The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Cristopher Sanchez (L) $11,500 Philadelphia Phillies (-172) at Toronto Blue Jays
Prior to his last start, Cristopher Sanchez was on an absurd streak of 50.2 scoreless innings pitched. That came to an end against the Padres in what was still a fine start, as he allowed just that one earned run while striking out eight over seven innings. That makes six straight starts of at least 26 DraftKings points, with just one of those outings going for less than 30.
To say he’s been on a hot streak is thus a bit of an understatement, but the underlying numbers suggest he might just be that good. His strikeout rate is right around 30%, his BABIP of .327 is actually a bit on the “unlucky” side, and his 1.80 FIP is barely above his 1.46 ERA. Plus, he gets to face a Blue Jays team tonight that ranks bottom five against left-handed pitching.
The question becomes whether he can strike out enough batters to justify his massive salary, though. While Toronto isn’t scoring many runs against lefties, they also strike out at a low rate. Their 19.3% mark is also bottom three against left-handed pitching. Sanchez is almost certainly going to bring that number up a bit, but will it be enough?
For me, the decision in GPPs comes down to ownership. Since we have Sanchez at a fairly moderate level, I’d say it’s worth scraping together the salary to roster him. The opportunity is there to move past a huge chunk of the field if he has another massive game. He’s also a near lock for cash games, with the highest median and floor projection, to go with by far the best Vegas odds on the slate.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Gavin Williams (R) $8,700 Cleveland Guardians (-127) vs. New York Yankees
At first glance, rostering a pitcher against the Yankees feels like a bad idea. They’re one of the league’s better lineups, with a 110 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. The calculus changes without the presence of Aaron Judge, though, who is out for roughly a month with a rib injury. Without their captain and his 150 wRC+, they’re more like an average offense than an elite one.
Gavin Williams has done well against average offenses this season. His 3.20 ERA and 29% strikeout numbers are both borderline elite – although both are probably the result of at least a little luck. His swinging strike rate and ERA indicators suggest he’s been solid, though not quite as good as those marks suggest.
He also just faced this Yankees team in his last start, holding them to three runs and four hits over 5.1 innings, good for 19 DraftKings points. Considering his price, that would be a fine outcome, and this time he’s at home in Cleveland in a slightly better park for pitchers. I do have some concerns about pitchers facing a team consecutively – Sanchez’s streak was snapped in his second straight start against the Padres – but that’s more of a hunch than anything solid.
Ultimately, he’s underpriced for the matchup he actually has, leading to a slate-leading Pts/Sal projection. That makes him a strong play in all contest types
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Kyle Harrison (L) $10,500 Milwaukee Brewers (-162) at Athletics
The 24-year-old Kyle Harrison is in the midst of a breakout season, with a 1.50 ERA and strikeout rate above 30%. He also gets to face an A’s team that struggles against lefties, sporting a 93 wRC+. Against a team with a top-five strikeout rate, he should be able to miss enough bats to negate the park factors, but he’s a slightly risky tournament-only option.
Walker Buehler (R) $7,200 San Diego Padres (-135) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Walker Buehler is at the other end of the Park Factor spectrum, in that he’s facing a team moving from their hitter-friendly home park to one better suited for pitchers. The Reds also have a top-three strikeout rate against righties and rank 25th in wRC+. Buehler has been pretty rough since returning from his 2023 injury, but his FIP and xFIP are both below 4.00, so there’s a case for some optimism that he improves his 4.53 ERA.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Houston Astros:
The Astros have been somewhere in the range of solid to good offensively this season, with slightly above-average numbers against righties and overall. That should be more than enough to put some runs on the board against Grayson Rodriguez ($7,000) tonight.
Rodriguez has allowed more runs than he’s completed innings this season, leading to a 9.50 ERA through four starts. While I’m sure he’s not truly that bad, all of his ERA predictors range from 5.00 to 7.00. That’s also pretty bad.
Houston has one of the best team totals on the slate given this extremely juicy matchup, but the team still has reasonably affordable salaries. There are other very appealing offenses, but Houston gives you the most salary flexibility for pitchers, so the Astros get the nod here.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jackson Chourio OF ($5,700) Milwaukee Brewers at Athletics (Jeffrey Springs)
The most appealing of those is the Brewers, who have a massive 6.2-run implied total as they take on the A’s in Las Vegas.
One factor to this is the matchup with Jeffrey Springs ($6,500), who has a 4.37 ERA this season. That’s not terrible, but it’s certainly not good. Unfortunately, the Brewers are on the wrong side of their platoon splits against lefties, so it makes sense to target specific players in this matchup rather than a full stack. PlateIQ gives some clues as to the best choice:
Chourio is the obvious answer, and he’s second only to Yordan Alvarez in median and ceiling projections among all hitters.
Luke Raley OF ($4,200) Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles (Chris Bassitt)
I’m always at least somewhat interested in stacking the Mariners on the road for a few reasons. The first is that road teams always provide some slight extra value, since they get a guaranteed ninth inning of at-bats. More importantly, T-Mobile Park in Seattle is brutal for hitters, so their prices are somewhat suppressed by that.
Luke Raley is a potentially sneaky option thanks to him hitting fifth in their lineup. He’s a bit short in terms of plate appearances to qualify but would be a top-20 hitter by wRC+ were he to be eligible. He also is much better against righties (.904 OPS) than lefties. There’s some risk he gets pinch-hit for against a southpaw reliever – he rarely hits against lefties, which is why he doesn’t have the plate appearances to qualify for leaderboards – but at $4,200 I’ll take my chances.
Shea Langeliers C ($5,200) Athletics vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Kyle Harrison)
The last team I wanted to highlight was the A’s. They’re likely to be fairly low-owned, despite coming into the game with an implied total above five runs. That’s due to the popularity of Harrison as a pitching option, as well as their rough numbers against lefties.
Langeliers is a massive exception to their platoon splits, though. He’s hitting .328 with a 1.067 OPS off southpaws, with six home runs in just 66 plate appearances. Those are elite numbers and could give Harrison trouble tonight.
Langeliers is a bit overpriced for his likeliest outcome, but his ceiling is massive. Considering the leverage he’d provide against Harrison lineups, he’s worth a sprinkle in some of your rosters.
Interested in more MLB action? Check out Polymarket and use our Polymarket promo code.
Pictured: Cristopher Sanchez
Photo Credit: Imagn
