The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a seven-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET
Point Guard
Studs
The Celtics will be looking for their 15th straight win today, a streak abetted in large part by the play of Kyrie Irving. He matches up attractively tonight against the Atlanta Hawks. They’ve allowed an average Plus/Minus of +4.13 to opposing PGs on FanDuel this season which isn’t surprising considering that Dennis Schroder has been abysmal as an individual defender this season, ranking 86th out of 87 qualifiers at PG in terms of Defensive Real Plus/Minus. Kyrie, on the other hand, leads the PG position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Speaking of Schroder, he appears to be an excellent value on DraftKings, where his $6,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent. He’s dominating usage for the Hawks, ranking 11th in the league with a 30.3 percent usage rate. And yet he’s failed to show any value in his last three games owing to a combination of poor shooting and blowout conditions in two of the three. Assuming the Hawks don’t get run out of the arena – they’re at last check only 6.5 point underdogs – Schroder should get a barrage of shots off against a relatively weak individual defender in Irving.
Value
The Timberwolves blew out the Mavericks last night, and thus snapped Dennis Smith Jr.’s string of four straight games with at least 30 minutes of playing time. Sure, Smith has a difficult matchup today against the Milwaukee Bucks – on DraftKings, his Opponent Plus/Minus Rating is a measly -0.54 – but, considering his usage and projected minutes, he’s just flat out underpriced right now. Historically, PGs with comparable salaries, usage rates, and projected workloads have been excellent values on DraftKings:
Fast Break
Elfrid Payton appears to have put his minute-limitation issues behind him, playing 31 in his last game against the Portland Trail Blazers. He has a daunting on-paper matchup against the Utah Jazz, but the Jazz have not been the same team defensively since the loss of Rudy Gobert, allowing an average of 109.75 points over four games to some uninspiring offensive teams. Payton is always a threat to give you a relatively cheap triple-double.
Eric Bledsoe gets the top matchup of the day among starting PGs, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.47 against the Dallas Mavericks. His usage rate has been second only to Giannis’ since joining the Bucks, and he’s played at least 30 minutes in two of his last three games.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Even at $12,700, James Harden was able to return value in his most recent game thanks in part to the Rockets scoring 90 points in the first half against the Phoenix Suns. Of course, the big question is: can Harden keep it going now that Chris Paul is easing back into the rotation? Paul played just 21 minutes in his first game back from injury, and roughly half of those came with Harden off the court. Ultimately, when the two do share the court together, it will likely represent a major decrease in both usage and fantasy production for Harden:
Unfortunately, for Harden, tonight’s menu does not offer a cake matchup like the Suns to feast on. He’s taking on the grind-it-out Memphis Grizzlies, who, playing at the third slowest pace, rank ninth in defensive efficiency. That results in a pace differential (paceD) of -7.8 for the Rockets players, and their implied team total of 111 points represents a decrease of roughly two points compared to their season average. Harden has also historically struggled in this matchup:
That number already includes three matchups from this season, where Harden scored 39.75, 40.5, and 58.5 fantasy points. All three of those matchups came without Paul, and Harden was also priced at a cheaper price tag for the first two. While this is a brutal spot, it still might be tough to avoid Harden on DraftKings, where he leads the slate with 13 Pro Trends and has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Value
Assuming that Patrick Beverley and Danilo Gallinari are out once again, Lou Williams appears to be in a good spot today against the Charlotte Hornets. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus rating of +4.25, and Williams has averaged just under 38 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with Gallo and Williams off the court this season:
Fast Break
Here’s what Memphis’ Tyreke Evans has done over his last 10 games:
With Mike Conley officially sidelined for an indefinite period, the outlook for Evans can only get better. He leads the Grizzlies in both usage and fantasy points when Conley’s off the floor this season:
Ricky Rubio is currently questionable for today’s game, and if he were to sit, it would create even more injury value at the SG position. Donovan Mitchell has been sensational over his last 10 games, with an average Plus/Minus of +8.36; and he’s averaged roughly 35 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with Rubio off the court this season. Rodney Hood would also be in play for the Jazz: He played 36 minutes in yesterday’s game without Rubio and has an average usage rate of 29.5 percent without Rubio this season.
Small Forward
Stud
Deciding what to do with Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to be a key factor on today’s slate. On the one hand, he has a solid matchup against the Dallas Mavericks, who rank 28th in both defensive efficiency and rebound rate this season. They do play slow, however, resulting in a paceD of -2.5 for Giannis and the rest of the Bucks. Combining those factors results in a middling Opponent Plus/Minus rating of +1.17 for Giannis.
