Best Ball drafts have been going on for quite some time, but we’ve seen quite a bit of moving and shaking on the ADP front since April’s NFL draft. In news that should surprise nobody, the results of the actual draft have shifted Best Ball strategy considerably over the past month.
Which players have seen their ADP shift the most since draft day?
Best Ball ADP Risers Since the NFL Draft
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Yes, Ezekiel Elliott is back in our lives. After a yearlong stint in Foxborough, Zeke is back in Dallas. The Cowboys let Elliott walk last offseason so they could hand the keys to the backfield over to Tony Pollard. In the end, that didn’t go so well.
Pollard is now in Tennessee, where he’ll compete with Tyjae Spears for carries. Dallas inked Elliott to a 1-year deal to return on April 30, just a few days after the draft. In a fairly wild turn of events, there’s now a decent chance Zeke will not only make the Cowboys’ roster out of camp, but he could start the season atop the team’s depth chart at running back.
Dallas didn’t use their draft capital to address the hole at running back. So, the only other RBs currently on the roster are Rico Dowdle, Deuce Vaughn, and Royce Freeman. Dowdle showed occasional promise as Pollard’s primary backup last season, but Vaughn isn’t anything more than a Darren Sproles clone who could see the field in passing situations or on gadget plays. Meanwhile, Freeman is an NFL journeyman.
Elliott’s ADP before the draft was coming in around 206th overall. These days, his average ADP is a shade under 130 in Best Ball drafts.
Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Selecting rookies in Best Ball before the actual draft was a crapshoot. So it’s not a huge surprise to see several NFL newcomers on the list of ADP risers and fallers over the past month. Now that we have more clarity on what their roles might look like, we can plan and draft accordingly.
The Chiefs nabbed Xavier Worthy with the 28th overall pick in April. The speedster enjoyed a productive 3-year career at Texas, and he landed in one of the best possible spots with the 2-time reigning Super Bowl champs and the best quarterback in the NFL. The Chiefs have been the league’s most explosive offense during Patrick Mahomes’ tenure, and they’re not really showing any signs of slowing down as long as Mahomes is at the helm.
Worthy’s ADP has improved considerably since the draft, but it’s still a bit curious. It’s not like Patrick Mahomes is lacking weaponry. In Kansas City, Worthy will have to contend with the likes of Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and fellow first-year Chief Marquise Brown. Rice could be staring at a league suspension due to his off-the-field shenanigans this offseason, but it’s still worth wondering how many targets will be left for Worthy as a rookie.
Regardless, Worthy’s stock is on the rise. His pre-draft ADP was 93. Now, he’s coming off the board around 60th overall.
DJ Chark, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
It’s been a few years since DJ Chark was a consistent fantasy producer. He burst onto the scene with over 1,000 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns in his 2nd NFL season as a member of the Jaguars, but that was 5 years ago now. In the 4 years since, Chark has totaled 15 receiving TDs with just under 1,900 receiving yards with Jacksonville, Detroit, and Carolina.
Chark inked a free-agent contract with the Chargers this offseason. He’s still only 27, but it’s interesting to see him generate some buzz despite his relative lack of production in recent seasons.
We can attribute his rise to the Chargers’ obvious lack of talent in the receiving corps. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are gone. The Bolts picked up Ladd McConkey in the draft, while they’re hoping last year’s first-rounder Quentin Johnston can take strides following a dismal rookie campaign. Josh Palmer and Derrius Davis are the only other viable receivers on the roster, while the team’s new tight ends are Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst.
This is a bit of a shot in the dark, but drafters are banking on the possibility of Chark playing his way into a starting role on a team with Justin Herbert entrenched as the QB1. Chark’s pre-draft ADP was about 240, but his current ADP is around 207.
Best Ball Fallers
Michael Mayer, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
This one doesn’t require much explanation. The Raiders used a 2nd-round pick on former Notre Dame standout Michael Mayer in last year’s draft. We can attribute some of his first-year struggles to Vegas’ dismal QB play, but the team was apparently supremely underwhelmed with his effort. Mayer scuffled his way to 27 catches for 304 yards and a couple of touchdowns in 14 games as a rookie.
One year’s worth of games doesn’t seem like a big enough sample to completely abandon hope that the 22-year-old can eventually develop into a legitimate contributor, but the Raiders showed little patience in April. With the 13th pick in this year’s draft, Las Vegas grabbed the top TE prospect on the board in Georgia’s Brock Bowers.
There’s no telling how things will shake out in the preseason, but it’s safe to assume that Bowers will have the inside track to a starting role as a rookie. With Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers still in the mix, that doesn’t leave a whole lot of targets for Mayer to scoop up. Barring injury to Bowers, Mayer will begin the year as a backup.
Mayer was coming off the board in Best Ball drafts around pick 156 before the draft. His current ADP is a whopping 58 spots worse, at 215 on average.
Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers
Chuba Hubbard finished last season as the Panthers’ leading rusher, but that wasn’t a lot to write home about. Hubbard topped 900 yards on 238 carries, which comes out to an average of fewer than 4 yards per carry. He took over as the starter in the middle of the season after Miles Sanders’ well-documented struggles to establish himself as the lead back.
Hubbard is still on the Panthers’ roster heading into 2024, but the team drafted his apparent replacement in April. Carolina made ex-Texas standout Jonathan Brooks the first running back off the board with the 46th overall pick. No other RB went before Trey Benson in the 3rd round, so it’s safe to say the Panthers have high hopes for Brooks.
Running backs don’t typically have long shelf lives, so it’s safe to assume Carolina will throw Brooks into the fire right away. That likely spells doom for Hubbard’s viability in Best Ball drafts unless Brooks eventually goes down with an injury. It’s never a bad idea to draft a starter’s handcuff in the later rounds, but Hubbard is hardly the only other RB on the roster. Sanders is still here, while Carolina also added veteran Rashaad Penny in free agency.
Hubbard’s ADP was just under 130 before the draft. His current ADP is 42 spots worse, all the way down to 172. In case you’re wondering, Brooks’ ADP is around No. 88 overall.
James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals
James Conner was one of the few bright spots for the Cardinals’ offense a season ago. The veteran battled a few injuries early in the season but wound up topping 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his NFL career. Conner also averaged a career-high 5 yards per carry and totaled 7 rushing touchdowns.
The Cardinals rewarded the 29-year-old for his efforts by drafting his heir apparent in the 3rd round. Arizona made Trey Benson the second running back off the board behind Brooks, which instantly sent Conner’s ADP tumbling. Conner does have quite a bit of mileage on his legs, and Michael Carter and Emari Demercado weren’t exactly proven commodities behind Conner on the pre-draft depth chart.
Conner should still begin the season as the Cardinals’ starter, but it’s likely just a matter of time until Benson seizes the role. Prospective Best Ball managers are certainly concerned, as Conner’s post-draft ADP of 96 is about 20 spots lower than his pre-draft ADP of 76.
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