The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Joe Ryan (R) $9,800 Minnesota Twins (-155) vs. Kansas City Royals
Ryan has quietly become one of the most reliable starters in baseball. He’s had an ERA of 3.60 or better in three of the last four seasons, and he’s currently sitting at 3.20.
Ryan excels in two key areas: strikeouts and walk prevention. He ranks in the 86th percentile for strikeout rate, while his walk rate is in the 95th percentile. That unsurprisingly makes him one of the leaders in K%-BB%, which is littered with the top arms in baseball. He ranks sixth in the league in that metric, trailing only Jacob Misiorowski, Jacob deGrom, Paul Skenes, Cristopher Sanchez, and Cam Schlittler. Those might be the five best pitchers in the league.
As a result, Ryan’s expected metrics are slightly better than his actual marks. His xERA checks in at 3.10, while his FIP is a sparkling 2.78. Ryan allowed an uncharacteristic four runs in his last outing, but he allowed two earned runs or fewer in his six previous outings. He also has three straight starts with nine punchouts.
Ryan stands out as one of the top options on Saturday’s slate. He’s taking on the Royals, who have been a dreadful offensive team this season. They’re 29th in the league in runs per game, and they’re 23rd in wRC+ vs. right-handers. That matchup gives Ryan some of the best Vegas data on the slate. The Royals are tied for the lowest implied team total, while the Twins are the second-largest favorite.
Add it all up, and Ryan checks all the boxes. His strikeout numbers might not be as good as usual – the Royals are merely 15th in strikeout rate vs. right-handers – but he doesn’t need double-digit strikeouts to pay off his reasonable price tag.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Eduardo Rodriguez (L) $7,500 Arizona Diamondbacks (-160) vs. Washington Nationals
It has been a fantastic couple of months for Rodriguez. He was the starting pitcher for Venezuela in their WBC win over the USA, and he’s followed that up with an impressive start with the Diamondbacks. He owns a 2.21 ERA, and the Diamondbacks have won nine of his last 10 starts. Rodriguez has accumulated five wins of his own during that stretch, so he’s been a solid source of fantasy value.
Rodriguez is in another good spot to pick up a win on Saturday. The Nationals are not the punching bag that they’ve been in the past, but Rodriguez is still the largest favorite on the slate at -160. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and moneyline odds have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.32 (per the Trends tool).
It is fair to note that Rodriguez has been fortunate this season. His xERA is significantly higher than his actual mark, so he’s not going to continue to dominate forever. Still, there’s no reason anything has to change on Saturday. Some regression is already baked into his price tag, so he stands out as one of the better values at the position.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Shane McClanahan (L) $9,500 Tampa Bay Rays (-154) at Miami Marlins
McClanahan is in contention with Ryan for the top pitcher spot on this slate. His metrics look extremely similar on paper. He’s a -154 favorite, while the Marlins’ implied team total is tied with the Royals for lowest on the slate. The big difference is that McClanahan just isn’t quite as good as Ryan in a vacuum. His numbers are slightly worse across the board, particularly from a strikeout standpoint. The Marlins also have a worse strikeout rate than the Royals, giving Ryan the edge. Still, both guys make plenty of sense on this slate.
Spencer Strider (R) $10,400 Atlanta Braves (-115) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Strider is the priciest of Saturday’s arms, and he could check in at an ownership discount compared to Ryan and McClanahan. His Vegas data isn’t nearly as strong in a tough matchup vs. the Pirates, but Strider is capable of dominating against anyone. He has elite strikeout metrics, ranking in the 94th percentile or better for both K and Whiff rate, and he’s coming off eight punchouts in his last outing.
Tatsuya Imai (R) $6,800 Houston Astros (-110) vs. Athletics
Imai was a big free agent from Japan, but he hasn’t quite lived up to the billing so far. He owns a 5.52 ERA, and his expected statistics aren’t much better. Still, Imai threw the first six innings of the Astros’ combined no-hitter two starts ago, and he has another start with nine strikeouts. He has more upside than the typical pitcher in this price range, and he gets to face an Athletics lineup that is less intimidating away from their small home ballpark.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
The Phillies and White Sox will square off in a matchup that is expected to be the highest-scoring on the main slate. The total sits at a juicy 10.0 runs, and with the Phillies listed as -133 favorites, they earn a slate-best 5.3 implied run total.
After a dreadful start to the year – that led to their manager being fired – the Phillies are right back in the thick of things in the NL. They went 18-10 in May and are 4-0 in June, propelling them to 34-29 for the year. That’s good enough for second place in the NL East and a Wild Card spot if the playoffs started today.
Their pitching staff has done most of the heavy lifting this season, but the offense should contribute on Saturday. They’ll start things against an opener in Brandon Eisert, but Sean Burke is expected to pitch the bulk of the innings in relief. Burke has been a roughly league-average pitcher this season, and he’s certainly not someone they need to fear. The weather conditions also look extremely favorable for hitting, which is part of why this total is so high.
How to stack the Phillies is an interesting question. You’ll certainly want to use Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Trea Turner, who are the team’s top three hitters. THE BAT X likes the idea of pairing them with Adolis Garcia and J.T. Realmuto. While stacking a lineup 1-2-3-7-8 isn’t typical, it still offers plenty of correlation. After the first inning, you’ll have a stretch from No. 7 through No. 3 in the order where you’ll have all five batters come to the plate in a six-batter stretch. It should also help for ownership purposes.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Josh Bell, 1B ($2,600) Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals (Luinder Avila)
Bell owns the top projected Plus/Minus in our blended projection set for his matchup vs. Avila. The Royals’ right-hander has split time between the bullpen and the rotation this season, and he hasn’t been particularly impressive in either role. He owns a dreadful 1.71 WHIP through his 26.1 innings, thanks in part to a sky-high 5.47 walks per nine innings.
Bell stands out as one of the best pure values on DraftKings, with his $2,600 price tag resulting in a 95% Bargain Rating. He’s also expected to occupy the cleanup spot in the Twins’ lineup and gives a bit of added correlation to Ryan at pitcher. If Bell does some damage at the plate, it increases the chances for Ryan to pick up a W.
Spencer Steer, 2B/OF ($4,200) Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals (Matthew Liberatore)
Steer will face a southpaw on Saturday, which creates a bit of value at $4,200. He’s a much better hitter in that split than he is against right-handers, which means he’s typically a bit underpriced in those matchups (via Plate IQ):
This is another game that is expected to feature some offense, with the total currently sitting at 9.5 runs. The Reds are underdogs in this matchup, but as the road team, their batters are guaranteed nine innings at the dish.
Ivan Herrera, C ($4,500) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds (Nick Lodolo)
On the other side of that matchup, Herrera stands out as a premium target at catcher. Catcher is not typically a glamorous position for fantasy baseball, but Herrera is a catcher in name only. He has spent the vast majority of his time as a designated hitter this season because his bat is simply too good to take out of the lineup.
Herrera’s numbers are slightly down in 2026, but he has raked against left-handers. He owns a 170 wRC+ in that split, and three of his seven homers have come against southpaws.
Herrera has strong median and ceiling projections on this slate, rivaling those of players with price tags $1,000 higher.
Pictured: Shane McClanahan
Photo Credit: Imagn
