The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday’s slate features a 12-game all-day slate starting at 12:10 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel and an eight-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET.
On FanDuel, there are two pitchers who cost $10,000 or more:
- Justin Verlander (R) $11,100, HOU vs. MIL
- Mike Soroka (R) $10,600, ATL vs. PIT
Verlander is the most expensive pitcher on Wednesday’s main slate. While he leads the main slate with an 8.8 K Prediction, he still draws a tough matchup against a projected Brewers lineup with a 24.1% strikeout rate and .346 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. Additionally, their offense ranks 11th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) and eighth in team ISO against right-handed pitchers this season.
Verlander typically has a high floor with his 30.9% strikeout rate, but given the tougher matchup, you could get away with paying down at pitcher to get to some of the Coors Field bats on the all-day slate. At the time of writing, there are currently nine teams with implied run totals over 5.0 and five over 5.3.
Soroka is only available on the all-day slates for DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s been incredibly reliable this season, averaging a +6.79 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 70% Consistency Rating. However, he likely lacks the upside to pay for his price tag in this spot considering he has a 4.4 K Prediction against a projected Pirates lineup that has a low 17.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past year. Soroka owns a slate-worst Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel for Wednesday.
Danny Duffy is mildly intriguing if you’re looking to pay down at pitcher to load up on bats. He carries a 73% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, and his +7.63 Projected Plus/Minus is the third-highest mark on the main slate. It’s a great matchup against a projected Tigers lineup that is sporting a 27.2% strikeout rate and weak .301 wOBA against lefties over the past year. Duffy is a volatile option, and the Tigers are implied for 4.1 runs, but the Royals do check in as -150 moneyline favorites.
Joey Lucchesi leads FanDuel’s main slate with a 96% Bargain Rating. He’s been solid this season, pitching to a 3.83 xFIP with a 24.4% strikeout rate. There might not be many strikeouts for him to find in this Giants lineup, but he still possesses a respectable 6.3 K Prediction. Furthermore, the Giants rank dead last in wRC+ and team ISO against left-handed pitching this season, and they’re implied for a slate-low 3.5 runs.
The Marlins haven’t been a high-strikeout team over the past year against righties and Miles Mikolas isn’t a high-strikeout pitcher with his 17.6% strikeout rate, but he does have a walk rate of just 4.7% this season. He’s a better value on DraftKings with his 73% Bargain Rating, but he’s still viable on FanDuel against a Marlins team that ranks last in wRC+ and team ISO against righties this season. Overall, the Cardinals are -152 moneyline favorites and the Marlins have an implied total of just 3.6 runs.
Jose Berrios: He and the Twins are massive -209 moneyline favorites against a Mariners team implied for 3.7 runs. Although, it’s not a perfect spot since the Mariners rank seventh in wRC+ and second in ISO against righties this season. That said, Berrios has the second-highest median projection in our models.
- 1. Kyle Schwarber (L)
- 2. Kris Bryant (R)
- 3. Anthony Rizzo (L)
- 5. Carlos Gonzalez (L)
Total salary: $19,400
With the Cubs at Coors Field, they lead the entire day with a 6.8 implied run total, a full run higher than the Rockies. It’s a great matchup against Antonio Senzatela, who has pitched to a 4.97 xFIP with a 3.0% K-BB% this season. The low strikeout rate and high walk rate should bode well for the Cubs at a hitter-friendly venue like Coors Field.
Schwarber will be on the positive side of his batting splits, and he’s crushed righties over the past 12 months, hitting them to the tune of a .352 wOBA and .245 ISO. His recent Statcast numbers should translate well to the ultimate hitters park as he’s averaged a 246-foot average distance and 95-mph exit velocity over the past two weeks.
Rizzo possesses a 94-mph exit velocity over the past 15 days, and he’s throttled right-handed pitchers over the past year, sporting an elite .416 wOBA and .249 ISO against them.
The top main-slate FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.
- 1. Jonathan Villar (S)
- 2. Anthony Santander (S)
- 3. Trey Mancini (R)
- 4. Chance Sisco (L)
Total salary: $11,700
The Blue Jays and Orioles game is shaping up to be a high-scoring affair with both teams implied for 5.6 runs at the time of writing. The Orioles lead the main slate with a Team Value Rating of 97 in our Vegas Dashboard. It’s a sublime matchup against Edwin Jackson, who is pitching to a 5.99 xFIP with a 6.7% K-BB% this season. Over his last two starts, he’s allowed opposing hitters to average a 264-foot average distance, 98-mph exit velocity and massive 57% hard-hit rate.
Per our Trends tool, hitters featured in games with similar implied run totals against pitchers with comparable recent Statcast data have averaged an excellent +3.05 FanDuel Plus/Minus. This is an easy stack to afford on FanDuel with every hitter owning a Bargain Rating of at least 77%.
With the Blue Jays also sporting a 5.6 implied run total, exposure to some of their bats makes sense. Justin Smoak will be on the positive side of his splits against right-handed David Hess. Over the past 12 months, Smoak owns an elite .387 wOBA and .272 ISO against righties. Hess has a massive 2.47 HR/9 over the past year. And over his last two starts, he’s allowed hitters to average a 235-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 56% hard-hit rate.
Nelson Cruz has been on fire of late, averaging a 278-foot average distance, 101-mph exit velocity and 73% hard-hit rate. While those numbers will surely regress, he’s still in a good spot on Wednesday. The Twins are implied for 5.4 runs against Tommy Milone and his fly-ball tendencies. Milone owns a 46% fly-ball rate over the past year and over his last two starts, he’s allowed a 233-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity with a 48% hard-hit rate and 41% fly-ball rate. Meanwhile, Cruz has smashed lefties, boasting a .382 wOBA and .276 ISO against them over the past year.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Nelson Cruz
Photo credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports