The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday presents a six-game main slate beginning at 7 p.m. ET on FanDuel and a five-game main slate commencing at 8 p.m. ET on DraftKings.
Point Guard
Stud
Against the top-seven teams in pace since the beginning of January — all of whom recorded at least 101 possessions per 48 minutes — Ricky Rubio has been remarkable (per our NBA Trends tool):
In fact, rotation players who’ve been projected for at least 20 minutes for the Jazz average a +3.68 DraftKings Plus/Minus, with Jonas Jerebko as the only one who failed to register in the positive. Adding to Rubio’s case is his production against the eight teams who have allowed the highest DraftKings Plus/Minus to point guards since the beginning of 2018 (min. 20 projected minutes ):
Only Eric Bledsoe has a higher DraftKings Plus/Minus among starting point guards against similar teams. Stacking the Jazz may be an unconventional tactic on this slate, but if you’re going to do so, make sure to include Rubio. Everyone in Utah’s projected starting lineup has a Bargain Rating of at least 90% on DraftKings.
Values
Damian Lillard is dealing with a left ankle ailment and is officially doubtful. Lillard has missed eight games already this season, and according to the NBA On/Off tool, Shabazz Napier has led the Blazers with a +12.1 FanDuel Plus/Minus in 34.8 minutes per game when Lillard has been unavailable. Napier is too cheap to pass up on FanDuel at $3,600.
Jeff Teague (knee) and Derrick Rose (ankle) are game-time decisions, and neither participated in Sunday’s loss to Utah. Tyus Jones started and provided 32.0 FanDuel points in 33.2 minutes against the top defense in the NBA. In 11 starts this season, he’s averaged a ridiculous 2.9 steals per game, and the Nuggets have committed the sixth-most turnovers per game (15.1). Jones will be relegated to a tournament play since the game doesn’t start until 10:30 p.m. ET and an update on either of the other two guards won’t likely be provided until after 8 p.m. ET.
Fast Break
Whether he’s in a Clippers or Rockets uniform, Chris Paul has historically punished the Blazers. His output against them this season has been solid when James Harden has played and elite in the game Harden missed:
You’ll read in the shooting guard section why primary ball handlers are solid bets against the Blazers. The chief concern is the likely absence of Lillard, which has translated into a 10.5-point spread in favor of Houston.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The Rockets have averaged a 120.3 Offensive Rating against the Blazers, a top-10 defense. That’s also Houston’s fourth-highest against any opponent. However, its 46.3% team assist rate against the Blazers is its lowest mark on the year. The assist rate was low because Blazers help defenders were glued to Rockets shooters at the 3-point line, allowing James Harden to isolate on switches and punish mismatches with little resistance. In the first meeting, Harden scored 48 actual points but dished out a season-low three assists. After missing the second meeting, Harden came back with 42 actual points to just seven assists against the Blazers less than three weeks ago. Harden has attempted 54 field goals and 29 free throws in just two games against the Blazers, and he’s averaged 63.0 DraftKings points in his last 12 games against them. Portland’s defensive plan appears simple: let Harden go off and contain everyone else. The video below illustrates how easy it is for him to score once he gets past his primary defender, and if the Blazers continue to employ a similar defense, Harden should dominate:
Value
DeMarre Carroll (hip) has been ruled out of Thursday’s game, which should create a void in Brooklyn’s front court. Nevertheless, the last two times Carroll was unavailable, Joe Harris slid into the starting lineup and provided a modest 21.2 and 14.9 FanDuel points. Harris started Tuesday with Allen Crabbe (illness) unavailable, but Crabbe is no longer on the injury report. Crabbe and Harris each cost no more than $4,200 on FanDuel, but both are heavily reliant on 3-pointers for their production. Crabbe has added blocks to his arsenal lately, recording 11 in the last 10 games to help elevate his floor. Harris didn’t record a rebound, assist, block, or steal in 21 minutes on Tuesday, but his drastic home vs. road shooting splits have favored the road this season: he’s shot 45.1% from deep on the road but 37.9% at the Barclays Center.
