Charles Schwab Challenge: Top PGA DFS Picks, Values, and Sleepers for Large-Field Tournaments on DraftKings

The PGA TOUR returns to a very familiar layout this week in Fort Worth, Texas. Colonial Country Club has hosted an invitational event for 80 years and is the PGA TOUR’s longest-running host venue for a non-major tournament. After spending last week at TPC Craig Ranch, the PGA TOUR shifts to the other side of the Metroplex for this week’s Charles Schwab Challenge.

The course had a major renovation before the 2024 tournament, so the last two years of course history are especially relevant. The course is a tough test of positional golf that rewards accuracy and shot-making over raw power. The tight fairways and small greens are demanding tee to green, and the Bentgrass greens are typically fast and tough to hold. For more info on the field, the format, and the challenge at Colonial Country Club, check out this First Look from RotoGrinders.

Especially in large-field tournaments, you’ll want to make sure to target players who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance suggests. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for tournament success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.

Usually, I rely heavily on the Strokes Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean toward players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week to week than a hot putter.

Since these are tournament picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.

No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for tournament play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.

As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.

Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.

Editor’s note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.

High-Priced PGA DFS Picks

Ludvig Aberg, $10,500

Ludvig Aberg is the betting favorite this week and has the best form and course fit in the field. The one major downside to Aberg as an anchor for your DFS lineups is that he has not played this course competitively before. The Texas Tech product is familiar with the style of golf and has all the shots required to excel, but he hasn’t competed in the Charles Schwab Challenge until this year.

Aberg has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in the FantasyLabs models, and he also has an extremely high Perfect% over 40%, meaning he is in over 40% of perfect lineups in our thousands of sims. Since his ownership projection is much lower than his Perfect%, he has the highest SimLeverage in the field. He also matches the most Pro Trends of any golfer in the field with 10, while only two other golfers match more than 5.

He’s going to be popular, but his chances of a high finish are strong enough that he’s worth eating some chalk and finding other spots to differentiate your lineup.

Coming into his Colonial debut, Aberg leads the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and Total Strokes Gained over the last three months. His strong shot-making has fueled an impressive hot streak with eight straight top-21 finishes, including his T5 with a near-miss at THE PLAYERS, a T4 at the RBC Heritage, and a T4 at the PGA Championship in his most recent start.

While he hasn’t won yet this season, Aberg’s consistent production has kept him near the top of the leaderboards. He definitely has the upside to contend this week and is the strongest pay-up play to build around as an anchor for DFS lineups in both cash games and tournament formats.

J.J. Spaun $9,200

With a salary just over $9,000, J.J. Spaun has the second-highest SimLeverage in the field. Spaun is a nice contrarian play at this price with an ownership projection barely over 10%. He already won once this season, claiming the Valero Texas Open, and he’ll be looking to claim another Texas title this week.

He was on a nice run before missing the cut at the PGA Championship, and he’ll look to get back in form this week at Colonial. In his career, he had struggled at the venue until last season, when he posted a strong T6 in his buildup to winning the U.S. Open. He gained strokes in every major category in that strong showing last year, especially excelling in accuracy and approach.

Recently, Spaun’s results have been extremely boom-or-bust. He missed the cut in three of his last eight events but finished in the top 25 every time he made the weekend, including his win at TPC San Antonio, a T5 at the Truist Championship, and a T25 at THE PLAYERS.

Spaun ranks second in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over the last three months, behind only Aberg. His accuracy off the tee has been exceptional, and his putter has been his only inconsistency. He lost strokes putting whenever he missed the cut during his recent run but gained strokes putting when he posted his best results.

His volatility is keeping him from being a popular play this week, but the upside he brings is high enough that he’s an excellent tournament play at Colonial. He was in my picks for the PGA Championship, where he burned us, but I’m going back for another week of Spaun since I like his chances to have a bounce-back week at Colonial.

Now available: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks