The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Blake Snell (L) $8,700 Los Angeles Dodgers (-213) at Los Angeles Angels
Friday’s 12-game slate is the start of Rivalry Weekend in Major League Baseball, with regional rivalries on the scoreboard and a few top matchups of teams in the same city. The Dodgers and Angels meet in Anaheim for another installment of the Freeway Series, and on Friday, the Dodgers will give the ball to veteran Blake Snell for his second start of the season.
In the favorable matchup, Snell has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections in the FantasyLabs Projections, and he also has the top Plus/Minus projection of the 24 probable starting pitchers since his salary is still much lower than the other elite options like Cam Schlittler ($10,500) and Spencer Strider ($9,200).
Snell had a disappointing first outing but still showed signs of finding good form. He gave up five runs on six hits in only three innings against the Braves, but he did get five strikeouts and threw 77 pitches. If he continues to ramp up, he won’t be far from a full workload in this outing and should be able to at least go the minimum to qualify for the win, which he has a good chance of securing since the Dodgers are the heaviest favorite of the night on the Vegas dashboard.
The Angels should be a good matchup for Snell since they have the highest K% of any team in the majors and are hitting only .232 as a team this season. Even with his workload not at 100%, Snell has the highest strikeout prediction of the night on Friday due to the matchup, and he is a strong option to save some salary but still get a stud arm to build around.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Jack Leiter (R) $7,100 Texas Rangers (-110) at Houston Astros
Behind only Snell, Jack Leiter has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection of all the starting pitchers on the board. Leiter has had some inconsistent outings this year, but he has also shown a very high ceiling. He comes at an affordable salary, just over $7,000, and he has the upside to deliver great value if he builds on his recent momentum.
He had 21.4 DraftKings points in his last road start, which was early in May against the Tigers. Even though he allowed five runs, he ended up with a good total due to his season-high 10 strikeouts. Leiter had six strikeouts in his last start, but he only lasted 4 2/3 scoreless innings since he also issued five walks. Even without a win, he earned 17.7 DraftKings points since he worked around his control issues.
Leiter is only 1-3 in his eight starts, with a 4.85 ERA and 4.35 FIP. However, his recent outings and his strikeout upside make him a solid value play against the Astros, according to the FantasyLabs projections.
Houston’s offense has run hot and cold this season, but the Astros are only hitting .231 at home with a .317 wOBA. Both of those marks are in the bottom 10 in the MLB in the split, and they also have the fourth-highest K% at home in the majors.
Leiter is a high-risk play after his wildness in his last outing, but he brings a high enough ceiling to be a strong value consideration.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Tanner Bibee (R) $7,400 Cleveland Guardians (-135) vs. Cincinnati Reds
In the battle of the Buckeye State, the Guardians host the Reds this weekend, and on Friday, Tanner Bibee will make his 10th start of the season, still searching for his first win. His recent results have been trending up, though, and his ownership looks like it will be low, setting him up as a good pivot play to consider for GPP builds.
Bibee’s overall numbers are inflated by a few disastrous outings. He is 0-5 with a 4.17 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 4.39 FIP overall in his nine starts, but in his last five games, he has a 2.67 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 4.00 FIP. He has 27 strikeouts in 27 innings in those five starts as well, averaging 15.9 DraftKings points per outing.
Bibee was even better than that in his last start, racking up 27.1 DraftKings points by holding the Twins to one run on one hit in six innings while striking out nine. That start was at home, where he has an impressive 1.63 ERA in 27 2/3 innings this year with 26 strikeouts. He has held opponents to a .188 average at Progressive Field but allowed a .324 batting average in his road starts.