Devin Harris is entrenched in the Nuggets rotation, and he costs the minimum on FanDuel. His recent production with Gary Harris (knee) unavailable hasn’t inspired, but the Nuggets lead all teams with a +2.96 DraftKings Plus/Minus when favored at home this season — projected 20 minutes minimum. Harris has played at least 20 minutes in eight straight games and is a cheap flyer.
Fast Break
CJ McCollum leads the Blazers with 40.53 DraftKings points per game, a 32% usage rate and a 24.1% assist rate when Lillard hasn’t played this season. In the two games the Blazers have been double-digit underdogs without Lillard since last season, McCollum recorded 34.0 and 57.25 DraftKings points. McCollum’s current salary has him implied for 35.57 DraftKings points, and he should be the main beneficiary of Lillard’s absence. Alas, the Blazers’ advanced metrics have declined considerably when Lillard is off the court, and Wade Baldwin could garner plenty of the touches in the second half if the game devolves into a blowout early:
Donovan Mitchell is in the same boat as Rubio. In three games against the Clippers this season, he’s averaged 34.42 DraftKings points per contest. Since the beginning of March, Mitchell hasn’t notched less than 32 DraftKings points while averaging 37.6 DraftKings points per game. Mitchell provides a safe floor at a reasonable salary. McCollum costs roughly the same, but may have higher ownership.
Small Forward
Studs
Kevin Durant, LeBron James and Giannis Antetokounmpo all cost at least $11,000 on FanDuel. Durant is excluded from consideration on DraftKings as the Warriors-Pacers game is not included on the main slate.
James has been elite against the Wizards since last season and averages a triple-double against them in three meetings this year:
The Wizards have allowed opponents to convert 64.5% of their attempts within 5 feet of the rim since the trade deadline, which is the league’s sixth-highest mark. James leads all players over that span with 10.3 attempts per game from within 5 feet and converts at 71.6% clip, ranking second to Anthony Davis with 16.0 points per game in the paint. Against teams who’ve struggled to defend the rim over the last three months, James has averaged 62.63 DraftKings points when Isaiah Thomas isn’t in the lineup. James also leads the NBA in assists per game since Thomas and Dwyane Wade were traded. He may be the safest stud on the slate as he leads all players with the highest projected floor in our NBA Models.
Durant has been elite himself in games where Stephen Curry (knee) and Andre Iguodala (knee) are out but Draymond Green and Klay Thompson are available. In those five games, Durant posted FanDuel point totals of 57.2, 66.4, 48.5 (in 30 minutes), 59.2 and 55.0. In the game preceding those — the one where Curry left after two minutes due to an ankle injury and didn’t return — Durant notched 65.2 FanDuel points. His usage rate spiked to 37.4% across those six games. As the cheapest of the three high-priced small forwards, he’s underpriced.
Antetokounmpo has a storied history against the Nets, one that I presume was cultivated by former Nets player and Bucks coach Jason Kidd. Since last season, Antetokounmpo has been largely successful and highly-owned when facing the Nets:
Recently, Antetokounmpo hasn’t quite flashed LeBron-type upside, alternating performances slightly above or below 50 DraftKings points. Giannis is the pivot option off James on the DraftKings main slate. He has minimal appeal on FanDuel where all three are available, however.
Value
Joe Ingles is technically probable due to a right knee contusion. Nonetheless, he faces a team that allows the third-most 3-point attempts per game since trading Blake Griffin. Since the trade deadline, Ingles has converted 43% of his 6.6 attempts per game from downtown. He averages 30.67 DraftKings points against teams that allow at least 30.5 attempts per game from 3. In the last meeting against the Clippers, Ingles piled up 38.0 DraftKings points while connecting on half of his 10 three-point attempts.
Fast Break
Kelly Oubre averages 30.42 DraftKings points in three games against the Cavs this season and has exceeded salary-based expectations in six straight games against them going back to last season. Oubre ranks third on the Wizards with 31.7 minutes per game in games against Cleveland, starting once when Otto Porter was unavailable. Oubre has made only two of his last 33 three-point attempts but that hasn’t stopped him from continuing to hoist them. He’ll be a gamble on a slate loaded with small forwards, but coach Scott Brooks has shown trust in him against the Cavs in the past.
