The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Lamar Jackson at Buffalo Bills – $7,800 on DraftKings
DraftKings has combined all four games this weekend to create a very solid eight-team player pool. The top teams usually have the top QBs, and that is definitely true again this year, with some of the biggest stars in the sport ready to be under center this weekend. Lamar Jackson has the highest ceiling projection of the weekend in the projections from Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon, while he comes in with the second-highest ceiling projection in the projections from THE BLITZ. In an evenly-blended three-way aggregate, Jackson has the highest ceiling projection but only the third-highest median and floor projection.
There is a little more risk rolling with Jackson instead of Josh Allen or Jayden Daniels (more below). Jackson has the potential to post an incredibly high number, but we have also seen the Ravens rely more heavily on their running game and leave Jackson less work to do. There are definitely game scenarios for this weekend where he doesn’t have to carry the load, unlike Allen and Daniels, who have to do almost all the heavy lifting all the time.
What makes Jackson worth the risk, though, is his extremely high ceiling. He has posted over 29 DraftKings points in two of his last five games, including a monster game against the Giants when he racked up 37.1 DraftKings points while throwing for 290 yards and five touchdowns. He has multiple touchdown passes in seven straight games and has averaged 58.9 rushing yards per gam,e with two more rushing scores on top of that prolific passing output.
Jackson had 81 rushing yards and 23.1 DraftKings points last week in a win over the Steelers, and he had 24.6 DraftKings points when he faced the Bills earlier this season. He should be able to produce another solid game in the final matchup of the weekend, with the potential for a monster game that breaks the slate as well.
Top Value: Jayden Daniels at Detroit Lions – $7,000 on DraftKings
While he isn’t exactly cheap at $7,000, Daniels is lined to bring huge value since he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of any quarterback this weekend. Daniels actually has the highest median and floor projections in the aggregated projections as well, showing he’s relatively low-risk. Part of his reliability is that he won’t have any weather to deal with like some of Sunday’s QBs, and part of it is that he carries such a big part of the Commanders’ offensive workload.
Daniels had an impressive rookie season, averaging 21.8 DraftKings points per game, and he continued his run into the postseason last week against the Bucs. He finished with 22.32 DraftKings points while leading the Commanders to a come-from-behind, 23-20 victory with 268 passing yards, two passing scores, and 36 rushing yards.
Daniels has shown the ability to produce much higher rushing totals if the situation calls for it and had 127 rushing yards in a key Week 17 win over the Falcons in his last full game before the playoffs. He had over 35 DraftKings points in each of his last two full regular season contests, showing how high his ceiling can be.
The Lions were actually a pretty good matchup for QBs this season, allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. Daniels’ game situation is also helped since this is the only game this weekend indoors.
While knocking off the Lions at home seems like a long shot, even if he comes up short, it should be another great fantasy week for Daniels, and getting him at a lower price than Jackson and Allen makes him a very solid option to build your lineups around this weekend.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Saquon Barkley vs. Los Angeles Rams – $8,200 on DraftKings
Barkley has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at running back in the three-way aggregated projections this week, and he also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus.
He’ll be in a favorable matchup against the Rams, and if the weather turns sloppy or snowy, the Eagles could rely even more heavily on their workhorse running back. Last week, Barley had 25 carries for 119 yards against the Packers and finished with 17.3 DraftKings points, even though he didn’t find the end zone. All season, he has 15 touchdowns and has averaged 23.9 DraftKings points per game.
Barkley has topped 100 rushing yards in seven of his last eight games, including when he faced the Rams in Week 12. In that matchup, he galloped for 255 rushing yards and two touchdowns while adding four catches for 47 yards and finished with 49.2 DraftKings points.
The Rams’ defense has improved immensely since that matchup, but Barkley still has a very high ceiling for this rematch. He is worth building around as long as you can find other places to save salary.
Top Value: Justice Hill at Buffalo Bills – $4,800 on DraftKings
The star running backs are all solid options this weekend, but they’re also very expensive. While there are good values at receiver, there are also a couple of options to consider as bargain running backs as well. Austin Ekeler returned to a sizable role last week, and David Montgomery hopes to do the same on the other side of Saturday night’s matchup, but my favorite cheap option in the backfield is Justice Hill of the Ravens.
Hill has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all running backs under $5,000 and can really open up significant salary cap space. While he won’t be the feature back with Derrick Henry around, he does have a significant role as a receiving option.
Hill missed two weeks at the end of the regular season with a concussion, but he returned to play 39% of the Ravens’ offensive snaps last week. He totaled just 12 rushing yards on six carries against the Steelers, but his main contribution came as a receiver, where he hauled in all four of his targets for 13 yards and a touchdown.
During the regular season, Hill had four touchdowns and logged multiple receptions in six straight games before the contest in which he sustained the concussion. While he doesn’t have nearly as high a ceiling as the top running backs, he does have a good shot at returning value and is regularly involved. Especially if the Ravens have to rely on shorter passes due to the weather conditions, Hill could be an even bigger factor.
