The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Logan Webb (R) $9,700 San Francisco Giants (-170) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Friday’s main slate has 10 MLB matchups on the board for DraftKings contests, and of the 20 starting pitchers, Webb has the highest median, ceiling and floor projections. He has the highest strikeout prediction, and his team is the heaviest favorite on the slate (per the Vegas dashboard).
Webb gets a great matchup against the Angels, who have the lowest implied run total on the board. The Halos lead the majors with a 25.2% strikeout rate and have just a .102 ISO and .291 wOBA over the last 30 days. Especially in his favorable home ballpark, Webb should be in a great spot to shut them down again this Friday.
Before the break, had a pair of shaky outings against the Blue Jays and Rockies, but the 29-year-old ace bounced back in his last start, allowing just three runs on two hits in 6 2/3 innings against the Mariners in a no-decision.
Even though he’s only 5-7 on the season, his 3.54 FIP and 1.11 WHIP back up his 3.87 ERA, and he has 85 strikeouts in his 107 innings. His splits have been better at home than on the road, and he has averaged 16.2 DraftKings points per outing in his eight starts at Oracle Park.
In this fantasy-friendly home game against the Angels, Webb is a great stud to build around, especially with such a good chance at a win over a struggling Grayson Rodriguez.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Dustin May (R) $7,800 St. Louis Cardinals (-166) vs. Cincinnati Reds
May and the Cardinals are also heavy favorites in this divisional matchup against the Reds, and May brings a very high ceiling to the table. In the aggregate projections described below, he has the highest Plus/Minus projections of all 20 starting pitchers in play, and he’ll face a Reds lineup that’s struggling.
The Reds have the second-highest strikeout rate in the MLB behind only the Angels, and are hitting just .230 as a team, the second-lowest team average in the majors. Against righties like May, they have the lowest team wRC+, coming in at 15% below league average.
May has been very streaky this season, turning in some outstanding outings but also a few disastrous starts. He hasn’t faced the Reds yet this year, but he does have strong home splits, averaging 16.2 DraftKings points per game in his 10 outings at Busch Stadium.
He has shown impressive spike potential and had a dominant run late in May and in June with four straight starts of over 20 DraftKings points, including 46 DraftKings points in his top start of the year. More recently, he had 22.1 DraftKings points on July 6 in a home matchup against a tough Brewers lineup.
He has that kind of high upside against the Reds on Friday night and could be the best value on the slate. He has a good chance at a win against the Reds and Rhett Lowder ($6,200), who has an 8.27 road ERA on the year.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Joey Cantillo (L) $8,500 Cleveland Guardians (+118) at Tampa Bay Rays
The Guardians are in Tampa Bay for a tough matchup against the Rays, and on Friday night, they’ll give the ball to lefty Joey Cantillo. He’s shown a high ceiling but is a volatile play at this price. He has the highest Leverage of all pitchers on the board due to his very low ownership projection.
Cantillo has been inconsistent at times this season, which is why he’s best utilized in tournaments, but he has plenty of upside. In his last three road starts, he posted 26.4 DraftKings points against the Marlins, 19.8 DraftKings points against the Twins, and 35 DraftKings points against the Astros. He exceeded salary-based expectations in each of those outings by a significant margin and has gone over his salary-based expectations in six of his last seven starts overall.
His one letdown during that stretch was in his most recent matchup, which was against the Pirates just after the All-Star break. He’ll look to bounce back in this tough spot, and if he does, he will be a great value with the potential to differentiate your GPP build from the rest of the field.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by points projection, belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
The Twins are at home on Friday night in what should be a high-scoring matchup against the Athletics. They’ll face lefty Jacob Lopez ($6,000), who has been knocked around this season in 10 games. He is 4-4 with a 6.64 ERA. He has been a little better lately and has also been better on the road, but righties have hit .307 with a .400 wOBA against him on the season.
Austin Martin and Byron Buxton are a great 1-2 punch at the top of the lineup, with Martin’s bargain salary balancing out Buxton’s $6,000 price tag. Buxton is averaging 11.1 DraftKings points per game at home this season and has hit safely in five straight games. He had a quick stint on the IL over the All-Star break but is 4-for-11 in the three games since he returned. Ryan Jeffers is another pay-up play, but he comes in red hot after putting up 9.8 DraftKings points per game over his last nine games.
Josh Bell and Royce Lewis are affordable options with plenty of upside as well. The switch-hitting Bell has a higher average against lefties this year and brings good power at his price, and Lewis has been productive since returning to the majors after some time in Triple-A.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Heriberto Hernandez OF ($3,400) Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres (German Marquez)
In the aggregate projections, Hernandez has the top Projected Plus/Minus of all outfielders on the slate. He has multiple hits in three of his last four games with 5+ DraftKings points in four straight games.
Even though the team has lost nine straight, Hernandez has been one of the Marlins’ best hitters and still comes at an affordable salary under $3,500. He is 16-for-48 (.333) over his last 13 games with six doubles, four homers and a pair of stolen bases. In those 13 games, the 26-year-old righty has produced 9.8 FPTS per game.
He and the Fish should be in a good bounce-back spot at home against German Marquez and the Padres. It should be a nice get-right spot since Marquez has a 5.24 ERA and 6.51 FIP this season and has allowed 11 homers in nine starts. Here’s how he and the rest of the Marlins stack up at LoanDepot Park in our PlateIQ tool:
Alejandro Kirk ($2,900) Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox (Patrick Sandoval)
Kirk has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all catchers in the aggregate projections, and the veteran catcher is finding his rhythm after missing two months with a thumb injury.
Against the Rays over the four-game set to start the week, Kirk hit his third homer and went 4-for-11 (.364) with a total of 27 DraftKings points.
He gets a favorable matchup against lefty Patrick Sandoval and brings good value and a high ceiling at a shallow catcher spot.
Jake Cronenworth 1B/2B ($2,900) San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins (Ryan Gusto)
Cronenworth had a very rough start to the season, but he has been much more productive in July and is still a bargain as the Friars face Ryan Gusto in South Beach. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players at 2B and the second-highest at 1B on Friday night’s slate. If you want a star in either spot, Cronenworth can be a solid option in the other slot and save significant salary space.
While his season numbers are still underwhelming as a whole, he has hit .304 in his last 13 games with three doubles, three stolen bases, and 7.5 DraftKings points per game.
He’s projected to hit second in the lineup, putting him in a prime run production spot for the Padres as they look to continue the Marlins’ slide. At his bargain salary, Cronenworth can be a great way to fill either spot on the right side of the infield.
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Pictured: Logan Webb
Photo Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images