Since joining the Pacers at the end of last season, Lance Stephenson at home has been stellar compared to his road persona:
Stephenson costs the minimum on FanDuel after a lackluster four-game road trip.
Power Forward
Stud
Kevin Love and Draymond Green are the highest-priced power forwards on the slate. (Green is not available on DraftKings due to the Warriors game being excluded.) With all the other top spends on the slate, spending down at power forward will likely be the popular decision. Love has a solid matchup as the Wizards lack an interior defensive presence.
Value
Jabari Parker broke out for 58 DraftKings points against the Nuggets two games ago and followed that up with 22.25 DraftKings points on Tuesday. He continues to come off the bench, but in the last two games he played at least 30 minutes in consecutive games for just the second time this season.When the Bucks have been favored at home, Parker has averaged a +3.44 Plus/Minus. And just as his minutes are getting extended, his salary has begun to decrease.
Fast Break
Al-Farouq Aminu has one true dud against the Rockets since joining the Blazers. Otherwise, he’s been consistent:
Aminu’s per-minute production over the last month ranks third among Blazers rotation players. Like Oubre, Aminu could fly under the radar.
Six teams have a defensive rating south of 104.0 since the beginning of January, and Tobias Harris has averaged 41.45 DraftKings points in five games against such teams since joining the Clippers. When Danilo Gallinari (hand), Milos Teodosic (foot), Jawun Evans (groin) and Avery Bradley (groin) have been off the court, Harris averages 1.09 DraftKings points per minute, which exceeds his monthly mark of 1.00. The matchup against the Jazz has been an avoidable spot much of the season, but the Clippers average a 110.2 Offensive Rating against the Jazz, scoring at least 102 points in each game.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns has not been denied by the Nuggets over the last two seasons. Before fouling out in 30 minutes against them at the end of December, he contributed 48.25 DraftKings points:
Paul Millsap didn’t play in the first two Nuggets-Timberwolves games this season, but Jimmy Butler did. Millsap could start out on Towns, leaving Nikola Jokic on Taj Gibson. While it’s been smooth sailing for Towns against the Nuggets, Millsap may throw a wrench into Towns’ dominance. There’s also a chance Butler returns following a lengthy injury hiatus.
Values
John Henson‘s last five games against the Nets require further inspection:
Henson played between 21-30 minutes in each game and started the most recent four. He also tallied 12 combined blocks and 14 total assists. While the assists appear fluky, Henson has been consistent enough over the last seven games to at least consider.
Since moving into the starting lineup, Jarrett Allen averages 27.45 DraftKings points against teams with a rebound rate below 49%. Allen was limited to one field goal attempt in 19.8 minutes during Tuesday’s loss as coach Kenny Atkinson expanded his nine-man rotation to 12 and gave Jahlil Okafor minutes against his former team. It’s unclear if Atkinson will continue to manage his rotation as such, but with Carroll sidelined, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson may have to spend most of his minutes at power forward rather than siphon playing time at center.
Fast Break
Nikola Jokic has topped 58.0 DraftKings points in each of his past four games. He has a home matchup with a Wolves team that has been horrible on the road defensively. In fact, the Wolves and Nuggets are the only teams with a winning record that rank in the bottom-10 in defensive efficiency on the road. The Nuggets are implied to score a slate-high 115.0 points, and when they’ve been favored at home and implied to score at least 110.0 points this season, Jokic has averaged a team-high +5.16 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Towns and Jokic are the no-brainer top spends, but Jusuf Nurkic is significantly cheaper and has been able to produce on par with Towns and Jokic on a per-minute basis over the last month. In three games against the Rockets since joining the Blazers, Nurkic supplied 40.25, 25, and 51.75 DraftKings points, with the 51.75-point outburst occurring only three weeks ago and in just 27 minutes. Like McCollum, minutes could be an issue for Nurkic if the Rockets forge ahead early.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: Kevin Durant and LeBron James.
Photo credit: Noah Graham — Getty Images.
