Oh, look, another Denver Broncos primetime game! It is safe to say this decision backfired on the NFL schedule-makers, as the Broncos have averaged only 15 points per game through five weeks, which is the lowest in the league. Russell Wilson is certainly not cooking this season, or likely anytime soon.
Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers will make this game appealing to the eye as they have scored 30 or more points in back-to-back games. This Monday Night Football total sits at 45.5 points, with the Chargers favored by 4.5 points at home. Let’s see if Wilson can keep up with this Charger’s quick-scoring offense.
Picking a parlay for tonight’s game is super easy with the ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator, which leads to plus-expected value wagers for this primetime showdown.
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Chargers vs. Broncos Same Game Parlay Picks
For those who aren’t familiar, ScoresAndOdds recently released a new tool to set up same-game parlays on various sportsbooks called Parlay IQ.
This simple-to-use tool shows which bets are positive expected value (+EV) in any game based on their thousands of game simulations.
If you are building a same-game parlay, the Parlay IQ tool will calculate the expected win rate as you add more wagers to your bet slip. It then compares the projected odds to the actual odds on FanDuel, identifying how much value you’re getting on each wager.
Now, let’s get into what I am targeting tonight.
Austin Ekeler Anytime Touchdown
Leading off this same-game parlay is Austin Ekeler to score an anytime touchdown. After a slow start to the season, Ekeler has flourished in the last two games. He has five total touchdowns during that stretch, with 233 rushing yards and 10 receptions. This season Ekeler is averaging a career-high 18.4 touches per game. With that much usage, it is tough for Ekeler to fail, even going against this tough Broncos defense.
Reaching the end zone is nothing new for Ekeler. In each of his last four games against the Broncos, Ekeler has scored a touchdown. Three of those four touchdowns have been receiving. Ekeler has over 50 receiving yards against the Broncos in four of his last five games. Getting Ekeler into space has been extremely important for this Chargers offense, so expect more of the same again tonight.
With Keenan Allen doubtful to play again this week, Ekeler’s target share will continue to increase. He has a 16.5% target share this season, which ranks second on the team. It’s not just through the air where Ekeler can dominate, though. Last week he ran for 173 yards against the Browns on only 16 carries. It was the first time in his career that Ekeler averaged double-digit yards per carry. This dual-threat running back has a great chance to hit pay dirt.
Mike Williams Over 69.5 Receiving Yards
Mike Williams is another Chargers skill player who should have a big game with Allen doubtful. The 2017 first-round pick has put together back-to-back games with over 100 receiving yards. Williams’ boom-or-bust nature isn’t great for player props, but this line feels too low with Allen unlikely to play. In three of his five games this season, Williams has topped 110 yards. However, he’s averaged 12.5 receiving yards per game in his two misses.
In seven games without Allen in the lineup, Williams has averaged 86.4 receiving yards on nine targets per game. That is nearly double his average of 49.3 per game with Allen. The Broncos will likely send a few double teams his way throughout the game, but Williams is easily the top target for quarterback Justin Herbert. He has a team-high 22% target share, averaging 12 targets per game in the last two games.
Taking the over on the top wide receiver in a Herbert-led offense seems like an obvious decision. There is no doubt the Broncos’ defense has looked great. They rank second in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, but they have played the Seahawks, Texans, 49ers, Raiders, and Colts. This is an entirely different test on the road against one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Ultimately, it’s tough to see this Broncos’ defense being able to slow down Williams on the outside completely.
Denver Broncos Team Total Under 20.5 Points
My favorite bet in this same-game parlay is the team total under for the Broncos at 20.5 points. This Broncos offense looks lost with Russell Wilson under center right now. In the Broncos’ two wins this season, they scored 16 and 11 points. The only time they’ve scored over 20 points was in a 32-23 loss against the Raiders two weeks ago. They are 4.5-point road underdogs against a Chargers defense that ranks 13th in DVOA.
With running back Javonte Williams out for the year and Melvin Gordon questionable to play tonight, this Broncos offense will need Wilson to deliver. Wilson only has three interceptions this season, so it’s not like he is turning the ball over at an exorbitant rate. However, he simply isn’t producing in the passing game. Through the first five weeks, Wilson has posted a career-low in completion percentage, QBR, and quarterback rating.
Broncos wide receivers Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy are great weapons, but Wilson has to get them the ball downfield because this team has one of the worst red-zone offenses in the league. They have scored a touchdown in the red zone at a league-low 21.4% rate, and Wilson’s completion rate drops to 48.3% when passing inside the 20-yard line. Fading the Broncos’ offense once again in primetime is the side to be on for this same-game parlay.
The screenshot above is the bet slip on ScoresAndOdds. The screenshot below is the bet slip on FanDuel, after clicking the “Place Bets” shortcut:
Export Bet Slip to FanDuel
Based on their simulations, Parlay IQ places the true odds on this parlay at +426, but FanDuel is offering +563. That’s a good bit of value for this three-leg parlay.
Happy sweating, and good luck!
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