The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Jacob Misiorowski (R) $12,000 Milwaukee Brewers (-220) vs. New York Mets
It will be interesting to see how the first-place Brewers handle their young ace coming out of the All-Star Break. Misiorowski has been the best pitcher in baseball this season but seemed to be slowing down just a touch, with Milwaukee stretching out his starts to about one every 7 days instead of the usual 5. That’s not unusual for a young pitcher – especially one who averages more than 100 mph on his fastball and over 6 innings per start – but given the Brewers’ position in the standings, it would make sense for an even shorter leash going forward.
That hasn’t mattered for DFS yet, as Misiorowski has just 1 start of less than 6 innings since May 1st (and scored 26 DraftKings points in that outing thanks to 10 strikeouts). However, if they do start shortening his outings, it’s going to be hard to pay off $12,000 price tags. All of that said, it’s probably not a concern tonight, as he makes his first start in 13 days.
Misiorowski’s 39.6% strikeout rate and 1.62 ERA are obviously elite and both more or less backed up by his underlying numbers. The Mets are a bottom-five team in wRC+ against righties and about average in strikeout rate, so nothing about the matchup should deter you from clicking on Misiorowski. He also clearly has the best Vegas data on the slate, as both the heaviest favorite and the pitcher with the lowest opponent team total.
There are a ton of strong options on this 14-game slate, which makes finding the $12,000 salary a bit trickier. However, that also keeps his ownership down, making him an elite tournament option if you can fit him in your lineup. He leads all pitchers in median and ceiling projection by a comfortable margin.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Ryan Weathers (L) $7,700 New York Yankees (-118) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The top Pts/Sal option on the slate is another five-figure pitcher, but in the interest of saving some salary for Misiorowski, I’m considering the runner-up in that category as my favorite value option on Monday.
That’s Ryan Weathers, who has been a steady option for the Yankees this season. His 4.15 ERA and 26.9% strikeout rate don’t exactly jump off the page, but he’s averaging about 6 innings per start. Crucially, he’s also $1,500 cheaper on DraftKings than any other pitcher whose opponent is implied for less than 4 runs.
The matchup with Pittsburgh also helps him in the upside department. The Pirates have the third-highest strikeout rate against lefties this season, while performing as a slightly below-average offense in terms of run production. Paired with their relatively low total, that points to a very strong floor/ceiling combination for Weathers at his price tag.
He doesn’t exactly make it easy to afford Misiorowski, but he makes it possible, which could be the key to the slate. That makes him an excellent tournament option, and he’s obviously strong in cash games as well.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Jacob deGrom (R) $10,000 Texas Rangers (-172) vs. Chicago White Sox
The Pts/Sal leader is deGrom, who also comes in second (albeit by a wide margin) in median and ceiling projection to Misiorowski, despite a $2,000 discount. Both his numbers (30%+ strikeout rate and 3.49 ERA) and the matchup (Chicago strikes out at a top-five rate against righties but has an above-average wRC+) give him a somewhat wide range of outcomes, though the elite Park Factors for pitchers in Texas make the better end of that range more likely.
George Kirby (R) $9,400 Seattle Mariners (-153) vs. Cincinnati Reds
The only stadium with more favorable park factors for pitchers than Texas is Seattle, where starter Kirby has a career ERA 0.7 runs lower than on the road. He’s facing a Cincinnati team coming from one of the better hitters’ parks in baseball and still ranks second-to-last in wRC+ against righties. They also have the second-highest strikeout rate, providing a solid all-around boost for Kirby. He’s not the most exciting pick with his relatively low strikeout rate, but at $9,400, he might be worth taking a shot on in this matchup.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Washington Nationals:
The Nationals have emerged from the All-Star break with back-to-back road series in extremely favorable hitters’ parks. They played the A’s in Sacramento over the weekend and put up a total of 29 runs in 3 games (23 of them came in one game, but still) and now travel to Colorado to take on the Rockies.
The good news doesn’t stop there. They’re facing southpaw Kyle Freeland ($5,000), who has an ERA over 7 on the season and an xERA of 5.56, which suggests his struggles aren’t just due to his home ballpark. The Nationals are also the best team in baseball against left-handed pitching by wRC+. As an added bonus, they lead the league in stolen bases both against lefties and overall.
They’re very expensive, with an average price north of $5,300 for this full stack. There’s an argument for fading CJ Abrams since he doesn’t hit lefties well – the other lefty in this stack, James Wood, has no problem against southpaws – though who knows how long Freeland will last. It’s probably worth it to do so just to leave salary for pitchers, though, especially with some other strong shortstop options on the slate.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Kevin McGonigle 3B/SS ($4,500) Detroit Tigers at Chicago Cubs (Jameson Taillon)
My favorite shortstop to switch from Abrams to is the Tigers’ rookie McGonigle. He’s the odds-on favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year, with an .815 OPS, 11 stolen bases, and (not that it matters for DFS) +2.7 defensive WAR produced through 96 games played.
There are 2 big reasons to be on McGonigle, and the Tigers in general, tonight. The first is the weather. Per Weather Edge, the Windy City is blessing hitters with a 60% boost to home runs and a 30% boost to overall scoring tonight, and that’s over a fairly robust 60-game sample size.
The other big reason is the matchup with Jameson Taillon ($6,900). He’s struggled heavily against left-handed hitters this season, as we can see easily in PlateIQ:
The Tigers are implied for 6 runs, a good chunk of which should come from their lefties – McGonigle being the best among them. He’s projecting for nearly as much scoring as Abrams at almost $2,000 less, making him an elite choice today.
Kyle Karros 3B ($3,600) Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals (Andrew Alvarez)
We’ve talked about the A side of the two standout games so far, but the better values largely belong to the underdogs. The Rockies aren’t a great offense by any stretch, but they have a winnable matchup against Alvarez ($5,700), a lefty part-time starter with a 4.04 ERA.
The Rockies are the worst team in baseball against southpaws but have improved from “worst by a mile” to “tied for worst” over the last 6 or so weeks. Karros is hitting .282 against lefties and is reasonably cheap for his #2 spot in the lineup, which makes him my preferred Rockies one-off on a day where salary is hard to come by.
Ian Happ OF ($4,300) Chicago Cubs vs. Detroit Tigers (Jack Flaherty)
Detroit starter Flaherty ($7,300) has been wildly inconsistent this year. He’s had extended stretches of getting shelled mixed in with solid performances as he struggles to regain the form he had in his first stint as a Tiger.
What’s concerning is that he has a career-low HR/FB rate of 8.3% and a career-high fly-ball rate of 48.6% this year. The former tends to regress to the mean, while the latter is within the pitcher’s control. There could be a ton of negative regression today with strong wind blowing out at Wrigley Field.
You can’t really go wrong with any of the Cubs’ power hitters in that scenario, but Happ is my favorite price-considered option. He’s gone yard 17 times this year (second most on the team) but is far cheaper than Pete Crow-Armstrong ($6,500), who is also a great play but much harder to fit in lineups.
Interested in more MLB action? Check out Polymarket and use our Polymarket promo code.
Pictured: Jacob Misiorowski
Photo Credit: Imagn