But there’s an even more worrisome factor: what the addition of Bledose will do to Giannis’ long-term fantasy value. He and Eric have only shared the court for 100 minutes so far this season and still Giannis has seen a significant usage decrease(4.5 percent) over that time. If the trend continues, it’ll make it that much harder for Giannis’ fairly astronomical price tags (on both FanDuel and DraftKings) to pay off. The “Greek Freak” remains one of the best bets in basketball for production in the peripheral categories. But it does seems like his days of posting a 30 percent-plus usage rate are over.
Value
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has played at least 27 minutes in four of his last five games, and his $4,000 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent. There’s virtually no downside with MKG at this price tag.
Fast Break
Harrison Barnes quietly has played some really good basketball of late:
While Barnes has a tough matchup today against the Bucks’ wing defenders, keep in mind he does have a 97 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
Robert Covington has an intriguing matchup today against the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors have been weak against wing players this season, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.69 for Covington. But any date with the Warriors ups the odds of a blowout. Covington doesn’t exactly devour playing minutes as it is, so there’s no doubt some risk here. Bottom line, though, is a potential for a sweet payoff courtesy of Covington’s stealing and blocking proclivities.
Power Forward
Stud
Blake Griffin has commanded a massive portion of the Clippers offense recently because of all their injuries, and he’s turned that usage into an average of 44.8 FanDuel points per game over his last three contests. Today’s game against the Hornets is on the road for the second leg of a back-to-back. Historically, Griffin has actually been better in those situations than with a day of rest:
He’ll be especially difficult to avoid on FanDuel, where his $8,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Values
Dario Saric has taken a clear back seat to Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid for the 76ers this season, posting a usage rate of just 17.5 percent. That said, he’s played at least 33 minutes in four of his last five games and has been priced down to $4,600 on FanDuel; in other words, at that rate he doesn’t necessarily need to play a huge role to provide value. Note also that he has a solid matchup against the Warriors, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.2 on FanDuel.
Derrick Favors has handled the majority of the center minutes since the injury to Gobert, and has been a solid contributor over that period. Today’s matchup with the Magic results in a paceD of +5.5 for the Jazz players, which is the second largest pace-up spot of the day. Favors does not exactly get any when it comes to his individual matchup today against Nikola Vucevic, who ranks 12th among centers in DRPM this season.
Fast Break
Maxi Kleber got the start last night for the Dallas Mavericks and turned in 27 minutes of the least inspired hoops we’ve seen in some time: zero points, three rebounds, a 6.7 percent usage rate and 3.25 fantasy points. Still, bargain big men getting that much court time have historically been excellent values:
He won’t be confused with DeMarcus Cousins anytime soon, but Kleber should at least bumble his way into a few more rebounds should he continue to play this much.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid has been underpriced by the DFS industry for basically his entire career. No so easy to make that case today at $10,000 on DraftKings and $11,000 on FanDuel. Still, we’ve yet to really see what kind of damage this guy can do with 30-plus minutes, and so far the results have been tantalizing. On a per minute basis, he’s been the most productive player among those on today’s slate – his average of 1.62 fantasy points per minute is greater than the average for Harden, Giannis, or to whomever else you’d like to compare him. So viewed that way, the notion of paying $10,000 for him on DraftKings doesn’t seem that farfetched.
He’s currently fourth in the league with a usage rate of 33.8 percent, and has a decent matchup today against the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors are a strong defensive team but they do play fast, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.74 for Embiid in this matchup.
Value
Willie Cauley-Stein played 31 minutes in his last game against the Blazers and responded with 42 FanDuel points. His bump in minutes came mostly at the expense of Zach Randolph, who saw just 14 in that game. There’s no way to know how the minutes will shake out moving forward, but it would make sense for the Kings to try to get their promising young big men more minutes as the season moves on. He’s one of the few centers who’s actually a better value on FanDuel, owning a Bargain Rating of 81 percent.
Fast Break
Marc Gasol is another Memphis player who could see a slight bump in production given the injury to Conley. He exploded for over 70 fantasy points in his last game, which makes him tough to play at his current salary, but he’s averaged roughly 43 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with Conley off the floor this season:
Al Horford has one of the top matchups of the day at the center position. He’s taking on the Atlanta Hawks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.46 on FanDuel, where he has a perfect 100 percent Consistency Rating over his last 12 contests.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
