In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Top NFL DFS Quarterback Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are three quarterbacks near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Jalen Hurts
- Joe Burrow
- Geno Smith
We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks.
Top Model NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Jalen Hurts ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel): Philadelphia Eagles (-7) at New York Giants (45 total)
Jalen Hurts had somewhat of a midseason “slump” for his standards but has now turned it around. He has 25.2, 32.82, and 37.4 DraftKings points in the past three weeks. Hurts’ resurgence in Weeks 11-12 was mostly from his legs, but he shredded Tennessee with his arm last week. Hurts completed 74.4% of his passes 380 yards and three touchdowns while running five times for merely 12 yards but punching in a rushing touchdown.
Hurts can get it done multiple ways, which is always nice to have in fantasy football. One aspect of his matchup could be difficult one week, but he’ll use another area to rack up the fantasy points. This week, Hurts will have to handle the blitz. The Giants are blitzing on a league-high 45.5% of passing plays.
Teams have tried to blitz Hurts this year, as he’s been blitzed on a third of his dropbacks. He’s completing 62.6% of his passes for 7.2 yards per attempt, with seven passing touchdowns to one interception against the blitz. His average depth of target goes from 8.8 yards to 6.6 yards when blitzed.
New York’s pressure could open up some running lanes, as mobile quarterbacks have put up some yards against the Giants this year. Justin Fields and Lamar Jackson ran for 52 and 77 yards, respectively. Hurts has 24+ DraftKings points in eight of twelve games on the year, so he’s a pretty good bet to put up a great performance.
Hurts having multiple avenues to access his ceiling makes it no surprise that he’s the top quarterback in our Tournament Model.
Joe Burrow ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (-6) vs. Cleveland Browns (47 total)
Joe Burrow came to play last week in the marquee matchup of Week 13 against Kansas City. He completed 25 of 31 passes for 286 yards and two touchdowns. He also had some uncharacteristic production with his legs, carrying the ball 11 times for 46 yards and a touchdown. It was Burrow’s fourth game of 30+ DraftKings points on the year and his second in three weeks.
He’s been hot for a while now, as Burrow has 16 passing touchdowns to just three interceptions in the past seven games. Burrow, surprisingly is 0-4 in his career against the Browns, but their defense doesn’t boast anything to be too afraid of. They have held up fairly well but have shown weakness at times. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 285 yards and three touchdowns a few weeks ago.
Burrow was held in check against Cleveland a few weeks ago, throwing for just 6.6 yards per attempt and being sacked five times. He managed just 15.48 DraftKings points on the night, which was his lowest total of the year. It was Cincinnati’s first game without Ja’Marr Chase this year, so it was reasonable that they would have a tough time adjusting.
He leads the position in Projected Plus/Minus while being tied at the top in Points/Salary.
Burrow is the top quarterback in our Cash Game Model and Sean Koerner’s Pro Model.
Geno Smith ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel): Seattle Seahawks (-4) vs. Carolina Panthers (43.5 total)
Geno Smith has rounded into form as of late, throwing for 275, 275, 328, and 367 yards, to go along with nine touchdowns in the past four weeks. He’s thrown for at least 8.0 yards per attempt in each of the past four games and has thrown for multiple touchdowns in six straight. His 27.98 DraftKings-point performance last week was his second-highest of the season, marking his seventh game above 20 DraftKings points.
Carolina is surprisingly a stingier defense than public perception. They’re 14th in DraftKings points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, ninth in passing fantasy points allowed per attempt, sixth in yards per attempt, and 10th in touchdown rate. Smith’s performance this year has put him on the radar each week, regardless of the matchup.
He is second of all quarterbacks in Projected Plus/Minus and tied for the lead in Points/Salary. This matchup with Carolina doesn’t have the highest total, but the majority of the games on the main slate have low-point totals. The Seahawks offense is certainly capable of putting up a big score, which is attractive in a week where scoring could be at a premium.
He’s the top quarterback in Chris Raybon’s Pro Model this week.
Other Notable NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Patrick Mahomes ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) at Denver Broncos (43.5 total)
Patrick Mahomes frankly underperformed last week in a marquee matchup, throwing merely 223 yards and a touchdown and running in another en route to 19.82 DraftKings points. It was his third-lowest performance of the season and his first time under 20 DraftKings points since Week 3. I guess the Bengals just have Mahomes’ number.
The good news is that Mahomes doesn’t have to play Cincinnati this week. The bad news is that his matchup is with Denver. The Broncos have given up the second-fewest DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks, and they stymied Mahomes last year. He threw for merely 6.3 and 6.1 yards per attempt in his two games against Denver last year. The matchup isn’t impossible, as Derek Carr did put up 307 yards and two touchdowns against Denver just a few weeks ago.
Dak Prescott ($6,500 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): Dallas Cowboys (-16.5) vs. Houston Texans (44.5 total)
Dak Prescott wasn’t required to do much in last week’s rout of the Indianapolis Colts but was able to put up 170 yards and three touchdowns. We haven’t really seen Prescott explode yet this year, as he has one game above 21.2 DraftKings points, with 26.4 in Week 8 against Chicago. He’s thrown multiple touchdown passes in five straight games, and he should be able to make it six against Houston.
The Texans are allowing 7.5 yards per pass attempt and 12.3 yards per completion, both ranking in the bottom six in the league. Houston has not faced a lot of volume this season, which limits opposing quarterbacks upside. If Houston is able to keep this game close, Prescott should be able to carve up this defense for four quarters.
Kirk Cousins ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) at Detroit Lions (52.5 total)
Kirk Cousins had a rough go last week, but that’s to be expected against the Jets defense. Imagine saying that before the season. Anyways, Cousins has had some tough matchups this past month, playing against the Bills, Cowboys, Patriots, and Jets. He was able to put up two solid performances against the Bills and Patriots but two duds against the Cowboys and Jets.
The Lions defense has actually looked fairly solid as of late, allowing just 5.8 and 6.0 yards per attempt to Trevor Lawrence and Josh Allen, respectively. The Lions play the fifth-most man coverage in the league, which has stumped Cousins this year. He’s 29th and 25th in the league in completion percentage and yards per attempt against man.
He had a pedestrian 18.2 DraftKings points when these teams met in Week 3. This game has the highest total of the week by far, making it a prime target in all formats this weekend, with Cousins being an easy way to gain access.