This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Max Scherzer: Pitcher, Nationals
Each slate is different, but rostering Scherzer at his high salary isn’t easy. The last time he graced a slate with an abundance of aces, sharp high-stakes tournament players preferred a different path at pitcher (per our DFS Ownership Dashboard):
In a slate with Corey Kluber, Carlos Martinez, and James Paxton, Scherzer once again could have reduced ownership.
Per usual, Scherzer leads the slate with an 11.0 K Prediction against a projected Tampa Bay lineup currently implied for a slate-low 2.7 runs and above-average 25.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the last year. Only 58 pitchers in our database have had a K Prediction higher than 10.0, and they averaged a +3.15 DraftKings Plus/Minus, and fewer than 10 of them had Vegas data comparable to Scherzer’s. Even though it’s extreme, his high K Prediction is warranted: His 12.86 SO/9 is rare, and he has averaged 11.0 strikeouts per game over his last five starts, including a 4 K stinker against the Marlins on May 25. That’s not likely to happen again today, and the Nationals are slate-best -247 favorites against the Rays.
Sean Newcomb: Pitcher, Braves
If you’re looking for an inexpensive alternative to Scherzer, Newcomb is an option, as he’s $4,100 cheaper on DraftKings. His 6.7 K Prediction could be better, but it’s still sixth best on the slate, and he easily has the best recent Statcast data with a batted-ball distance of 173 feet, exit velocity of 84 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 17%. Pitchers with similar salaries, K Predictions and Statcast data have historically provided tremendous value on DraftKings (per our Trends tool):
Newcomb’s 1.46 WHIP is not impressive, but he has allowed very few home runs over the past 12 months with his 0.73 HR/9. He faces a projected Padres lineup with an enticing 27.8% strikeout rate and bottom-two .272 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against left-handed pitchers over the past year.
Mitch Moreland: First Baseman, Red Sox
The Red Sox possess a top-three Team Value Rating of 83 on FanDuel and are one of three teams implied for 5.6 runs or more:
Tigers pitcher Artie Lewicki has allowed a ton of hard contact lately with a 95-mph exit velocity and slate-worst 61% hard-hit rate. He also has a slate-low 1.89 WHIP over the past year.
Projected to hit cleanup, Moreland stands out as arguably the main slate’s top batting option, especially on FanDuel with his 95% Bargain Rating. He has unreal Statcast numbers, including a recent batted-ball distance of 240 feet, exit velocity of 96 mph and hard-hit rate of 51%. He’s also on the positive side of his splits, sporting an impressive .350 wOBA and .241 ISO against righties over the past 12 months.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Sean Newcomb
Photo credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