The Reds’ lineup has been solid this season, but Bibee has enough history and momentum to still be a good leverage option. While his season numbers are still scary, his recent performances and numbers at home indicate he could be a great way to grab value under $7,500 this Friday.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by projected points, belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
The Diamondbacks’ regional rivals are also a division rival, so they’ll take on Kyle Freeland ($5,800) and the Rockies at Coors Field this Friday night. It’s outstanding hitting weather in Denver, with the wind blowing out and warm temperatures. Freeland has a 6.00 ERA and 5.48 FIP through his first six starts this season and has allowed seven runs on 11 hits (including three homers) in his 10 2/3 innings at Coors Field. Righties have hit six of the seven home runs against Freeland this season, and the Diamondbacks’ switch-hitters will be on the strong side of that split as well.
The top five hitters in the lineup are highlighted in the stack above, with Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte bringing the top two ceiling projections of all hitters on the slate. Carroll has the highest ceiling even in a lefty-lefty matchup. He has averaged 9.3 DraftKings points per game in his last seven contests and had 18 DraftKings points Wednesday against the Rangers. Marte had 10 DraftKings points in that game and has hit safely in four of his last five. He is 17-for-48 (.354) in his career against Freeland with five doubles, a triple, and three homers.
Nolan Arenado is 5-for-10 with two doubles in his career against Freeland and will be coming back to Denver to face his former team. Ildemaro Vargas has been a breakout fantasy producer this season, averaging 9.3 DraftKings points per game with at least seven DraftKings points in four of his last five games. Geraldo Perdomo had his big breakout last year but has only hit .218 this year. Against Freeland, though, he can be a nice addition to the Snakes stack.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Heliot Ramos OF ($3,500) San Francisco Giants at Athletics (Aaron Civale)
Heliot Ramos has the highest Plus/Minus projection on the entire slate and brings excellent value potential at $3,500 in a great spot against Aaron Civale in Sacramento. Sutter Health Park is a great hitting environment, and Civale is a great place to use the Giants’ lineup, which is stacked with outstanding value plays.
Ramos is hitting .259 on the year with four homers and 20 RBI. He came up empty in his last two games against the Dodgers, going 0-7, but before that, he was on a roll, going 9-for-21 (.429) with four doubles and a homer in his previous five games, averaging 14 DraftKings points per game over that short stretch.
Civale has struggled at home, allowing a .338 batting average and .375 wOBA in Sacramento. The Giants have the top five players in Projected Plus/Minus in this matchup in the aggregate projection, and here’s how they stack up in PlateIQ:
Salvador Perez C ($2,900) Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals (Dustin May)
As a solid, affordable play behind the plate, Salvador Perez has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection at catcher behind only Gabriel Moreno at Coors Field. Perez has good upside in the middle of the lineup and brings a high ceiling with his run production potential.
The 36-year-old righty is hitting only .200 through his first 42 games this season, but he has six homers and 18 RBI. Four of his six homers have been off righties like May, and four have also come on the road. Perez homered on Monday with two hits against the White Sox and picked up two more hits on Wednesday. He has at least one hard-hit ball in six straight games and a 40.6% hard-hit rate this season.
He’ll be in a good matchup against Dustin May, who has allowed a .318 batting average and .352 wOBA in his 22 innings at home this year. Lefties have had most of the power success against him, but Perez brings more value in the aggregate projections since he’s typically so involved in the offense.
Connor Norby 1B/3B ($2,700) Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays (Jesse Scholtens)
Another great value under $3,000 to consider to fill in your roster for Friday is Connor Norby, who has the third-highest Plus/Minus projection on the slate at 1B and the second-highest at 3B.
Norby has hit safely in five of his last nine starts, picking up two doubles and three stolen bases. He stole two bases on Monday and racked up 21 DraftKings points, adding another stolen base and 11 DraftKings points on Wednesday. He has 9+ DraftKings points in three of his last five games and is a key part of the Marlins lineup as they take on their Sunshine State rivals from Tampa.
Jesse Scholtens has a 3.29 ERA but a 4.90 FIP and has been helped by an unsustainable .234 BABIP against him. Righties have hit him better than lefties, and he has a 4.08 ERA at home, where Norby and the Marlins will look to cause some regression this Friday.
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Pictured: Blake Snell
Photo Credit: Imagn
