The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Freddy Peralta (R) $8,800 New York Mets (-225) vs. Colorado Rockies
With a massive 13-game Major League Baseball slate this Friday night, it takes a lot to stand out from the rest of the scheduled starting pitchers, but Freddy Peralta does exactly that in this matchup against the Rockies.
Peralta matches more Pro Trends than any other starting pitcher by a wide margin, has the highest strikeout prediction, and brings the best Plus/Minus projection of any starting pitcher on the board. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all 26 starting pitchers on the schedule this Friday.
Peralta has gone only 1-2 in his first five starts for the Mets, with a 4.05 ERA and 4.35 FIP. However, he still has 28 strikeouts in 26 2/3 innings, with a .190 batting average against him.
He’ll be in a great strikeout matchup on Friday against the Rockies, who are second in the majors with 239 strikeouts (9.2 per game) this season. The Rockies have an 88 wRC+ as a team, meaning they are 12% below league average at run creation. They have the lowest implied team total of any team on Friday’s slate, according to our Vegas Dashboard.
Peralta should get good run support against the struggling Michael Lorenzen, and he has a good chance to have his best start as a Met based on the matchup. Peralta has averaged 15.5 DraftKings points per game, with over 19 DraftKings points in three of his five starts, but his ceiling for Friday night is even higher.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Yusei Kikuchi (L) $6,400 Los Angeles Angels (-180) at Kansas City Royals
While he is a high-risk option, Yusei Kikuchi brings lots of value potential as he takes the mound in Kansas City against the Royals. He has the third-highest Plus/Minus projection of all the starting pitchers on the board and has flashed some nice upside, despite a few bumpy outings.
In his last start, Kikuchi looked excellent, earning 25.9 DraftKings points by holding the Padres to four hits and no runs over six innings while racking up eight strikeouts in a no-decision. Those eight strikeouts matched his season-high from a few starts ago against the Braves.
Kikuchi was knocked around on the road by the Yankees, Cubs, and Astros, but the Royals are a much more favorable matchup for him this Friday night. Kansas City is hitting .229 as a team and has scored the second-fewest runs in the majors, averaging only 3.5 runs per contest. The Royals are a little lefty-heavy, and they have hit only .212 as a team against lefties like Kikuchi, with a 67 wRC+ that is the third-lowest in the majors against southpaws.
While Kikuchi has a good ceiling due to his strikeout upside, his floor is raised by the favorable matchup against the Royals, making him a great value play at under $6,500 on DraftKings.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Emmet Sheehan (R) $8,200 Los Angeles Dodgers (-162) vs. Chicago Cubs
Emmet Sheehan has allowed 13 runs in 20 innings this season, and his tough matchup at home should keep his ownership low. Sheehan has only averaged 11.6 DraftKings points per game in his four starts, but he has shown some positive signs in his last two outings.
Sheehan got a win in his last home start, earning a season-high 20.5 DraftKings points with six strikeouts in six innings against the Rangers. He did allow two homers but limited the damage to just three runs.
He followed that outing up with a solid showing in Colorado at Coors Field, working five innings and giving up two runs on four hits with four strikeouts. The 26-year-old righty was more effective last year with a 2.82 ERA and 89 strikeouts in 73 1/3 innings, and he seems to be rediscovering that form.
He’s in a tough matchup against the Cubs, who come in hot after winning nine straight, but that should help keep his ownership low, making him a good GPP flier with upside.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points using our tournament model belongs to the New York Yankees:
The Yankees are starting their series in Houston with a matchup against Lance McCullers Jr. ($6,800), and they have the third-highest implied run total of the night. The top of the Yankees lineup is a strong stack to consider against McCullers, who started the season with a strong outing against the Red Sox, but he has allowed 13 runs on 15 hits in 13 1/3 innings in his three starts since then. He has a 50% hard-hit rate against him this season and a 1.38 WHIP against him.
In their past meetings, Giancarlo Stanton has gone 3-for-8 with a double, a home run, and four walks, while Aaron Judge is only 3-for-17 but does have a double and a home run. Trent Grisham has a much smaller sample size but is 2-for-3 with a double.
In addition to the outfielders, the top stack above includes lefties Jazz Chisholm, who homered Thursday and posted 19 DraftKings points, and Ben Rice, who is averaging over 10 DraftKings points per game and has posted an average of 13.3 DraftKings points over his last six starts.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
James Wood OF ($5,000) Washington Nationals at Chicago White Sox (Erick Fedde)
Even though he’s definitely not a bargain at $6,000, the aggregate projections point out that James Wood brings plenty of value. He has the highest ceiling projection of all outfielders on the slate and the fifth-highest Plus/Minus projection at the position, even though he comes with such a hefty price tag.
Wood has been mashing lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in six of his last eight games. Over those eight games, he is 8-for-30 (.267) but has five homers, nine walks, and a stolen base to average 15 DraftKings points per game.
The weather and matchup should be in his favor in Chicago on Friday, and he’ll be facing former Nationals starter Erick Fedde in a good spot for him to stay hot and be a pay-up piece to build around.
Kyle Manzardo 1B ($3,000) Cleveland Guardians at Toronto Blue Jays (Max Scherzer)
The Guardians are in Toronto, and Kyle Manzardo is a great value at first base, with the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at 1B in the aggregate projections.
In his last 11 games, Manzardo is 12-for-39 (.308) with a double and a home run, resulting in a .347 wOBA. He hasn’t been smashing everything like Wood (according to Statcast metrics), but he continues to hit in the middle of the order and be in the mix of all the offense.
Manzardo and the Guardians should be in a good spot against Scherzer, who has a 7.16 ERA, 6.21 FIP, and an 11.5% barrel rate against him. Lefties like Manzardo are in an especially good spot, and here’s how they look in PlateIQ:
Andrew Benintendi OF ($3,100) Chicago White Sox vs. Washington Nationals (Miles Mikolas)
In the aggregate projections, Andrew Benintendi has the sixth-highest Plus/Minus projection of all outfielders at only $3,100, and he is usually hitting leadoff against Miles Mikolas. Benintendi has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last six starts, averaging 13 DraftKings points per game over that stretch.
Benintendi moved to the leadoff spot eight games ago for the first time, and he is 9-for-34 (.265) with two doubles, a triple, and two homers for a .363 wOBA during that span.
Mikolas has let lefties hit .333 against him this season, with two homers and a .402 wOBA. Benintendi makes sense if you need a bargain outfielder with upside. He also brings a high floor because he’s hitting leadoff and will get extra at-bats in what should be a high-scoring contest.
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Pictured: Freddy Peralta
Photo Credit: Imagn
