The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Jacob deGrom (R) $9,500 Texas Rangers (-172) at Los Angeles Angels
Friday’s 12-game slate starts off Memorial Day weekend with a great set of matchups and some strong pitchers on the mound. The top median, floor, and ceiling projections of the night belong to Jacob deGrom, who gets a great matchup against the Angels in the first game of this AL West series in Anaheim.
The Rangers are the third-heaviest favorite of the night on the Vegas dashboard, and the Angels have the lowest implied run total of any team in action. Of the 24 probable starters, deGrom has the highest strikeout prediction as well and should be set up for success.
In his nine starts, deGrom is 3-3 this season with a 3.02 ERA and 3.73 FIP. He has 61 strikeouts in 50 2/3 innings. He has averaged 20.7 DraftKings points per start and posted over 29 DraftKings points in three of his last seven games. His best start during that stretch came against the Cubs, when he had 10 strikeouts in shutout innings to earn 38 DraftKings points.
He has that kind of upside against the Angels, who lead the majors with a 25.7% K% and have scored only 31 runs in their last 13 games (2.4 runs per game). Over that span, they have hit just .193 as a team with a 65 team wRC+. That means they are a massive 35% below league average at run creation over that span.
This will be the first time deGrom faces the Halos this season, but he seems set up for a dominant outing.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Connor Prielipp (L) $7,000 Minnesota Twins (+125) at Boston Red Sox
While deGrom has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all the starting pitchers on the board, Prielipp climbs into the top five in that category, even though his salary is affordable at only $7,000 as the Twins roll into Fenway to face the Red Sox.
The 25-year-old lefty has been very solid for Minnesota, allowing eight earned runs with a 0.96 WHIP over his 25 innings with 29 strikeouts. He’s only 1-2 but has a 2.88 ERA and 4.18 FIP. Some batted-ball regression will likely come at some point since his BABIP against him is only .190 on the season, but he’s in a good enough matchup against the Red Sox to be a solid play to consider Friday night in spite of that.
Prielipp was sharp in his last start and earned a season-high 24.5 DraftKings points against the Brewers. He only allowed one earned run on three hits in six innings but took a hard-luck loss. It was his longest outing of the season, and he was very efficient on his way to a season-high eight strikeouts.
The Red Sox are the only team in the majors who have scored fewer runs over the last two weeks than the Angels. In 11 games, they have scored 28 runs (2.5 runs per game) while hitting .253 as a team. They haven’t been able to come up with big hits all season and only have an 89 wRC+ as a team on the year. Even at Fenway, they’ve been a good matchup to attack, so Prielipp is a solid value play for Friday night on the road.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Davis Martin (R) $8,400 Chicago White Sox (-113) at San Francisco Giants
The White Sox continue their trip to the West Coast this weekend, visiting the Giants by the Bay. Davis Martin gets the ball in the season opener, and his ownership looks like it will be a little low, setting him up as a good pivot play to consider for GPP builds.
Martin’s salary has climbed almost $2,000 since earlier this season, but he still has a 90% Bargain Rating on DraftKings since he’s more affordable than in other DFS formats. Martin is an impressive 6-1 in his nine starts with a 1.61 ERA, 2.39 FIP, and 59 strikeouts in 56 innings.
The 29-year-old righty has averaged 23.7 DraftKings points per start, going over 23 DraftKings points in each of his last four outings, highlighted by a dominant outing against the Angels that earned him a massive 36.75 DraftKings points in his last road start.
He gets a great matchup against the light-hitting Giants, who have scored the fewest runs in the majors this season, averaging 3.5 runs per game. San Francisco’s offense was starting to show some signs of life but only managed eight total runs in a three-game sweep in Arizona to start this week. Martin will look to keep them quiet on Friday, and if he does, he will be a great leverage play while saving some salary compared to the elite, pay-up plays.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by projected points, belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
The Diamondbacks are a strong stack as they host the Rockies for the weekend, and on Friday, they’ll face Tomoyuki Sugano ($5,800) for a second straight start. Sugano got the win against Arizona last weekend in Colorado, going five innings and allowing seven hits and two runs. In his first year with the Rockies, the 36-year-old righty is 4-3 with a 4.02 ERA and 5.48 FIP. He pitches to a lot of contact and has a 15.5% barrel rate against him. Lefties have hit .282 against him with six of his nine home runs allowed and a .405 wOBA.
The top five hitters in the lineup are the top stack to consider and come at a solid total of $24,000 ($4,800 per player). Marte, Vargas, and Perdomo will face Sugano from the left side, putting them on the strong side of his splits. Marte has multiple hits in five of his last seven games, going 12-for-29 (.414) with two doubles and two homers to average 13.1 DraftKings points per game. Vargas has been one of the season’s biggest breakthrough surprises, averaging 9.0 FPTS per game.
Carroll has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of any player on the slate, along with a top-five projected Plus/Minus. Carroll is 16-for-46 (.348) in his last 13 games with four doubles, two triples, three homers, and two stolen bases to average 12.1 DraftKings points per game. He has also averaged 16.8 DraftKings points in his four games against the Rockies this season after delivering the walk-off winner in Game 1 of this series on Thursday.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Fernando Tatis Jr. 2B/OF ($4,200) San Deigo Padres vs. Athletics (Jeffrey Springs)
Tatis has the highest Plus/Minus projection on the entire slate and brings excellent value potential from the top of the Padres’ lineup against lefty Jeffrey Springs. Tatis is still searching for his first homer of the season, but he has been hitting the ball extremely well all season.
In his 48 games, Tatis is hitting .239 with five doubles, a triple, and 12 stolen bases. He has hit safely in four straight games with a pair of stolen bases. He has a 54.4% hard-hit rate and 11.0% barrel rate on the year but hasn’t been able to get one out of the park yet.
Against lefties like Springs, Tatis is 6-for-28 with three extra-base hits. The Padres stack up well against Springs, as you can see in our PlateIQ:
Patrick Wisdom 3B ($2,100) Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals (Noah Cameron)
Wisdom is back in the majors after spending 2025 in the KBO. The 34-year-old hit .276 with 12 homers in 23 games in Triple-A for an impressive .480 wOBA to go with a 55.6% hard-hit rate.
He has made two starts in the Mariners’ last two games, going 1-for-7 with a double and two walks. He has five hard-hit batted-ball events and a barrel for a 100% hard-hit rate and a 20% barrel rate. While he hasn’t had the results, he’s still crushing the ball and should be in the lineup in a favorable matchup against lefty Noah Cameron.
Wisdom is barely more than the minimum salary and won’t have to do much to be a great value play. He has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection at the hot corner for this Friday.
Michael Harris II OF ($3,800) Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals (Miles Mikolas)
Harris has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all outfielders under $4,000 on this Friday night, and the Braves lefty is coming off a huge two-homer game that earned him 30 DraftKings points on Thursday.
Harris has averaged 9.1 DraftKings points per game over his last 10 games and 14.2 DraftKings points in his four games against the Nats. He is 5-for-11 in his career against Miles Mikolas with a double.
On the season, Harris is up to 11 homers in 48 games with a .298 batting average, .226 ISO, and a .369 wOBA. He has had a great bounce-back year after struggling last season, and he’s still very affordable on Friday as a great way to fill an outfield spot with a player that brings lots of upside under $4,000.
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Pictured: Jacob deGrom
Photo Credit: Imagn
