The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Dylan Cease (R) $9,500 Toronto Blue Jays (-160) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Friday’s 13-game slate is packed with plenty of pitching options as several teams turn to their ace to start the weekend. With great options all across the salary structure, Dylan Cease stands out as one of the top pay-up options to build around.
The Blue Jays’ offseason addition has the second-highest strikeout prediction and is tied for the lowest opponents’ implied runs. Cease has been excellent in his first seven games this season, averaging 21.2 DraftKings points per start, and his matchup against the free-swinging Angels gives him both a high floor and a high ceiling.
Cease is 2-1 with a 3.05 ERA and an even better 2.12 FIP. He has an impressive 13.1 K/9 after racking up 56 strikeouts across 38 1/3 innings. He had seven strikeouts and 23 DraftKings points in his last start against the Twins, but he was even better when he took on the Angels in Anaheim earlier this season. In that outing, Cease only lasted five innings, but he matched his season-high with 12 strikeouts and ended up with 31.1 DraftKings points and his first win of the season.
The Angels lead the majors with a 25.5% K% this year, making them a favorable matchup for Cease, even though they do rank in the middle of the pack in most offensive categories. Even if he does give up a few runs like he did when he faced them earlier this year, Cease brings a sky-high ceiling due to his strikeout potential.
The other top pay-up options are all facing even tougher opponents, so Cease is my top stud to build around this Friday night.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Robbie Ray (L) $8,800 San Francisco Giants (-125) vs. Pirates
Robbie Ray has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all the starting pitchers on the board this Friday, and he also has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections. He’s only the sixth-most expensive play, but with such a high ceiling, he makes sense in almost any style of roster construction.
The veteran lefty is only 2-4 in his first seven starts this season, but he has a 2.95 ERA and 4.47 FIP. He has 40 strikeouts in his 39 2/3 innings, and at home, he has allowed just five earned runs in 22 1/3 innings (2.01 ERA). He has held opponents to a .185 batting average at Oracle Park and posted 22 strikeouts in 22 1/3 innings.
In his four home starts, he is averaging 19.5 DraftKings points, and he had a season-high 29.4 DraftKings points in one of his recent home starts against the Phillies.
The Pirates offense has been much better overall this year, but they have the third-highest K% in the majors against lefties, with an 87 wRC+ in the split, meaning they are 13% below league average at creating runs against southpaws.
Ray’s strikeout upside and strong work at home this season make him a very solid mid-range value this Friday, and he can anchor your GPP or your cash game lineups from under $9,000.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Robby Snelling (L) $8,000 Miami Marlins (-125) vs. Washington Nationals
The Marlins are calling up top prospect Robby Snelling to make his first MLB start on Friday night against the Nationals. There’s always some extra risk in playing a pitcher in his MLB debut, but Snelling brings enough upside to be a strong option to consider for GPP builds as long as his ownership looks like it will be low.
Snelling has been excellent this season in Triple-A, going 3-1 in six starts and posting a sparkling 1.86 ERA in 29 innings, along with a 13.7 K/9 as a result of his 44 strikeouts. Snelling impressed last year while splitting time between Double-A and Triple-A, posting an 11.0 K/9 and a 2.51 ERA. His walk rate is a little up this season, but if he can keep that under control, he should be ready to transition to a full-time role in the Marlins rotation.
The 22-year-old lefty is the No. 32 prospect in the MLB and the No. 2 prospect in the Marlins’ system. He struggled a little bit in spring training this year, but his strikeouts translated, which gives him plenty of potential to return excellent value on Friday night in his debut.
The Nationals’ lineup has been solid this season, but they rank in the top five in the MLB in K% against lefties. Snelling isn’t a lock, but he is the kind of boom-or-bust play that makes sense as a high-risk, high-reward play that works for GPP lineups.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by projected points, belongs to the Seattle Mariners:
The Mariners are in a good spot on the road in Chicago at Rate Field against Sean Burke ($6,300) and the White Sox. The top five hitters in their projected batting order are not extremely expensive but have excellent projections against Burke, who is 2-2 with a 2.72 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 3.78 xFIP. Burke has been good against righties, but lefties have hit two homers and posted a .311 wOBA against him this season.
J.P. Crawford has been heating up since returning to the leadoff spot for Seattle and blasted a pair of homers in their three-game set against Atlanta. He has hit safely in seven of his last eight games, with a .443 wOBA and an average of 10.6 DraftKings points per game. Crawford has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate, using the aggregate projections described below.
Cal Raleigh always rings a high ceiling right behind Crawford and has five homers in his last 12 games as he tries to shake off his slow start. Julio Rodriguez always seems to start slowly, but he has three homers in his last 10 games while averaging 9.3 DraftKings points. Josh Naylor has also been hot over that span with a home run and an impressive five stolen bases in his last 10 games, producing 9.3 DraftKings points per game.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Tyler O’Neill OF ($3,400) Baltimore Orioles vs. Athletics (Jacob Lopez)
Tyler O’Neill has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection on the entire slate and brings very solid value at under $3,500 with nice upside as the O’s take on the A’s and face Jacob Lopez.
O’Neill only has one homer on the year so far, and he’s hitting .200 with a .289 wOBA. He has been coming off the bench as a pinch hitter in many matchups lately, but he has been successful against lefties in his career with a .251 average, .261 ISO, and .369 wOBA in the split.
Lopez has allowed 22 runs in his 30 innings this year, and righties are hitting .310 against him with a .411 wOBA and five homers. Here’s how the Orioles look against Lopez in PlateIQ:
Connor Norby 1B ($2,500) Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals (Foster Griffin)
At first base, Connor Norby has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate behind only Naylor. Norby moved up to hit second in the order for the Marlins on Thursday against a lefty, and he’ll be a great value if he’s in that spot again, as projected.
He’s hitting .236 on the season but .263 over the last 25 games with five doubles, three homers, and a .350 wOBA.
Norby had nine DraftKings points on Thursday in the second spot and is averaging 5.6 DraftKings points over his last nine games. If you are looking for a bargain option to give you salary to spend in other spots, Norby is a great bargain to consider on Friday.
Lenyn Sosa 1B/2B ($2,600) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels (Reid Detmers)
Lenyn Sosa is another bargain play in a favorable spot against a lefty, and he brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus at 2B in the aggregate projections.
Sosa has hit .238 with one homer in his 27 games this season. In his 15 games with the Blue Jays, he’s 12-for-47 (.255) with a homer, three doubles, and a .273 wOBA. He has three barrels in his last five games with a 50% hard-hit rate and 21.4% barrel rate. He has a max exit velocity of over 101 mph in four of those five games and seems to be seeing the ball very well.
He hit .276 against lefties with a .318 wOBA and 103 wRC+ last season, and he is 2-for-6 with a homer in his past matchups with Reid Detmers. Sosa has been streaky throughout his career, but he brings nice upside for a bargain play this Friday.
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Pictured: Dylan Cease
Photo Credit: Imagn
