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MLB Pro Model Stacks: Thursday 7/20

This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze MLB stacks in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.

Texas Rangers

With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. In the main slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Rangers:

The Rangers have the second-highest implied total on the slate with 5.0 runs (per our Vegas Dashboard). They are taking on Orioles lefty Wade Miley, who has the slate’s worst WHIP at 1.674 and the second-worst HR/9 at 1.328. The lefties in the stack have a slate-high Park Factor of 78 at Camden Yards, and Mike Napoli is crushing the ball with a recent batted ball distance of 267 feet, fly ball rate of 63 percent, and hard hit rate of 52 percent. He leads the slate with 12 Pro Trends, which (per our Trends tool) has historically resulted in a +2.31 Plus/Minus and 48.4 percent Consistency Rating. The Rangers will likely be chalky, but skipping the No. 2 batter in their order could reduce ownership, which Pro subscribers can review after lineup lock via our DFS Ownership Dashboard.

Los Angeles Dodgers

On FanDuel, one of the top four-man stacks in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Dodgers, who have an implied total of 4.8 runs, the third-highest mark on the slate:

Corey Seager and Justin Turner have been crushing the ball recently. Both have recent batted ball distances of 245 feet or more and identical exit velocities of 94 percent. Cody Bellinger has stack-high wOBA and ISO differentials of .063 and .091. Chris Taylor joins Turner as one of the 10 highest-rated players on the slate. The Dodgers will likely have elevated ownership given the small slate. This stack utilizes the top of the lineup (per our Lineups page), but one way to differentiate yourself in guaranteed prize pools could be to pivot off the projected leadoff hitter in Taylor and swap in Joc Pederson, who is projected to bat sixth. He has been dominant against right-handed pitchers with wOBA and ISO differentials of .172 and .201.

Detroit Tigers

We’ve recently incorporated FantasyDraft data and tools into our Models. After the Rangers, the top-rated six-man FantasyDraft stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Tigers:

The Tigers are taking on lefty Danny Duffy in Kansas City tonight. Nick Castellanos is the highest-rated player on the Model, and for good reason, as he has wOBA and ISO differentials of .059 and .181. Although the sample is small, Castellanos has crushed lefties this season with a +2.50 Plus/Minus. His recent Statcast data has also been excellent with a recent batted ball distance of 251 feet, exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 43 percent. Miguel Cabrera has not been hitting the ball well lately, but his stack-high 12-month .475 wOBA against left-handed pitchers is encouraging.

News Updates

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:

This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze MLB stacks in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.

Texas Rangers

With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. In the main slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Rangers:

The Rangers have the second-highest implied total on the slate with 5.0 runs (per our Vegas Dashboard). They are taking on Orioles lefty Wade Miley, who has the slate’s worst WHIP at 1.674 and the second-worst HR/9 at 1.328. The lefties in the stack have a slate-high Park Factor of 78 at Camden Yards, and Mike Napoli is crushing the ball with a recent batted ball distance of 267 feet, fly ball rate of 63 percent, and hard hit rate of 52 percent. He leads the slate with 12 Pro Trends, which (per our Trends tool) has historically resulted in a +2.31 Plus/Minus and 48.4 percent Consistency Rating. The Rangers will likely be chalky, but skipping the No. 2 batter in their order could reduce ownership, which Pro subscribers can review after lineup lock via our DFS Ownership Dashboard.

Los Angeles Dodgers

On FanDuel, one of the top four-man stacks in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Dodgers, who have an implied total of 4.8 runs, the third-highest mark on the slate:

Corey Seager and Justin Turner have been crushing the ball recently. Both have recent batted ball distances of 245 feet or more and identical exit velocities of 94 percent. Cody Bellinger has stack-high wOBA and ISO differentials of .063 and .091. Chris Taylor joins Turner as one of the 10 highest-rated players on the slate. The Dodgers will likely have elevated ownership given the small slate. This stack utilizes the top of the lineup (per our Lineups page), but one way to differentiate yourself in guaranteed prize pools could be to pivot off the projected leadoff hitter in Taylor and swap in Joc Pederson, who is projected to bat sixth. He has been dominant against right-handed pitchers with wOBA and ISO differentials of .172 and .201.

Detroit Tigers

We’ve recently incorporated FantasyDraft data and tools into our Models. After the Rangers, the top-rated six-man FantasyDraft stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Tigers:

The Tigers are taking on lefty Danny Duffy in Kansas City tonight. Nick Castellanos is the highest-rated player on the Model, and for good reason, as he has wOBA and ISO differentials of .059 and .181. Although the sample is small, Castellanos has crushed lefties this season with a +2.50 Plus/Minus. His recent Statcast data has also been excellent with a recent batted ball distance of 251 feet, exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 43 percent. Miguel Cabrera has not been hitting the ball well lately, but his stack-high 12-month .475 wOBA against left-handed pitchers is encouraging.

News Updates

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs: