NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in Patriots-Cardinals

Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.

This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups.

Additionally, this piece focuses on DraftKings Showdown contests, but similar strategies are useful on FanDuel.

For my general Showdown strategy, you can read my Showdown primer.

My Favorite NFL DFS Angle in Patriots vs. Cardinals Showdown

It’s hard to get too cute on this slate when Rhamondre Stevenson is clearly the best play due to an obvious pricing mistake. Inexplicably priced at just $8800, Stevenson might have been too cheap even with a healthy Damien Harris. Barring injury, Stevenson is a lock to play a true bell-cow role and has shown legit pass-catching upside. His ownership will be astronomical, but rightly so.

Since the Stevenson play is so obvious, here are a few other considerations for tonight’s slate; first, Jakobi Meyers’ absence creates a situation where a Patriots receiver could be valuable for a change. Devante Parker saw the most significant boost last time Meyers was out (100% routes, nearly 29% target share) and figures to benefit again tonight. I will also be aggressively targeting Hunter Henry, who can work the middle of the field in Meyers’ absence against the Cardinals’ league-worst tight end defense in terms of DraftKings points per game.

On the Cardinals side, I am excited to play Greg Dortch at just $2200, who appears set to return to a profitable slot role for the Cardinals. Dortch has averaged nearly 8 targets per game without Rondale Moore active and provides a nice safety blanket for Kyler Murray against a formidable Patriots front seven.

Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider

General

• Max 3 players vs. opposing Defense
• Minimum salary cap 90%

Player Correlations

• Pair Captain Mac Jones with at least two Patriots pass-catchers
• Pair Captain Kyler Murray with at least one Cardinals pass-catchers (rushing upside plus James Conner’s receiving work makes me comfortable not forcing two)
• Pair Captain pass-catchers with at most one other pass-catcher from the same team

Player Groups

• Max two kickers and defenses.
• Max two Patriots wide receivers

Captain Pool (from highest to lowest priority)

Primary Targets

• Rhamondre Stevenson
• Deandre Hopkins

Secondary Targets 

• James Conner
• Marquise Brown
• Kyler Murray

Large-Field GPP Fliers

• Hunter Henry
• Devante Parker
• Nelson Agholor
• Patriots Defense
• Mac Jones