This article is one in a series that uses the FantasyLabs Tools to build daily fantasy scouting reports for the NBA’s brightest stars.
Carmelo Anthony has had an up-and-down last six months. After winning his record third Olympic gold medal, he was expected to help lead the Knicks into playoff contention. Instead, the Knicks are 11 games below .500 and Anthony has been the league’s most discussed trade candidate.
Things could change before March 1st, but for the time being it looks like Melo will continue to play for the Knicks. Lately, this actually hasn’t always been a bad thing. As of February 19th, Melo had scored 25-plus points in five consecutive games. Sure, the Knicks have not changed their losing ways, but we’re here for DFS and that makes Melo more relevant than ever. While his 38.17 DK points per game mark this season is a three-year low, his season-long average +2.9 Plus/Minus is a three-year high.
Statistical Breakdown
The above chart does a great job at showing how Melo’s game has changed over the past three seasons. After the Knicks went 10-30 during Melo’s 40-game season in 2014, he went about trying to become a more complete player. The results were evident in 2015, as he averaged a career-high 4.2 assists per game, as well as 7.7 rebounds per game – the second-highest mark of his career. The problem for Melo was his average of 21.8 points per game, which marked his lowest average since his second year in the league. The Knicks played better, going 32-40 during Melo’s 72 starts, but the team success wasn’t enough to sustain Melo’s new style of play. This season, he’s averaged just 2.9 assists and 6.0 rebounds per game — averages that would rank as his worst during his seven seasons in New York. Records be damned, this season Melo is back to being a score-first forward.
Trends
Home/Away
Melo has consistently performed better at Madison Square Garden during his last three seasons:
Per our Trends tool, he’s posted a +3.1 Plus/Minus with 64 percent Consistency and has averaged 41.38 DK points at home over the past three seasons. Melo has consistently struggled on the road and this issue has become even more pronounced this season:
Melo has become a liability away from Madison Square Garden. For a player whose effort seems to change on any given night, it’s not surprising to see that he performs better under the bright lights of MSG. Target Melo at home and be wary about owning him anywhere else.
Big Dog
Melo has had fairly even favorite/dog splits over the past three seasons, but he’s continued to struggle against better competition. The below chart demonstrates his brutal performance in games that the Knicks are eight-plus point underdogs:
The 23-game sample isn’t huge, but it’s clear Melo has struggled in these situations. He’s surpassed his implied total during just seven of the 23 games and has averaged a -5.28 Plus/Minus over that span. Surprisingly, Melo’s ownership has been higher than normal during these sub-optimal situations.
The Knicks aren’t very good, so it makes sense that their best player isn’t very good as a large underdog. Will the same hold true when we look at how Melo has performed against elite opponents?
Opponent Win Percentage
Put simply: yes.
Melo has consistently struggled against elite competition over the past three seasons, fitting in with our previous trend that broke down his struggles as a large underdog. We’ve established that Melo is great at home, but he struggles on the road and against solid competition. This implies that he probably plays pretty well against poor opponents:
This turns out to be the case. Melo has consistently exceeded his implied point totals against opponents with a win percentage of 40 percent or worse, though his ownership has been higher in these situations as well. It can be offensive to call someone a frontrunner, but in this case it’s warranted.
RULING: Melo is a frontrunner.
Back-to-Backs
We’ve established that Melo is a shell of himself away from MSG, and this point is once again reflected when we look at how he’s performed in B2Bs:
Melo has played great during home B2Bs (albeit he’s had only 10 of those instances during the past three seasons), but he’s been a train wreck on the back end of a road B2B. His ownership has been high for both situations, but it’s clear he should be targeted only at home on the back end of a B2B.
Salary Sweet Spot
Anthony’s DK salary has remained relatively low all season, as he’s reached a high of $8,000 and a low of $7,100. His average of 38.17 DK points per game implies he should be priced at $8,100. Melo has been priced under $8,000 since the end of January and he’s continued to outplay his salary-based expectations. Overall, he’s averaged 44.35 DK points over his last five games.
Melo’s salary has fluctuated a bit more on FanDuel this season, as he’s reached a low of $7,300 and a high of $8,500. He’s averaged 35.49 FD points per game this season, which implies he should be priced at $8,600. Melo hasn’t been priced over $8,100 since the first of February, making him also underpriced on FD.
On/Off
Melo is one of the most ball-dominant scorers in the NBA. His average of 5.6 isolation possessions per game ranks third among all players, per NBA.com. Accordingly, no teammates that play over 15 minutes per game have benefited from Melo being on the court:
When Melo sits, ball-dominant point guard Derrick Rose takes over as the team’s featured option. Franchise player Kristaps Porzingis, along with backup point guard Brandon Jennings, also sees an uptick in usage and value with Anthony on the bench:
Joakim Noah has provided the most value with Melo on the bench, though he’s been limited during recent weeks and has played more than 20 minutes during just one of his last seven games.
With Rose taking over when Melo leaves the court, it’s not surprising to see Melo take over once Rose leaves the court:
Melo has also taken it upon himself to take over when Porzingis sits:
Long story short: Melo and Rose are carrying the Knicks straight to the lottery, one isolation jumper at a time.
Stacking the Knicks
Below is the average production for the Knicks during Anthony’s 10 best fantasy performances of the past two seasons, first on FanDuel and then on DraftKings.
FanDuel
DraftKings
The results are fairly straightforward. Unsurprisingly, Melo doesn’t mesh well with Porzingis or Rose, as both have supplied very little value during Melo’s top-10 fantasy performances of the past three seasons. This leaves Noah, Jennings, Courtney Lee, and Mindaugas Kuzminskas as the only Knicks who have consistently balled out during Melo’s best DFS performances.
Kuzminskas averages fewer than 15 minutes per game and Noah has played more than 20 minutes during just one of his last seven games. Lee and Jennings are both averaging over 25 minutes per game this season and represent the best stacks to pair with Melo. Due to Rose’s tendency to dominate usage, stacking Melo with Jennings or Lee during games that Rose misses will increase the usage and value of both players. Jennings and Lee have both played well this season, as they’ve averaged 21.22 and 20.11 DK points per game through the All-Star break, respectively.
Conclusion
Melo’s career in New York hasn’t gone according to plan, but he’s still playing 34 minutes per game and attempting over 20 field goals per 36 minutes. He’s best utilized as a favorite, at home, and against inferior opponents, as Melo has historically struggled as an underdog, away from Madison Square Garden, and against elite opponents.
The presence of Rose has not only impacted Melo, but also Lee and Jennings – the two highest-correlated Knicks to stack with Melo. While Melo’s brand of ‘hero ball’ doesn’t necessarily require a stack on most nights, targeting him with Lee or Jennings during games that Rose misses could lead to more usage and value for all parties involved. That is, of course, assuming Melo is still a New York Knick by this time next week.
