The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a split slate: The 10-game early slate starts at 1:07 p.m. ET, while the four-game afternoon slate begins at 4:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On DraftKings, there are three pitchers who cost $9,500 or more:
- Blake Snell (L) $10,700, TB vs. BOS
- Michael Kopech (R) $9,800, CWS @ DET
- Zack Greinke (R) $10,300, ARI vs. SEA
Snell is coming off an 11-strikeout performance against the Royals in his last start, but he’s $900 more expensive than any other pitcher on the DraftKings main slate. It’s an absolutely brutal matchup against a projected Red Sox lineup that possesses an insanely low 19.6% strikeout rate and impressive .347 wOBA over the past 12 months against left-handed pitching. That said, Snell almost always provides strikeout upside with a 10.37 SO/9 over the past year, so it’s ot shocking — even in a terrible matchup — that he owns a slate-leading 7.1 K Prediction. The Red Sox are also implied for a bottom-two 3.6 runs, but Snell probably makes a lot more sense on tournament rosters today. Per our Trends tool, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions and Vegas data have been strong investments, sporting a +1.63 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 62.7% Consistency Rating.
Despite being a top prospect for the White Sox, Kopech at $9,800 is pretty egregious in only his second major league start. He’s only $6,400 on FanDuel with a 99% Bargain Rating, so if you feel like taking a flyer that’s the platform where it makes the most sense. Before a rain delay in his debut, he yielded a 250-foot batted ball distance and 60% fly-ball rate in two innings pitched, and the upside could be limited against a projected Tigers lineup with a low 20.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the past year.
On the afternoon slate, Greinke could go under-owned in favor of arguably much more appealing options the mid range. However, Vegas leans heavily toward the Diamondbacks as -187 moneyline favorites against the Mariners. It’s certainly an above-average matchup, Seattle’s projected lineup owns a subpar .291 wOBA against righties over the past year. Greinke has middling recent Statcast data, but his 1.07 WHIP over the past year still inspires a ton of confidence and he possesses the highest ceiling projection on the slate.
Values
Jordan Zimmerman is a reasonable main-slate salary-saving option, as the Tigers are slight +100 underdogs vs. the White Sox. He has subpar recent Statcast numbers, but he’s also sporting a 6.2 K Prediction thanks in part to the projected Chicago lineup’s 28.0% strikeout rate against righties over the past year.
Kyle Hendricks looks underpriced in the mid-range on both sites, coming in at $8,000 and $8,100 on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively. He will take on a projected Reds lineup that ranks 21st in wRC+ this season to right-handed pitching as massive -235 moneyline favorites. Pitchers with similar salaries and comparable Vegas data tend to be reliable options, having posted a +1.94 average Plus/Minus, at a chalky 29.2% ownership rate in large guaranteed prize pools.
Fastballs
Chris Archer: He provides a ton of tournament leverage on the main slate, as the Pirates are +120 underdogs facing the Brewers. He’s sporting a 6.6 K Prediction and strong recent Statcast numbers, including a batted-ball distance allowed of 186 feet over his past two starts.
Kevin Gausman: He doesn’t have high strikeout upside (5.0 K Prediction), so his price may be tough to justify in cash games, but the opposing Marlins’ .292 wOBA over the past 12 months is worst in the slate and they are tied for 27th in wRC+ against righties this season. The Braves are also the third-largest favorite on the main slate (-172), and Gausman has given up the lowest fly-ball percentage (24%) of any of today’s pitching options.
Shane Bieber: The projected Royals lineup is below-average against right-handed pitching with a .301 wOBA over the past year, fourth-worst on the entire main slate. Bieber lacks strikeout upside but should be a relatively safe option, as the Indians are sizable -215 moneyline favorites.
Hyun-jin Ryu: The matchup against the Padres carries immense upside, as their projected lineup owns a slate-worst 28.4% strikeout rate, and they also struggle to hit left-handed pitching over the past year with a .298 wOBA. Vegas seems on board with the Dodgers: They are the largest favorite on the afternoon slate with -231 moneyline odds.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Phillies:
- 1. Cesar Hernandez (S)
- 2. Rhys Hoskins (R)
- 3. Nick Williams (L)
- 4. Wilson Ramos (R)
- 5. Carlos Santana (S)
Total Salary: $21,300
Philadelphia’s implied team total of 4.7 runs is just outside the top tier, so they could go under-owned in tournaments in a prime matchup against Blue Jays’ righty Marco Estrada. That may be a mistake as Estrade has a slate-worst 1.68 HR/9 over the past year.
Ramos, in particular, has crushed the baseball, owning a distance differential of +33 feet and a hard hit differential of +25 percentage points, and he’s posted strong marks in wOBA and ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months.
Coors Field will be easy to stack today on the afternoon slate, considering the plethora of value pitching options available. The top four-man FanDuel stack at Coors on today’s slate belongs to the Cardinals, which owns a top-three 5.2 implied run total:
- 2. Yadier Molina (R)
- 4. Jose Martinez (R)
- 5. Tyler O’Neill (R)
- 6. Paul DeJong (R)
Total Salary: $14,500
There’s rarely a contrarian option when playing at Coors, but DeJong may be worth eating some chalk given how he’s played over the past 15 days. He has been smashing with a 247-foot batted ball distance, 93-mph exit velocity, and both 50% fly-ball and hard-hit rates. Batting cleanup, Martinez should be a staple in Cardinals stacks on the right side of his batting splits, including a .399 wOBA and .185 ISO against left-handed pitching.
Other Batters
There are worse places to take a stand than Matt Holliday at Coors Field. He’s only $4,100 on DraftKings, but he should be a priority in both cash games and guaranteed prize pools, sporting a NSFW batted ball distance of 294 feet, exit velocity of 95 mph, and fly-ball rate of 60%. Projected to bat leadoff for the same team, Charlie Blackmon will probably be the chalk, but he’s a strong progression candidate in a clear pay up to be contrarian spot.
In a fantastic leverage spot, Billy McKinney can differentiate your lineups from Phillies stacks, as the opposing Blue Jays are implied for a mediocre 4.5 runs. Quite honestly. his batting splits are some of the best I’ve ever seen, including a .505 wOBA and .409 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Joey Votto is due for a breakout with a +85 Recent Batted Ball Luck. He’s in a solid matchup against Cubs right-hander Hendricks, though he has been better lately allowing only a 26% hard-hit rate. He has shown immaculate recent form with a 253-foot batted ball distance, 97-mph exit velocity, and 63% hard-hit rate. He has just 4.7 average DraftKings points per game over the past month, but it’s possible he has been extremely unlucky.
The usual subjects for Cleveland haven’t hit exceedingly well lately, but Yonder Alonso will likely be popular due to their high implied total and he’s been crushing the ball as of late with a 224-foot average distance 90-mph exit velocity over the past 15 days. Edwin Encarnacion is interesting in the cleanup position, generating a ton of hard contact, including a 97-mph exit velocity and 53% hard-hit rate over his past four games.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Wilson Ramos
Photo credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
