The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a five-game slate starting at 12:20 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Freddy Peralta ($8,800) Milwaukee Brewers (-125) at Cincinnati Reds
With early news breaking that the Tigers-Twins game had been postponed, we’re now down to effectively a four-game slate on Thursday afternoon. That of course limits the amount of pitching options available, forcing us to redefine our expectations for high-end pitching on the slate.
With that said, Peralta is still a solid option. He’s drastically underpriced for his recent numbers, having finished with a strikeout rate of at least 30% in four of the past five seasons. Last year his ERA was a strong 3.86, and he’s started 2024 at 3.09.
His price point is likely due to the difficult matchup. While the Reds are a roughly average offense, this game is at Great American Ball Park. That’s the toughest place to pitch outside of Colorado. Cincinnati has a total of 4.2 runs today — not horrible, but higher than we typically look to target.
Of course, this game is a serious risk to be postponed as well, so keep an eye on the MLB Weather Report from our friends at RotoGrinders. This one could easily turn into a three game slate.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Jon Gray ($6,500) Texas Rangers (-185) vs. Oakland A’s
From a matchup-and-stadium standpoint, Gray is in a similar spot as Peralta. Oakland has been just slightly worse offensively than the Reds this season, and Texas is a hitter-friendly park, primarily thanks to the warm temperatures.
However, Gray is far less talented than Peralta. His career strikeout rate is just 23.7%, with an ERA that typically sits in the mid-fours. Those aren’t horrible numbers, but nothing to write home about either.
With that said, Oakland is implied for the same team total as Cincinnati, suggesting a similar outlook — at least from a run prevention standpoint — for Gray and Peralta. That is notable, given the much cheaper price on Gray. He doesn’t have big strikeout upside, but we can live with that at this salary.
Gray leads THE BAT projections for Pts/Sal, while coming in a close second in the FantasyLabs models.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Hunter Brown ($7,500) Houston Astros (-135) at Kansas City Royals
After an electric start to his big league career, Hunter Brown fell back to earth in 2023. He finished the year with a 5.09 ERA and 26.8% strikeout rate across 29 starts.
Still just 25, there’s certainly room for more development for Brown this year. His strikeout and swinging strike rate hint at the quality of his stuff. His 2024 numbers look bad at first glance, but he had one solid start and one in which he got blown up by the Rangers.
It’s a much easier matchup today against the Royals, who have a team total of 4.3 runs. Brown’s numbers last season were also at least partially due to bad luck — he had an xFIP of 3.57 and all of his leading indicators were considerably lower than his ERA.
All of this makes for a perfect buy-low opportunity on the former top prospect. He’s due for some positive regression, and his salary has dropped $700 from his opening day mark.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Texas Rangers:
We just discussed above how difficult of a matchup the Rangers are for pitchers, with the obvious conclusion being that we should target their bats. As a team, their 130 wRC+ trails only Atlanta for best in the majors. They’re even better against lefties (146 wRC+) making this an excellent stack against the southpaw JP Sears ($5,000).
Sears has an awful ERA of 8.68 to start 2024, with all of his underlying metrics checking in at at least 7.00. He’s probably not that bad — his ERA last season was 4.54 — but even at his best he’s not exactly a pitcher to avoid. Considering the hitter-friendly environment in Texas, don’t expect him to turn his numbers around today.
The Rangers have a slate-leading 5.6 run implied total today, and their first five hitters aren’t even that expensive. That makes them a no-brainer stack on a small slate. However, consider toying around with different permutations for large tournaments. Staying unique with your builds is trickier with only a few games.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Marcell Ozuna OF ($4,800) Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets (Jose Quintana)
Atlanta has the best lineup in baseball, hitting .306 as a team through roughly two weeks of the season. Naturally, affording their bats is tricky. I used PlateIQ to try to identify some cheaper options with good splits against the left-handed Quintana, and landed on Ozuna:
His numbers compare favorably to any of the Braves hitters, and he’s considerably more affordable than their top bats. He’ll be the foundation for Braves mini stacks for me today.
Abraham Toro 3B ($2,500) Oakland A’s at Texas Rangers (Jon Gray)
One way to build unique lineups in smaller slates is by rostering bats against the popular pitchers. Given the likely ownership on Gray — second only to Peralta on the slate — that means targeting A’s bats in lineups without Gray.
That isn’t a bad strategy in a vacuum either. They’re underpriced as a team considering their 4.2 run total, but particularly at the top. If Toro is indeed the lead-off hitter in their lineup as expected, he’s a screaming value at just $2,500 on DraftKings. While he’s not the most exciting click, he leads all hitters in Pts/Sal projection in THE BAT.
