plus/Minus of +10.96 over 13 career games (per the Trends tool).
Andy Dalton is the cheapest QB on the slate by a considerable margin, but that doesn’t mean he’s a poor option. He’s taking over for the injured Dak Prescott, which gives him one of the best collections of weapons to throw to in the entire league. The Cowboys’ implied team total of 27.0 is also solid, and QBs with a comparable implied team total and salary have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.66. If we restrict the sample size to only include QBs playing at home, the average Plus/Minus increases to +1.99.
Kyler Murray can make a strong argument for the top QB spot on the slate. He’s taking on a Cowboys’ defense that has hemorrhaged points recently, allowing an average of 40 points per game over their past four contests. Murray also gives you more rushing upside than the other QBs on the slate given his average of 40 yards per game this season.
Josh Allen is one of the best QBs in fantasy, but he could be the forgotten man today. He has easily the worst matchup at the position vs. the Chiefs, who rank second in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA. QBs have also struggled this season vs. the Chiefs from a fantasy perspective, giving Allen an Opponent Plus/Minus of -4.4 on DraftKings.
Ezekiel Elliott should command massive ownership on today’s slate, particularly on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 96%. He has been solid to start the season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.02 over his first five games, but it still feels like he has room for improvement.
One area where he could see some progression is his number of carries. He’s logged fewer than 20 carries in each of his past three games, which is a bit low for Zeke. That could change with Dalton under center instead of Prescott.
Of course, the biggest detriment to his rushing volume has been the Cowboys’ defense. They have consistently put the Cowboys’ offense in a hole to start games, meaning that the team has had to abandon the run and focus on the pass. Zeke is capable of getting involved in the passing game, but he’s far from Alvin Kamara. He’s the type of back who you want getting 20 or more carries per game.
Is it officially time to panic with Kenyan Drake? It might be. His grip on the starting RB job in Arizona is loosening, especially with Chase Edmonds playing so well.
Still, why is he cheaper than Edmonds on DraftKings for tonight’s contest vs. the Cowboys? That doesn’t make much sense.
Drake still had a solid edge over Edmonds in terms of snaps last week, and Drake easily out-carried him 18 to three. Edmonds still has some value in his own right as a pass catcher, but Drake still appears to be the top guy in Arizona. Take advantage of this pricing mistake.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is another RB whose role is in flux. The Chiefs brought in Le’Veon Bell after he was released by the Jets, and he could definitely cut into CEH’s workload moving forward. That said, Bell is not eligible to play until Week 7, so CEH is still the Chiefs’ top option for tonight’s matchup vs. the Bills. That makes him a viable fantasy target.
Devin Singletary has been disappointing this season, and he even started to lose some playing time to T.J. Yeldon last week. Now that Zack Moss is healthy again, he has the potential to emerge as the starting RB for the Bills moving forward. Moss was a workhorse at the University of Utah, so he’s interesting at the absolute minimum on DraftKings.
There are plenty of top options to consider paying up for at the WR position, but Stefon Diggs stands out as the best of the bunch. He leads all WRs in projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel in our NFL Models, and he’s been very good in his first year with the Bills. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.95 through his first five games on DraftKings, and he’s coming off a whopping 16 targets in his last game.
Fellow WR John Brown was unable to suit up in that contest, and he’s currently listed as questionable for tonight’s matchup vs. the Chiefs. It would be hard to avoid Diggs if Brown is ultimately ruled out once again.
The Chiefs will be playing without Sammy Watkins today, which should open up more opportunities for the rest of the roster. Mecole Hardman stands out as one of the biggest potential beneficiaries. Hardman can absolutely fly – he ran a 4.33 40 at the NFL combine – and he’s averaged 2.98 fantasy points per target over the past month. The only thing that has kept his fantasy production down has been a lack of snaps, and that shouldn’t be as big of a concern with Watkins out of the lineup.
Demarcus Robinson could also be a viable option if you’re looking to go even cheaper with the Chiefs. He’s actually been on the field for a higher percentage of the Chiefs’ snaps than Hardman this season, and he should check in with significantly lower ownership.
Tyreek Hill and Amari Cooper both have the potential to be the highest scoring WR on the slate, so they are obviously in play today. Both players are also elite values on DraftKings: Cooper owns a Bargain Rating of 99%, Hill owns a Bargain Rating of 90%.
CeeDee Lamb has been impressive as a rookie, posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first five games on FanDuel. It remains to be seen if his production will take a hit with Dalton under center, but he’s simply too cheap at $6,400 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 96%.
The gap between Travis Kelce and everyone else at the position today is massive. His median projection on DraftKings is nearly 10 points higher than every other TE’s, and the gap is even more massive when looking at ceiling projections.
Kelce also benefits from one of the top matchups at the position. The Bills have struggled vs. TEs this season, ranking just 20th in DVOA vs. the position. As a result, Kelce owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.5 on DraftKings.
Locking Kelce in on FanDuel seems almost mandatory given his Bargain Rating of 96%, and he’s a very tough fade on DraftKings as well.
If you aren’t going to pay up for Kelce, it makes sense to go dumpster diving at the position. Dan Arnold is priced all the way down at $3,000 on DraftKings, and he posted a respectable four catches for 39 yards two weeks ago vs. the Panthers. He doesn’t play on a ton of snaps for the Cardinals, but he has gotten involved in the pass game when he’s on the field. He runs a route on approximately 67% of the Cardinals’ pass plays when on the field, which is not a bad number for a TE.
Dalton Schultz is the middle-ground option at TE today. He’s clearly not the same player as Kelce – very few are at the TE position – but he’s also a step up from guys like Arnold and Tyler Kroft. He played all but six snaps for the Cowboys’ last week vs. the Giants, and he has had at least six targets in three of his past four games. It’s hard to know how relevant those numbers are with a new QB, but he’s worth some consideration on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 96%.
Pictured above: Andy Dalton #14 of the Dallas Cowboys
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