NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle for Sunday’s Wild Card Round

Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.

This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on these games into lineups.

Each week I’ll go over my favorite DFS angle for the given week and go over some of our Lineup Optimizer settings that are worth considering.

Now, let’s get to it!

My Favorite Wild Card Round NFL DFS Angle

An interesting thing has happened over the last several weeks in Minnesota and seems to have gone mostly unnoticed. Perhaps it’s just small sample noise, but it appears that KJ Osborn has overtaken Adam Thielen as the Vikings WR2 as the season has come to a close.

Over the last four weeks, Osborn has averaged 8.25 targets to Thielen’s 4.0. Despite this fact, Thielen is projecting for more fantasy points and projected ownership across the industry. At what looks like sub-10 % ownership, Osborn is set up as a really nice GPP play as he provides a low-owned pivot from within the slate’s most popular and highest-totaled game.

Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider

Below are the rules to consider for Sunday. For more context on optimizer rules or the Showdown format in general, check out my NFL Showdown Primer.

General

Minimum salary cap: 99.6%. Leaving more than this causes you to lose significant win equity.

Flex positions: WR, RB

Player Correlations

Optimal tournament construction includes stacking your quarterback with at least one, but usually two, pass-catcher(s) from the same team and at least one pass-catcher from the opposing team.

A mobile quarterback with a big rushing game is more likely to only need one teammate paired. These settings can be accomplished through rules in the “Position” tab or through the Player Correlations tab for more control.

You typically want to avoid pairings like Justin Jefferson with Dalvin Cook in GPPs to ensure your ceiling isn’t capped; however, I won’t be making such groupings with just 6 teams to choose from.

Giants receivers are going to show up a lot in optimizers. As such, I would make a rule to max 2 Giants receivers unless paired with Daniel Jones.

When lineups include ALL of Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase, include Joe Burrow. There is virtually no way for both of these expensive receivers to hit the optimal lineup without Burrow also being included

Player Groups

At most one of Devin Singletary and James Cook