Sunday opens with an NFC matchup between the Bucs and Lions. The Lions are listed as 6.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 48.5 points.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Amon-Ra St. Brown continues his impressive streak, notching his fifth-straight game over 20 DraftKings points. He’s topped 100 yards in four of five games while finding the end zone in four of five games as well.
St. Brown did damage against this Tampa Bay defense in Week 6, catching 12-of-15 targets for 124 yards and a touchdown. The Bucs have allowed the third-most yards per game to opposing WR1s and have given up a lot of production on both the perimeter and inside. That’s good news for St. Brown, as he nearly splits his time between the slot and perimeter. He’s the top overall option.
From one stud receiver to another as Mike Evans leads the way on the Tampa Bay side. Evans was held in check last week, with three catches for 48 yards on seven targets. He had a big drop that could’ve resulted in a touchdown, which feels like a routine at this point.
Evans had a similarly fruitless day in Week 6, catching 4-of-10 targets for 49 yards against Detroit. He had one big drop in this game, and he was running wide-open for a long touchdown, but the ball got tipped at the line and intercepted.
Detroit has allowed the third-most DraftKings points per game to opposing receivers, as well as the third-most yards per target to perimeter receivers, where Evans runs 3/4 of his routes.
It was just a middling day fantasy-wise, but Jared Goff played well and led the Lions to a victory over the Rams. He completed over 80% of his passes while averaging more than ten yards per attempt. He gets a soft landing spot here against Tampa Bay, as they’ve allowed the seventh-most DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Tampa Bay likes to send pressure and get after the quarterback, as we saw last week against the Eagles. Detroit handled the heat well in their first matchup, as Goff threw for 353 yards and two touchdowns. Despite blitzing heavily, Tampa Bay only mustered a 28% pressure rate. If they’re unable to create more pressure, Goff will likely have a similarly successful day. If Tampa Bay can craft up ways to get home, Goff could struggle.
I was concerned about Baker Mayfield’s health and recent play going into last week’s matchup, and he proved me wrong by throwing for 337 yards and three touchdowns. Feasting on the Eagles defense isn’t a very impressive feat, but he gets another carvable opponent here.
Mayfield had a rough outing in the first matchup, having a potential 92-yard touchdown to Evans tipped and intercepted and missing another receiver for a 60-yard touchdown. Detroit has allowed the third-most DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks this year. Mayfield is a strong option.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
The midrange is teeming with options, as the Detroit running back duo leads the way. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery‘s time split carried into the postseason. Gibbs had eight carries and four catches, totaling 68 yards and a touchdown. Montgomery had 15 carries and one reception, totaling 68 yards and a touchdown.
This matchup is tough, and these backs cannibalize each other. Tampa Bay has allowed the ninth-fewest yards per carry to opposing backs and the third-fewest DraftKings points per game to the position. I prefer Gibbs of the two, as his pass-catching ability nudges him ahead despite the similar price tags.
Chris Godwin is listed as questionable, as he was limited Thursday due to a knee injury. It was just a walkthrough, and I don’t think he’s of any legitimate risk to miss this game. Godwin caught four of five targets in the Wildcard round, going for 45 yards and a touchdown.
He was successful in the first matchup, catching six of seven balls for 77 yards. This matchup is exploitable, making Godwin a strong option.
Rachaad White follows, and he’s my favorite option thus far in the midrange. He saw 18 carries and three targets last week, totaling just 75 scrimmage yards. The matchup is daunting, as Detroit has allowed the fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing backs. White was held in check in the first matchup, taking seven carries for 26 yards and catching three of four targets for 12 yards.
His volume is hard to ignore, as he comes in with too cheap of a tag, in my opinion.
Sam LaPorta was surprisingly able to suit up last week and ran a route on 80% of the dropbacks. He only saw three targets, catching all three for 14 yards and a score. It’s unclear how banged up he is, but I’m assuming he’s fairly close to a full go.
Tampa Bay has allowed a tight end to reach the end zone in four of the past six weeks, including 95 yards to Evan Engram. LaPorta is an intriguing option in the midrange.
It’s important to monitor the status of Kalif Raymond, but he was a non-participant on Thursday. If he misses, we’ll likely see Josh Reynolds and Jameson Williams once again run a route on nearly every Goff dropback. I slightly prefer Reynolds, as he’ll be out there more and saw seven targets last week. Both are strong options, though.
Cade Otton had a great performance last week, catching eight of 11 targets for 89 yards while dropping a potential touchdown. He struggled to earn targets for most of the year, and Philadelphia has been prone to allow big games to tight ends. Detroit has been middle-of-the-pack against tight ends, as Otton is a fine midrange option.
Trey Palmer had a highlight reel 56-yard touchdown, but David Moore actually ran more routes and had a 44-yard touchdown of his own. Moore ran 18 routes to Palmer’s 13, leading me to prefer him for cheaper.
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NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Chase Edmonds ($2,400 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Chase Edmonds mixed in more than expected last week, handling seven carries and two targets. He’s a viable value piece.
- Kalif Raymond ($1,800 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): It’s unclear if Raymond will suit up, but he’s a viable cheap option if he goes. He’s shown an ability to earn targets when out there, and he’s quite cheap.
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