In his regular season game against the Bills, Hill had six catches on six targets for 78 yards and a touchdown while adding 18 rushing yards on his way to 21.6 DraftKings points. While it’s optimistic to expect a redo of that performance, it does show his upside and how involved the Ravens will try to keep him on Sunday.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Nico Collins at Kansas City Chiefs – $7,600 on DraftKings
As they look to knock off the Chiefs this week, the Texans will have to rely heavily once again on superstar receiver Nico Collins. In the aggregate projections, he has the second-highest ceiling projection of the wide receivers this week and the third-highest median and floor projections. Even though he’s more expensive than Amon-Ra St. Brown and Puka Nacua, I think he’ll be worth paying up for due to his reliable role as the focus of the offense and better weather against the Chiefs than Nacua may have to deal with against the Eagles.
Collins caught seven of his eight targets last week against the Chargers for 122 yards and a touchdown. It was his second straight game with a touchdown and gave him eight scores in his 13 games during the regular season and postseason. He has averaged an impressive 86.8 yards per game when healthy this year and is clearly the go-to option all over the field for C.J. Stroud.
If the Texans have to rally from behind against the Chiefs, they’ll have to be aggressive and take more shots to Collins. He caught 7-of-10 targets against Kansas City for 60 yards in their regular season matchup in Week 16, but he has an even higher ceiling in this rematch.
Last week, Collins was a beast against the Chargers and looked back to full strength after a mid-season hamstring injury. The Texans will need another huge game from him this week, so look for Stroud to send plenty of targets his way.
Top Value: Xavier Worthy vs. Houston Texans – $5,200 on DraftKings
On the other side of Saturday afternoon’s matchup, rookie Xavier Worthy stands out as an excellent play for the Chiefs. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in the aggregated projections, and Chris Raybon has him with the best Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers this week.
Worthy exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last three regular-season games before playing just one snap in the finale against the Broncos. He had over 19 DraftKings points in each of those three games and had 31 targets over those three games with 21 catches for 190 total yards.
One of those three games came against the Texans, and Worthy lit them up for seven catches, 65 yards, a touchdown, and 20.5 DraftKings points. The rookie had some consistency issues early in the season but settled in down the stretch with at least four catches in each of his last seven games.
Even with playoff-mode Travis Kelce, new-acquisition DeAndre Hopkins, and recently-recovered Hollywood Brown in the mix, Worthy remains the Chiefs home run threat, and coach Andy Reid will find ways to connect him and Patrick Mahomes for what should be another big game from Worthy.
If you need lower-cost options, Khalil Shakir, Dyami Brown, and John Metchie are other cheap plays who should bring good value, according to our projections.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce vs. Houston Texans – $5,000 on DraftKings
Although his season totals weren’t as consistent or as outlandish as some expected this year, Kelce did still manage to catch 97 passes for 823 yards and three touchdowns in 16 games for an average of 12.5 DraftKings points per game.
He had 8.0 DraftKings points on five catches for 30 yards in the Chiefs’ first matchup with the Texans, but he is a proven playoff performer and is sure to get plenty of targets this week in the rematch.
Kelce has the top ceiling, median, and floor projections in the aggregate, and he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus. He capped his regular season with 22.4 DraftKings points against the Steelers on Christmas Day, and the extra time off should help the veteran be at 100% for the start of this year’s playoff run. He isn’t low-cost or a sleeper, but sometimes it’s worth paying for reliable, playoff-tested options.
Top Value: Dallas Goedert vs. Los Angeles Rams – $3,900 on DraftKings
If you’re willing to go with a much higher-risk play at tight end, there are several factors that point to Goedert as a good option to consider, and he comes with a nice salary under $4,000. Last week, Goedert had the highlight play of the week, handing out multiple stiff-arms on his way to a touchdown.
He finished with four catches for 47 yards, a touchdown, and 14.7 DraftKings points, which was similar to his line in the regular-season finale when he hauled in four of six targets for 55 yards and 9.5 DraftKings points. Goedert played in that season finale when many starters rested since he was just returning from IR with a knee injury. He showed no limitations due to that last week, playing 92% of the team’s offensive snaps. However, Goedert did miss practice this week due to an illness. As long as it’s not a big issue, he’ll have good upside since he’s so regularly involved in the Eagles’ passing attack, but it is something to keep a close eye on. Goedert had at least three catches in nine of his 11 games this season and averaged 49.4 receiving yards per game.
If Godert is limited or out, Grant Calcaterra would become a very interesting punt play at the position since he showed he is capable of filling in while Godert was out. Whichever tight end gets to take on the Rams will be in a favorable matchup since the Rams allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends this season. Tight ends have averaged 6.3 catches for 66.6 yards against them in 18 games during the regular season and postseason and have scored eight touchdowns, including four in their last three games.