The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Chase Burns $11,300 Cincinnati Reds (-169) vs. Cleveland Guardians
There’s a significant gap between Chase Burns and everyone else on Monday, both in terms of projections and salary. He’s comfortably ahead of the rest of the pitchers in median and ceiling projection but also $2,500 more expensive than any other arm on the slate. That makes sense, as the opposing Guardians are the only team implied for less than 4 runs on Monday, but it also makes for some tough calls in DFS.
The good news is that salary is fairly easy to come by. The top stack on the slate is cheap, and you couldn’t spend all that much money on a second pitcher even if you wanted to. Burns is the most likely, if not the only, pitcher capable of breaking the slate open, coming into the contest with a 2.42 ERA and 28.6% strikeout rate. The cross-state rival Guardians are a slightly below-average team in both run production and strikeouts against righties, though the hitter-friendly location of this game effectively balances the matchup out.
Burns is projecting among the top group of pitchers in ownership but not running away as the obvious play, which also makes rostering him a bit more palatable than if he were going to be in most lineups. I have some concerns over how long he’ll get to work, though. The 23-year-old was pulled after 91 pitches despite not allowing a run in his first start since the All-Star break, and the last-place Reds are probably more concerned with his longevity than with winning games now.
The optimistic view is that he’s ramping back up after an extended break rather than slowly being shut down – and Burns can certainly do enough damage in 91 pitches to break a slate like this anyway. I’d like to be over the field on him in tournaments, though there are enough drawbacks that I’ll look elsewhere in cash.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Tatsuya Imai (R) $6,800 Houston Astros (-118) at Los Angeles Angels
The only pitcher projected to be more popular than Burns is the Astros’ Imai, who is looking for a second straight impressive start after striking out 8 Marlins in 6 innings of one-run ball in his last outing.
Overall, Imai has an ugly 5.59 ERA. However, that mark is a bit misleading. All of his underlying numbers are at least a full run better, and he’s also struck out 27.5% of the opposing batters he’s faced – a mark that is effectively equal to Chase Burns, who is $4,500 more expensive. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he racked up more Ks than Burns tonight, since he’s facing an Angels team with the 2nd-highest strikeout rate against righties in baseball.
With Imai an established 28-year-old with a long career in Japan and Houston just 2 games out of first place in their division, there’s also less concern about his workload than there is with Burns. There’s more concern about his run prevention, though, with the Angels implied for 4.3 runs. That’s not a terrible mark by any stretch, though, especially at this price tag.
I’m more than happy to lean into the cheap upside of Imai, even with some run-scoring risk, the only real drawback being his ownership. There are other pitchers nearly as cheap who should be much less popular, making Imai a better cash-game or small-field tournament play than he is in massive tournaments.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Max Fried (L) $8,600 New York Yankees (-153) at Chicago White Sox
One of those other pitchers with a similar projection to Imai at lower ownership is Fried, who obviously has a lower Pts/Sal projection at nearly $2,000 more. However, with this slate being fairly loose from a salary standpoint, paying up to be contrarian could be worthwhile. Chicago strikes out nearly 25% of the time against lefties, and Fried carries a sub-3.00 ERA into this one, so he’s an elite tournament pivot at lower ownership.
Brandon Sproat (R) $7,300 Milwaukee Brewers (-135) at San Francisco Giants
Sproat trails only Imai in Pts/Sal projection, with a similar profile this season. Sproat also has an ERA above 5.00 but better underlying numbers (4.29 SIERA) and a solid 24.4% strikeout rate. The drawback is the Giants are an above-average team against righties – though their pitcher-friendly park mitigates some of that. Sproat is clearly a step down from the other pitchers mentioned here but also projecting for about half the ownership, making him a solid contrarian option for multi-entry players.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
The driving force behind the loose salary structure that I keep referencing is the Red Sox. Boston leads the slate with their 5.5-run implied total, but at less than $4,200 per player, they’re extremely affordable, which leaves plenty left to spend up at pitcher or on other hitter spots.
While Boston currently ranks 28th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching, there are 2 factors driving their elite total tonight. The first is the pitching matchup. They’re facing rookie Perkins ($6,500), who has a 5.77 ERA through just over 100 innings in the big leagues and a 7.67 ERA as a starter. He likely doesn’t last long in this one, but Boston could certainly rack up some points while he’s in.
The other factor is the ballpark, with this game being played in Sacramento. Since the A’s began play at their temporary home of Sutter Home Park, it’s been the 2nd-best place for hitters behind only Coors Field. For context, Coors boosts scoring about 14%, Sutter Home Park is at 11%, and no other stadium is above 4%.
All told, we have a cheap stack against a bad pitcher in an elite park – what more could you ask for?
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Seiya Suzuki OF $4,800 Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals (Matthew Liberatore)
The Cubs come into Monday trailing only the Nationals for the best wRC+ against left-handed pitching. They’re facing southpaw Matthew Liberatore ($6,700), whose ERA and underlying numbers are all right around 5.00. On top of that, we’ve got elite hitting weather in St. Louis tonight, with hot temperatures that boost both scoring and home runs by around 15%.
Which means the Cubs are a viable stack in general, but relative to their salaries, Suzuki is my favorite option. He’s $1,500 cheaper than Pete Crow-Armstrong ($6,300) but has better numbers against lefties specifically, as we see in PlateIQ:
With plenty of green on that screenshot, the overall case for stacking the Bucs is also obvious, but if you have to pick one, it’s Suzuki – or Carson Kelly ($3,400), who leads all catchers in median projection.
Paul Goldschmidt 1B ($3,700) New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox (Noah Schultz)
The Yankees are another team on the stronger side of their platoon splits against a southpaw opponent, though those splits aren’t quite as extreme without Aaron Judge in the lineup. Still, Goldschmidt has been as good as ever at 38 years old, with a .333 average against lefties this season.
He’s also managed 9 home runs in just 111 at-bats, compared to 7 home runs against righties in 156 chances. That makes him a perfect example of a player priced for his overall performance, but likely to be much better than that in this specific matchup. He should be at least $1,000 more expensive, and leads all first basemen in median projections despite ranking 13th (!) in salary.
Elly De La Cruz SS ($6,000) Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians (Slade Cecconi)
Cruz is the type of elite play I typically don’t write up here, as he’s almost always a solid option, but hard to afford thanks to his correspondingly high salary. However, he’s somewhat easy to get to tonight. If you don’t roster Burns as a pitcher, you can get any bats you want, and even if you do, Cruz isn’t out of reach.
He’s hitting .278 with 18 home runs and 18 steals this season, giving him a nice mix of floor (as much as any MLB hitter has) and upside that’s hard to come by. Plus, shortstop is fairly thin tonight, with Cruz leading the rest of the position by more than 1.5 points of median projection.
That’s the kind of separation that’s worth paying up for, so I’m making it a priority to get to him in my lineups.
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Pictured: Chase Burns
Photo Credit: Imagn
