The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Shohei Ohtani (R) $10,700 Los Angeles Dodgers (-400) vs. Colorado Rockies
In stark contrast to yesterday’s slate, where no pitcher was projecting above 18 or so DraftKings points, we have three options at the top with price tags around the $10,000 mark and median projections at or above 20 points. Of that group, the true standout is, of course, Ohtani.
That last sentence is true on nearly every slate on which Ohtani pitches. His sub-1.00 ERA has felt unsustainable for a while, but he’s managed to maintain that mark through eight starts and 49 total innings pitched, while also completing seven innings in two of his last three starts. His 28.4% strikeout rate is a bit short of his usual level but would be considered elite for nearly any other pitcher.
Where he really stands out today is in the matchup with the Rockies. They’re not the terrible offense they were last season (at least against righties), but they’re still pretty bad, ranking 28th in wRC+. They also have a top-10 strikeout rate, which helps Ohtani’s upside.
Plus, he has unprecedented Vegas data, with the Dodgers as -400 favorites and Colorado implied for less than three runs. He’ll be the most popular pitcher on the slate but is probably worth eating the chalk.
MLB DFS Value Pick
David Sandlin (R) $4,000 Chicago White Sox (-125) vs. Minnesota Twins
The White Sox announced yesterday that they were calling up David Sandlin for his MLB debut on Thursday. The 25-year-old has been lights out in the minors this season, with a 0.55 ERA and 35% strikeout rate through six starts between A+ ball and AAA. It’s encouraging that he was able to jump two levels and maintain similar production, but, of course, the big leagues are another animal entirely.
It’s also unclear exactly what his role is. MLB.com still lists Davis Martin as the starter, and Sandlin has thrown just 16.1 innings across those six starts, with his longest outing lasting four innings. We could see him as a pseudo-opener who goes through the order once, or he might join the action after somebody else takes care of the first inning or two.
However, at a $4,000 price point, none of that really matters. If he’s able to pick up a pair of strikeouts over two scoreless innings, he’s already paid off his salary, while also making it easy to roster Ohtani or any of the other pricey pitchers on the slate. The likeliest outcome is probably three innings, which could easily make him a GPP winner.
We have his median projection in the low double figures, which makes him the Pts/Sal leader by a wide margin. He’s currently not projecting for much ownership, but my guess is that this changes once official sources list him as the starter.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Jacob deGrom (R) $9,700 Texas Rangers (-163) vs. Houston Astros
deGrom has slightly better strikeout numbers than Ohtani at a price point $1,000 cheaper. He also has an ERA in the threes and a much tougher matchup with the Astros’ solid offense. He’s more of a “wide range of outcomes” play than he is a great option. Currently, he’s projecting for similar ownership to Ohtani, which would make him a pass for me, but if that drops after the Sandlin news gets digested, I’d be interested in him as a contrarian pivot over the reigning NL MVP.
Jose Soriano (R) $10,000 Los Angeles Angels (+105) at Detroit Tigers
The argument for Soriano is effectively identical to the one for deGrom, except he already comes with single-digit ownership projections. He has an ERA below 2.5, a strikeout rate of 28%, and a solid matchup against a Tigers team that ranks 24th in wRC+ against righties. I like rostering Soriano as an Ohtani pivot in larger GPPs, as his ownership likely lands even lower than we’re currently projecting.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the New York Yankees:
For the second day in a row, we have two star-studded rosters, the Dodgers and the Yankees, clearly ahead of every other lineup in terms of implied runs. Yesterday, both offenses put up 15(!) runs in their respective games, so there wasn’t really a wrong choice among them.
Today, the decision is a bit more clear. With Ohtani taking the mound and also hitting leadoff for the Dodgers, he’s ineligible to be rostered as a hitter. That means any Dodgers stacks are, by definition, missing their best offensive player.
The Yankees don’t have that problem, as Aaron Judge is obviously able to be selected. His 14 DraftKings points yesterday were somehow disappointing relative to the team’s production, but he was pulled early once the game got out of hand. New York is in another great spot against Noah Cameron ($7,300), and the fact that he’s a southpaw is a massive boost to Judge specifically.
Plus, with a minimum-priced pitching option, it’s not all that hard to afford this stack.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Max Muncy 3B ($4,800) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies (Tomoyuki Sugano)
Just because we can’t have Ohtani doesn’t mean we should fade the Dodgers entirely. Their 5.5-run implied total is the best on the slate and a full half-run better than the Yankees. Rockies pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano ($5,300) has been incredibly lucky this season, with an ERA in the threes but an xERA above seven.
I used PlateIQ to look for the best non-Ohtani option on the Dodgers, and Muncy was a fairly obvious choice:
It would be nice if he was a bit higher in the lineup — or a bit cheaper — but it’s possible to make it work, and the upside is clearly there.
Matt Olson 1B ($5,200) Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox (Connelly Early)
Braves-Red Sox is the standout weather game of the slate for offenses, with Weather Edge showing a 30% boost to home runs and a 13% boost to total scoring. That’s relative to the already offense-friendly park factors at Fenway, which is why this game stands out over the Mets contest that has similar weather but a park that ranks 14 spots lower for hitters.
I went back to PlateIQ looking to see if any Braves hitters stood out against the left-handed Connelly Early ($8,000) and was surprised with what I found:
The left-handed Olson clearly has no trouble in the same-side matchup against southpaws, counterintuitively giving him the best numbers on Atlanta tonight. Paired with his price tag, that should mean he’s also a contrarian option, so I’ll have some exposure to him on Wednesday’s slate.
Bo Bichette SS ($4,100) New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds (Andrew Abbott)
Of course, good weather in a lesser hitter’s park isn’t a reason to fade the Mets offense; it’s still an upgrade, especially against left-handed Andrew Abbott ($6,300), whose solid 3.97 ERA is hiding his terrible underlying numbers, with most of his ERA predictors around 5.00.
The reason to fade the Mets would be their terrible play this season, but Bichette is an exception – at least against lefties. His OPS is a pathetic .510 against right-handed pitching but jumps to .832 when he has the platoon edge, and his career numbers against lefties are even better. He’s also reasonably priced and fits neatly around the Yankees stack, making him a strong overall play.
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Pictured: Shohei Ohtani
Photo Credit: Imagn
